River Avenue Blues

What Went Wrong: Robinson Cano’s splits

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Over the next few weeks we’re going to spend some time reviewing the entire 2012 season, which featured another division title and unfortunately another disappointing playoff exit.

(Christopher Pasatieri/Getty)

While the 2012 season was a massive overall success for Robinson Cano, he was not without his faults this year. Faults that hadn’t previously existed either, so they were completely unexpected. I might be nitpicking here, but Robbie had season-long trouble in two areas that he had previously dominated, and I think they’re worth highlighting.

Runners in Scoring Position
The Yankees as a team suffered through (sometimes extreme) bouts of RISPFAIL, and Cano was public enemy number one. He hit a robust .320/.391/.571 with men on second and/or third from 2010-2011, but slid down to .268/.393/.436 in 2012. That doesn’t seem all that bad and it really isn’t, but prior to his insane 24-for-39 finish to the season, he’d hit a much more pedestrian .239/.374/.373 with runners in scoring position. Robbie was still getting on-base, but ten of his 30 walks in those situations were intentional and he simply wasn’t getting hits. That’s what Cano does, he piles up hits.

I think we can all understand the limited analytical value of RBI, though it was telling that Cano was unable to crack the 100 RBI plateau even though he set career bests in almost every other offensive category. He just didn’t hit when there were ducks on the pond. Instead of plating runner after runner, he was stranding them. Considering that he was the team’s only middle of the order bat to stay healthy all season, Cano’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position was a big negative in 2012.

Left-Handed Pitchers
This one was the real surprise, at least to me. Cano came into the 2012 season as a .308/.347/.496 career hitter, which was broken down into .311/.349/.505 against righties and .300/.343/.475 against lefties. Over the last two seasons, it was .310/.369/.532 against righties and .294/.340/.481 against lefties. He had a platoon split but it was not significant. This season though, Cano hit just .239/.309/.337 against lefties in 269 plate appearances. That’s not the hugest sample size in the world, but it happened nonetheless. Robbie didn’t produce against lefties in 2012.

It’s worth noting that although Cano’s performance against southpaws suffered this season, there was not a huge change in his batted ball performance compared to recent years…

 (vs. LHP) GB% FB% LD% HR/FB% BABIP
2010-2011 46.8% 33.3% 19.8% 17.4% 0.303
2012 47.2% 24.4% 28.4% 12.5% 0.272

Batted ball data can be tricky because one man’s fly ball is another’s line drive, but a ground ball is a ground ball and the important thing is that Robbie’s ground ball rate didn’t spike. The big jump in line drives means his BABIP should have increased significantly (in theory), but instead it went down. Does that automatically mean his performance against lefties is guaranteed to rebound next season? No, of course not. This is an indication that something other than a deterioration of skills may have been behind the performance slide though, which is good news. Considering his upcoming free agency, Robbie better hope he rebounds against lefties next year. That was a huge part of his value.

Cashman talks Martin, Ibanez

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Via Kristie Ackert: Brian Cashman chimed in on the status of both Russell Martin and Raul Ibanez, two of the team’s impending free agents, during a recent radio interview. The Yankees and Cashman love what Martin brings to the table but “me liking him doesn’t guarantee us keeping him.” The backstop turned down a three-year, $20M-something extension offer last year and honestly I would not be surprised if he winds up with something like three years and $27M on the open market. There will be competition for him, specifically from the deep-pocketed Red Sox and Rangers.

Meanwhile, Cashman also seemed to indicate that a second tour of duty for Ibanez was unlikely. He said he was a great one-year signing who hit some massively huge homers, but his price went up and he won’t be as cost effective. The Yankees landed him at a discount last winter because of his poor 2011 season with the Phillies. Raul won’t ever have to buy himself dinner in New York again, but I would have no problem with the team bringing in someone else to DH. Ibanez is the kind of guy you want to get rid of a year too early rather than a year too late.

