Mailbag: Andrus, Wallace, Moreland, Aceves
Nine questions this week, so I went rapid fire with short-ish answers. Next week will be the final mailbag before Opening Day, so get those last-minute hot stove/Spring Training questions in before then.
Joseph asks: I know this is fast-forwarding a whole season and much can change between now and November, but what are the chances the NYY attempt to pry away Elvis Andrus from TEX after the season? They obviously have Jurickson Profar/Mike Olt for the left-side of the IF for the next 4-5 years. What package you think would get that done?
Andrus, 24, will be one year from free agency after the season, plus he’s a Scott Boras client and will definitely go out on the open market after 2014. You’re trading for one year of him and one year only.
That said, he’s so young and so good (particularly defensively) at a premium position that the cost for even one year of him will be high. I don’t think Texas would have much of a problem getting two top prospects for him, maybe even another one or two lesser pieces as well. Shortstop help is very hard to find. I’d wait until he becomes a free agent and just try to sign him, but that might require something like ten years and $180M at his age.
Mark asks: Would you trade Corban Joseph and Adam Warren for Brett Wallace?
I would not. I thought Wallace would be a dominant offensive player back during his draft days, but he’s got some holes in his swing and can be pitched to rather easily. I remember reading something once upon a time suggesting his big frame and very thick lower half contribute to his inability to adjust his swing. I think the Yankees could stick Joseph in the lineup and get similar, if not better production than they would get from Wallace. He could also fake non-first base spots as well.
Travis asks: Do you think that teams that are having rotation trouble are kicking themselves for not taking a chance on Vidal Nuno during the Rule 5 draft?
Eh, maybe one or two. The Nuno hype machine is a little out of control though. Sergio Mitre dominated Spring Training a few years ago, but it didn’t mean anything. Nuno has been impressive so far and I’m sure there’s a team or two who could use him in the rotation, but be careful not to overrate performance this time of year.
Peter asks: The Joba Chamberlain+ for Mike Olt rumors have swirled over the past week but what about Joba+ for Mitch Moreland?
Moreland, 27, has hit .264/.328/.441 (100 wRC+) with 40 homers in 295 big league games over the last three years. He’s a left-handed hitting first baseman (who can fake a corner outfield spot) with a big platoon split, so he’d need a righty hitting complement. Moreland would help the Yankees right now obviously, but I wouldn’t give up much more than Joba for him. Maybe just a secondary prospect from 20+ range of my preseason top 30. Lefty hitting first basemen with platoon issues aren’t the most difficult players to find.
J.R. asks: With some of the stories emerging about Alfredo Aceves, do you think “character” and “makeup” issues directly lead to his release from the Yankees?
Yes, absolutely. Non-tendering him after 2010 was still a questionable move — even with the injuries, did he really have zero trade value? — but it’s becoming more and more obvious why they did it. I’m in the camp that thinks the Yankees are overrating character and makeup these days, but Aceves is on a different level. He’s borderline Carlos Zambrano crazy.
John asks: I am one of the biggest Andy Pettitte fans you will find so this a very selfish question. Do you think his body can handle 175 innings a year at 40? If things go ok this year, would he consider closing for Mariano Rivera next year to extend his career as we know he has the mindset mastered?
I do worry about Pettitte holding up physically all season, as I wrote in the series preview post earlier this week. If he has trouble holding up this year, I think he would sooner retire than come back as a reliever. Pettitte doesn’t strike me as someone who would hang around when he isn’t effective. If he does hold up and throw those 175+ innings, bring him back as a starter. No doubt about it.
Mads asks: Not Yankees related, but would a trade between the Cardinals and Rangers with Profar and Oscar Taveras make sense? Cardinals get shortstop help and Rangers get an impact outfield bat, plus they extend Andrus.
It does make sense, but I think both teams would say no to this trade. Part of the reason is that teams love their own prospects more than everyone else’s, but it’s not quite surplus for surplus either. As I said before, Andrus is a Boras client and working out an extension might be damn near impossible at this point. The Cardinals have no other legitimate outfield prospects to replace Carlos Beltran after the season, plus Matt Holliday isn’t getting any younger. It sounds good on paper, but I think both teams would be wary.
Mark asks: Do you think Mark Teixeira’s recent injury coming on the heels of Alex Rodriguez’s hurts Robinson Cano’s chances of getting the 8-10 year offer both Boras and he were hoping to get from the team and increase the odds that he leaves the team after this year?