What Went Right: Robinson Cano

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Over the next few weeks we’re going to spend some time reviewing the entire 2012 season, which featured another division title and unfortunately another disappointing playoff exit.

That swing. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens

Despite all of the attention given to the pitching staff in the offseason, the Yankees actually came into the season with more questions in the batter’s box than on the mound. Would Curtis Granderson hit for the same kind of power? Would Derek Jeter continue his second half resurgence? Would Alex Rodriguez stay healthy? Would Mark Teixeira reverse his downward trend? We could go on and on, but the one position player who came into the year with no concerns was Robinson Cano.

At age 29, Cano was New York’s best hitter and best all-around player for the third consecutive season. He also indisputably established himself as the best second baseman in baseball as Ian Kinsler’s performance took a step back and both Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia continued to battle injuries. Robbie entered his peak and became a legitimate MVP-caliber player in 2010, sustained that performance in 2011, and actually managed to crank it up a notch in 2012.

Cano played in at least 159 games for the sixth consecutive year (he played in 161 games in 2012) and either set or tied career-highs in doubles (48), homers (33), runs (105), total walks (61), unintentional walks (51), ISO (.238), SLG (.550), OPS (.929), OPS+ (149), wOBA (.394), wRC+ (150), bWAR (8.2), and fWAR (7.8). The two WAR totals place him second and fourth in all of baseball (including pitchers), respectively. All told, Robinson hit a marvelous .313/.379/.550 overall — including an insane .359/.423/.685 against righties, a 196 wRC+ that was the best in baseball by 20 (!) points (Mike Trout was second at 176) — and led the Yankees in almost every meaningful offensive category.

Down the stretch in September, when the Bombers were trying to fend off the Orioles for the division crown, Cano was at his absolute best. He closed the regular season out with nine consecutive multi-hit games (one shy of the franchise record), going 24-for-39 (.615) with seven doubles and three homers in the nine games. The Yankees went 6-3 in that stretch to clinch the division title. Robbie hit .347/.418/.581 overall in September and .335/.408/.589 in the club’s final 40 games. New York blew a ten-game division lead to the Orioles but never actually fell out of first place, and Cano’s production was a big reason why.

Obviously Robbie absolutely stunk in the postseason, there’s no denying that. He was the worst offender in a lineup that completely disappeared in the ALCS (and to a lesser extent, the ALDS), but those nine games in October aren’t nearly enough to nullify his regular season contributions. Cano was one of the five best players in baseball this season (at worst) and the Yankees don’t even sniff the postseason without him. He’s been their best and most important player for three years running, and considering that he just turned 30 earlier this week, Robinson will be expected to be the same massively productive player in 2013.

Sherman: Ichiro “strongly wants to stay” with Yankees

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Via Joel Sherman: Ichiro Suzuki greatly enjoyed his time with the Yankees this season and “strongly wants to stay” with the club next year. Sherman suggests a one-year contract in the $5-8M range would get it done.

“We haven’t had our pro scouting meetings yet (but) when we do we will rank the available players and we will see where [Ichiro] ranks and how it fits once everyone starts engaging the market,” said Brian Cashman. The Yankees are likely to let Nick Swisher walk as a free agent this winter and Ichiro could theoretically step right into right field, but it would be a massive downgrade offensively and not a big enough of an upgrade defensively to compensate. My guess is the team will scour the trade market before circling back to Ichiro later in the offseason if nothing better pops up.

The five biggest RISPFAILs of the 2012 season

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(Rob Carr/Getty)

We’ve already looked at the five biggest hits as well as the five biggest outs of the season, so now let’s look at the five biggest blown scoring opportunities of the Yankees’ 2012 campaign. We’re going to again use WPA just because it’s simple enough, but RISPFAIL is a strange phenomenon. It usually applies to the team (or the lineup, anyway) as a whole rather than one specific player, but the definition is ambiguous. It’s like “clutch,” we only use it when we want to.

New York’s biggest single-game RISPFAIL this year (nine-inning games only) came against the Tigers on April 29th, when they left 15 (!) men on-base. They went 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and guess what? They still won the game because Curtis Granderson and Andruw Jones hit solo homers, Max Scherzer walked in a run, Alex Rodriguez had a run-scoring ground out, and Robinson Cano had a sacrifice fly. The Yankees left at least ten men on-base 24 times this year and they went 14-10 in those games. When you lead the league in OBP like the Bombers did this year, you’re going to leave a ton of men on-base. It’s inevitable.

Anyway, let’s look at individual instances of RISPFAIL this year, or more accurately the plate appearances with the most negative WPA. These are the at-bats from the offense that most hurt New York’s chances of winning the game. I suppose the best way to identify the biggest blown scoring opportunities would be to compared expected runs (based on the game situation) to the actual runs (zero), but that would be quite labor-intensive. I think we all know that the Yankees turned several bases loaded, no outs situations into zero runs this year. It happens to every team.

May 19th: Curtis Granderson vs. Jose Arredondo (WPA graph & box score) (video)
The Yankees and Reds went back and forth all afternoon long, with Cincinnati taking a 2-0 lead before New York took a 3-2 before Cincinnati took a 6-3 lead. Aroldis Chapman, still just Sean Marshall’s setup man on the time, blew the Yankees away in the eighth inning before Marshall came in for the save in the ninth. Raul Ibanez greeted him with a leadoff double — one of his two extra-base hits against lefties during the regular season — and Nick Swisher following a run-scoring single. Marshall struck out Russell Martin but allowed a single to Andruw Jones, putting men on the corners. Jayson Nix plated Swisher with a single, and a Derek Jeter ground out forced Nix out at second after Arredondo took over on the mound.. There were runners on the corners with two outs and the tying run was at third, but Curtis Granderson grounded out to first to end the game after working the count full. The Yankees were 90-feet away from completing the three-run comeback. WPA: -0.24

July 30th: Russell Martin vs. Jim Johnson (WPA graph & box score) (video)
The Yankees had lost two in a row and seven of their last ten games, so they were reeling when Baltimore came to town for three games in late-July. Miguel Gonzalez stymied the home team for six innings before letting things get out of hand in the seventh, but the Orioles were still able to hand their closer a one-run lead in the ninth. Swisher opened the inning with a leadoff ground rule double off Johnson and was immediately lifted for a pinch-runner (Ramiro Pena). Ibanez struck out for the first out, Eric Chavez drew a walk to put men on first and second, then Ichiro Suzuki grounded out to third (force out made at second). He stole second to put the go-ahead run in scoring position. Martin worked the count even at 2-2, but Johnson got him with a down-and-in sinker for the swing and miss to end the game. Again, 90-feet from completing the comeback. WPA: -0.24

June 20th: Alex Rodriguez vs. Chad Durbin (WPA graph & box score)
Unlike the other four at-bats in this post, this one didn’t happen in the ninth inning. The Braves were visiting Yankee Stadium and jumped out to a 6-4 lead thanks to four homers off Phil Hughes. Tommy Hanson gave up four of his own, so the ball was really flying that day. Durbin took over with a two-run lead in the seventh, and he immediately walked Martin to put the pressure on. Nix flew out to center for the first out but Jeter drew another walk to put the tying run on-base. Granderson made it a one-run game with a single to right, putting men on the corners with one out for A-Rod. Durbin jumped ahead in the count 0-1, but Rodriguez chopped the second pitch of the at-bat to short for a routine inning-ending 6-4-3 double play. Atlanta blew things open late so the final score was lopsided, but that was a huge blown opportunity that could have changed the game. MLB.com doesn’t have video of the double play, but there’s a .gif. WPA: -0.25

(Ed Zurga/Getty)