You’d think yes, right? But it probably won’t. There will be plenty of competition for Cano’s services next winter — Dodgers, Tigers, Angels, maybe even the Rangers, Nationals, and Phillies could pursue him — that his price will still be astronomical. I’m not convinced he’ll get ten years anyway, but eight definitely seems doable. We have to remember that many GMs don’t care about the back-end of huge contracts because the job turnover rate suggests it won’t be their problem.
Ryan asks: Explain to me how the Tigers can cut free of Brennan Boesch’s contract, owing very little on his untradeable contract. Yet, the Yankees can’t consider just releasing Alex Rodriguez because they would still owe him the $100+ million left on his contract. Is it the wording on the contract? Is it that they would still owe him too much, even if they didn’t owe him all of it, to really consider doing that? Seems weird that other teams can release their players and save at least a little cash and move on, but the Yankees are stuck with the albatross contracts to the bitter end. Is it just a perception? Also, not saying the Yankees should do this with A-Rod necessarily. It’s more of a curiosity as to why they don’t, can’t, or won’t. Thanks!
They can’t. One-year contracts for players with less than six years of service time (like Boesch) are not guaranteed. They can be released in Spring Training and owed less than the full amount — 30 days termination pay is released by March 13th, 45 days after that — which is what the Tigers did with Boesch. The Yankees pulled this same trick with Chad Gaudin a few years ago, releasing him in camp and paying him just a fraction of his original deal. A-Rod’s contract is fully guaranteed, as is nearly every free agent contract.
3/21 Camp Notes: Jeter, Hughes, Betances
The Yankees lost to the Twins tonight, and David Phelps got hit pretty hard (five runs in 3.2 innings). Mariano Rivera struck out the side in his scoreless inning while David Robertson — pitching for the second time in as many days — struck out just two in his scoreless inning. Slacker. David Aardsma fired a scoreless inning while Boone Logan surrendered one run in his one inning. Offensively, the Yankees were held to just one hit, a Robinson Cano single. Brett Gardner, Kevin Youkilis, and Travis Hafner all drew walks to round out the offense. Here’s the box score and here’s the rest from Tampa…
- Derek Jeter said his ankle is doing better following yesterday’s cortisone shot, and he hopes to resume baseball activities tomorrow. I’m guessing the team will give him one extra day of rest. He remains optimistic about Opening Day and says he’d be disappointed if he has to start the season on the DL. [Wally Matthews & Andy McCullough]
- For what it’s worth, Brian Cashman said Jeter will only play in minor league games for the rest of Spring Training. If he appears in any Grapefruit League game, they’d lose the ability to backdate a potential DL stint when the season opens. [Jack Curry]
- Phil Hughes will throw three innings in a minor league game tomorrow as he works his way back from a bulging disk. Still seems unlikely that Phil will be ready in time for the start of the season, but progress is good. [Chad Jennings & Meredith Marakovits]
- No surprise here, but Joe Girardi all but confirmed his top three starters to open the season will be CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and Andy Pettitte, in that order. Just in case you were beating the “Vidal Nuno for number two starter” or something. [Bryan Hoch]
- VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman said Mark Montgomery is not in the mix for the Double-A Trenton bullpen, meaning he will start the year with Triple-A Scranton. Lefty Shaeffer Hall might get pushed into the bullpen because of the numbers crunch. [Josh Norris]
- Dellin Betances was sitting 92-94 in a minor league game this afternoon. Mechanics were still a mess though, which is just par for the course for him. Newman told Norris they’ve working on shortening Betances’ stride. [Kiley McDaniel]
- Jose Campos is throwing pain-free, according to Newman. It’s a “coin-flip” as to whether he begins the year with Low-A Charleston or High-A Tampa. I suspect he’ll be with the River Dogs. [Norris]
The Yankees will be on the road to play this same Twins team tomorrow in Fort Myers. That game will not be broadcast anywhere, unfortunately.
Spring Training Game Thread: Robbie’s back
Fresh off his MVP-winning performance with the World Baseball Classic champion Dominican Republic, Robinson Cano is back in Yankees camp for the first time in about three weeks. He had 32 at-bats during the WBC, which put him at 50 total for Spring Training. That leads the Yankees. So yeah, Cano won’t be rusty despite being away from the team. Let’s just hope he avoids the injury bug that seems to be spreading through the clubhouse. Here’s the starting lineup, which looks an awful lot like what we figure to see for much of April…
- CF Brett Gardner
- LF Ichiro Suzuki
- 2B Robinson Cano
- 1B Kevin Youkilis
- DH Travis Hafner
- RF Brennan Boesch
- SS Eduardo Nunez
- 3B Jayson Nix
- C Frankie Cervelli
And on the mound is the St. Louis kid, David Phelps. Here is the night’s second strong, courtesy Chad Jennings.
Available Pitchers: RHP Mariano Rivera, RHP David Robertson, LHP Boone Logan, and RHP David Aardsma will all pitch. Robertson pitched yesterday and I believe this will be his first set of back-to-back appearances in camp.
Available Position Players: C Austin Romine, 1B Dan Johnson, 2B Gil Velazquez, SS Walter Ibarra, 3B Ronnie Mustelier, LF Addison Maruszak, CF Melky Mesa, and RF Thomas Neal are all scheduled to come off the bench.
Tonight’s game is scheduled to begin a little after 7pm ET and can be seen on YES and MLB.tv (no local blackout). Enjoy.
Rosenthal: Yankees are “asking around about everybody”
Via Ken Rosenthal: The Yankees are “asking around about everybody” in trade talks according to rival GMs. Andy Martino hears they’re still looking for first and third base help, specifically. Rosenthal suggests signing Kyle Lohse and trading either Ivan Nova or David Phelps for a bat, which is similar to the idea I floated about signing Shaun Marcum over the winter.
The idea of signing a pitcher and trading for a bat is a pipe dream more than anything — “I don’t think it would make any sense whatsoever,” said Brian Cashman to Rosenthal. “We have all of our pitching intact. Our problem is not our pitching. Pitching is our strength.” — mostly because there just don’t seem to be many bats available. Certainly not any kind of impact bat who will replace the production of Curtis Granderson or Mark Teixeira for a few weeks. Well, at least they’re trying.
2013 Season Preview: The Number Fours
Our season preview series continues this week with the starting rotation, though the format will change just slightly. Since there’s no clear starter/backup/depth lineage when it comes to starting pitchers, we’ll instead look at each type of pitcher — ace, number two, back-end, etc. — at different levels.
Number four starters are the black sheep of the rotation. The top three guys are important for obvious reasons, they’re the ones who will be expected the carry the team in the regular season and (especially) in the postseason. Fifth starters tend to be eminently replaceable and inconsequential. Fourth starters are just … there. Necessary, but not good enough to grab headlines and usually not bad enough to make teams seek a replacement.
St. Philip of Hughes
Phil Hughes is no kid anymore. He’s entering his seventh big league season and will qualify for free agency next winter. The 26-year-old has thrown 635 innings across 152 career games, so it wouldn’t be wrong to call him a veteran at this point. He’s been a top prospect, a rookie starter, an elite setup man, injured, an All-Star starting pitcher, a World Champion … you name it and it seems like Hughes has done it already.
Last summer, Phil followed up an awful April (7.88 ERA and 6.53 FIP) with five pretty strong months (3.90 ERA and ~4.32 FIP), with the end result being 32 starts and 191.1 innings that were almost exactly league average (4.23 ERA and 4.56 FIP). Hughes was maddeningly homer prone (1.65 HR/9) and that’s something that didn’t change all year. Even at his best he’d give up homers, they just happened to be solo homers because he never walked anyone (2.16 BB/9 and 5.6 BB%). Hughes quietly posted the tenth best K/BB ratio in the league (3.59), better than Hiroki Kuroda, Jered Weaver, and reigning Cy Young Award winner David Price.
A minor back injury forced Hughes out of his Game Three start in the ALCS, and another back issue (maybe related, maybe not) sidelined him for several weeks in camp. He threw a simulated game earlier this week and the next step could involve a minor league start, but the bottom line is that he may not be ready in time for the start of the season. If not, he’ll open the year on the DL and presumably rejoin the rotation in the second or third turn through. Barring no setbacks, of course.
Hughes is a bit of a polarizing figure in Yankeeland. Some see a failed prospect, others see a useful fourth starter, others see a guy about to enter the prime of his career. Who’s right? Probably all three to some extent. It’s extremely unlikely Hughes will ever develop into the frontline pitcher he was projected to become a few years ago, but at the same time it’s obvious he’s a big league caliber starter right now. At 26 and going on 27 this summer, taking a step forward isn’t out of the question at all. He fits all of that criteria.