May 3rd: Mark Teixeira vs. Jonathan Broxton (WPA graph & box score) (video)
This was an especially rough day for the Yankees, who lost Mariano Rivera to what would prove to be a season-ending knee injury a few hours before first pitch. The game still had to be played though, and they were playing catch-up with the Royals all night. Jonathan Broxton inherited a one-run lead in the ninth and surrendered a leadoff single to Jeter in an 0-2 count. Granderson followed with a six-pitch walk and the comeback was on … at least temporarily. Teixeira hit a sharp ground ball up the middle that Chris Getz nabbed with a diving stop before flipping over to second to start the 4-6-3 double play. It was a really great turn on the part of Kansas City, no doubt about that. A-Rod grounded out to third one batter later to end the game, another great defensive play on the Royals’ part. Here’s video. This wasn’t so much RISPFAIL as it was flat out bad luck, but it still stung. Considering Rivera’s injury, it stung even more than usual. WPA: -0.31

September 8th: Teixeira vs. Jerry Meals (WPA graph & box score) (video)
Here’s another one that doesn’t really feel like RISPFAIL, it feels more like the game was ripped out of New York’s hands by the first base ump. The Yankees and Orioles played a tight late-season game with playoff implications, and the O’s carried a two-run lead into the ninth inning. Ichiro, Chavez, and Jeter led off the inning with back-to-back-to-back singles to load the bases with no outs, putting the Yankees in prime scoring position. Swisher grounded out weakly to third base, allowing a run to score but also cutting down the man on second. With men on the corners and one out, Teixeira fought Johnson for six pitches before hitting a weak ground ball to second. Robert Andino and J.J. Hardy made the turn at second but Tex slid and beat the return throw to first, avoiding the double play and allowing the tying run to score from third … except he didn’t. At least not according to Meals, who ruled him out at first. Replays showed that the call was incorrect and frankly it wasn’t all that close either, but it stood and the Yankees lost the game. Thankfully it didn’t change anything in the final standings, though it did make life a little more stressful down the stretch. Pretty ridiculous that the team’s biggest RISPFAIL of the season was nothing more than MealsFAIL. Maybe the Yankees go on to lose in extra innings anyway, but that game felt like it was stolen. WPA: -0.38

The second life of Gary Sheffield

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Here’s some excellent late-night reading for you night owls. Jack Dickey profiled former Yankee Gary Sheffield for Sports on Earth, looking at his life after retiring from baseball as a player. Sheff is now a player agent with a myriad of investments and businesses around the Tampa area, where he lives. He talked about what he feels was his underappreciated playing career — “In my mind, I know I won five MVPs. I was a better player most times than most of the MVPs were.” — his children, his business plans, all sorts of stuff. It’s a fantastic read and it gets RAB’s highest level of recommendation, so make sure you check it out.

Open Thread: World Series Game One

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Barry’s got this. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Giants and Tigers open the 108th World Series tonight with Game One in San Francisco. Both teams were the three-seed in their respective leagues — meaning they had arguably the most favorable schedule — but arrived at the Fall Classic in very different ways. Detroit beat the Athletics in five games in the ALDS before walloping the Yankees in the ALCS sweep while the Giants came back from a 2-0 deficit against the Reds in the NLDS before coming back from a 3-1 deficit against the Cardinals in the NLCS.

If there is such a thing as momentum, San Fran has it … or they don’t. The Tigers have had six days off while the Giants played just a day ago, but Justin Verlander will be on the mound for Detroit. They say momentum is only as good as your next day’s starting pitcher, and the Giants will be running Barry Zito out there. Whenever the Yankees were not in the World Series, I’ve always found myself rooting against the AL team and I’m not quite sure why. That’s just the way it’s been for me and I don’t expect that to change this year.

Anyway, here is your open thread for the evening. Game One starts at 8pm ET and can be seen on FOX, so talk about that or any other non-politics topic here throughout the night. Enjoy.