As far as the Yankees are concerned, the Yankees will need Hughes to be better this season than he was last year. They lost a lot of offense and will rely on their pitching to carry them, so Phil needs to take that step forward and put together six strong months instead of just five. He’ll have to curb the homer problem a bit — won’t be easy in Yankee Stadium and the other offense-happy AL East parks, obviously — and most importantly, stay on the field. Whenever he gets back from the DL, he has to stay healthy and make every start the rest of the way.
As far as his impending free agency, all Hughes needs to do to ensure a fat contract is repeat his 2012 effort. Guys who are still three years away from their 30th birthday and have had three league average seasons in the last four years tend to get paid well, especially when they do it in the AL East and have a strong playoff track record*. Will the Yankees be the team to give him his next contract? I’m pretty convinced the answer is no given the plan to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold in 2014. It’s one thing to let guys like Nick Swisher and Russell Martin leave as free agents, but it’s another to let homegrown players like Hughes walk, especially at his age. I wouldn’t be too happy if that happens.
* Hughes got crushed in the 2010 ALCS (11 runs in 8.2 IP), but otherwise he’s been nails in the postseason. We’re talking a 2.61 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 31 innings. Doesn’t mean much, but it’s better than the alternative.
Knocking on the Door
The Yankees have a few back-end types slated for Triple-A Scranton, with the best of the bunch being 25-year-old Adam Warren. The right-hander got pounded in his big league debut (and only career MLB game to date) last summer, allowing six runs and ten of the 17 men he faced to reach base in 2.1 innings, but he was much more effective in Triple-A (3.71 ERA and 3.72 FIP in 152.2 IP). I ranked him 17th on my preseason top 30 prospects list in part because a little of his prospect shine has come off in the last year, mostly because he repeated Triple-A and didn’t take much of a step forward (if any) in his performance. Warren has the tools to start — specifically a five-pitch fix and an aggressive, bulldog approach — but will need something else to click to reach that number four starter ceiling. I like him best as a short reliever, where he can scrap some of the miscellaneous pitches and attack hitters with his two best offerings.
The Top Prospect
It’s Warren, but for the sake of variety I’m also going to mention left-hander Matt Tracy. The 24-year-old southpaw has just one season as a full-time pitcher under his belt, yet he still managed a 3.18 ERA (3.63 FIP) in 99 innings for High-A Tampa last year. He uses his big — listed at 6–foot-3 and 215 lbs. — frame to pitch downhill with a low-90s fastball and a fading changeup. The Yankees also have him working on a big-breaking curveball. Tracy signed as a college senior in the 24th round of the 2011 draft, so he’s a older than typical High-A prospects in terms of age but quite a bit younger in terms of pitching experience. I’m a fan and I ranked him 22nd on my preseason top 30, just a handful of spots behind Warren. The Yankees will aggressively bump Tracy up to Double-A Trenton this summer and he could force his way into the big league picture by the second half of 2014.
The Deep Sleeper
Probably going a little too far off the board here, but 21-year-old right-hander Cesar Vargas has the three-pitch mix and solid enough command to wind up near the back of a big league rotation. He pitched to a 3.13 ERA (2.96 FIP) in 46 innings with the rookie level Gulf Coast League affiliate and Short Season Staten Island last year, his first in the United States after three in the Dominican Summer League. Vargas obviously has a very, very long way to go, but all the tools are there for him to become a number four starter down the road. He just has to learn how to use them.
* * *
The Yankees and Hughes are in a very weird place this season. They obviously need him to be very good this summer, but the better he pitches the less likely it is he re-signs with the team after the year. Not exactly what we’re all used to, but such is life. Warren and Tracy give the team some decent back-end depth, plus they could serve as trade bait if the team needs to make a move or three. Cheap starters are always a hot commodity.
Passan: MLB targeting A-Rod (and Braun) in Biogenesis probe
Via Jeff Passan: MLB is primarily targeting Alex Rodriguez (and Ryan Braun) for potential discipline as part of their investigation into Anthony Bosch and his Biogenesis clinic in South Florida. “There’s no question in my mind they want those two guys,” said one of Passan’s sources.
A-Rod, 37, was linked to Biogenesis and performance-enhancing drugs back in January. MLB’s investigation isn’t gaining much steam, so the league has considered offering other players immunity (!) in exchange for cooperating with their efforts to bring down A-Rod and Braun according to Passan. That would be hilariously hypocritical. Apparently MLB is so concerned with PEDs that they’re willing to let some cheaters go unpunished just so they could beat their chest after bringing down some big names. How exactly would that make the game clean? Baseball would be dirtier than ever.