River Avenue Blues

Hughes leads Yankees to win over Red Sox

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Source: FanGraphs

I was unable to watch Thursday night’s game against the Red Sox, so I won’t be able to go into too much detail about what happened. The important thing is that the Yankees won — their first set of consecutive wins since beating the Rangers in three straight back in mid-August — and remain tied atop the AL East with the Orioles. The Rays are four back heading into this weekend three-game set in the Bronx.

Phil Hughes stepped up for the second straight start, though unlike last weekend in Baltimore, he did not surrender the #obligatoryhomer. Seven strikeouts in 7.1 shutout innings, including just five hits (four singles) and a walk. The Red Sox swung and missed 16 times at his 95 pitches, including eleven times at his 51 fastballs. Getting that many whiffs on the heat is damn impressive. By Game Score (74), this was Phil’s second best start of the season behind the complete game in Detroit. The team shutout was New York’s first in Fenway Park since July 2008.

As for the offense, well they put on another RISPFAIL clinic. One-for-nine on the night, with the one being a Derek Jeter bloop single to shallow center in the seventh. Andruw Jones plated the other run with a sacrifice fly in the fourth, an inning in which the Yankees had the bases loaded with no outs and only mustered the one run. Apparently Curtis Granderson lined into an inning-ending double play that was just bad luck. Alex Rodriguez and Eduardo Nunez had two hits apiece. The Yankees really should find a way to work Nunez into the lineup a little more often, especially against lefties. Steve Pearce ain’t gettin’ the job done.

I was a little surprised to see that David Robertson pitched again, even if it was only one batter and three pitches. He worked what amounted to two innings on Tuesday and threw again on Wednesday, yet there he was for the third straight day. Joe Girardi has had a real quick hook of late — only once in the last eight games has the starter been allowed to throw 100 pitches, and that was (who else?) CC Sabathia — and his core relievers are being worked hard down the stretch. Just look at the Bullpen Workload page, that’s an awful lot of work for those guys.

Anyway, MLB.com has the box score and video highlights while ESPN has the updated standings. The Yankees are coming home after going 5-5 on the ten-game road trip, and they have a chance to absolutely bury Tampa this weekend while the Orioles are out on the West Coast. This is as good a time as any to start stringing some wins together, especially with Sabathia on the bump Friday night. He’ll be opposed by David Price. Check out RAB Tickets for some last minute deals if you want to catch the primo pitching matchup.

Game 143: Win or and go home

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(AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

The Yankees have won four of nine games on this ten-game road trip through the AL East, so they have a chance to pull even tonight before heading home for a big weekend series with the Rays. Derek Jeter (ankle) is hobbled and the bullpen is worn out, so it would be nice if the offense scored a ton of runs early and Phil Hughes pitched deep into the night. Here’s the lineup…

DH Derek Jeter
RF Nick Swisher
3B Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
C  Russell Martin
LF Andruw Jones
CF Curtis Granderson
1B Steve Pearce
SS Eduardo Nunez

RHP Phil Hughes

The Orioles beat the Rays in a marathon this afternoon, so the Yankees have to win tonight to avoid falling out of first place for the first time in half-a-season. Tonight’s game is scheduled to start at 7:10pm ET and can be seen on YES locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy.

Minor League Update
Sorry folks, but no Down on the Farm post tonight simply because no one is playing. Double-A Trenton is off for travel and will resume their best-of-five Championship Series with Akron tomorrow night. The Aeros lead that series two games to none. All of the other affiliates have either been eliminated from the postseason or did not quality.

Pettitte will come off DL and start on Tuesday

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Andy Pettitte will be activated off the DL and start next Tuesday against the Blue Jays, manager Joe Girardi announced this afternoon. He’ll be taking David Phelps’ spot in the rotation. Pettitte declared himself “ready” following his latest simulated game yesterday, though he’s going to be held to a 75-pitch count in his first start back. The Yankees will have to make a 40-man roster move to activate Andy off the 60-day DL, and I suppose it could be Derek Lowe on the chopping block. Don’t quote me on that though.

Swisher, Granderson, and signs of life

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(Jared Wickerham/Getty)

The Yankees won just four games during the recent ten-game stretch against the Orioles and Rays due in part to an offensive attack that scored more than four runs just four times in the ten games. Derek Jeter, Russell Martin, and Alex Rodriguez did all they could to carry the club with their bats, but the usually productive Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson dragged the lineup down. The duo combined to go 8-for-65 (.123) with two walks and two hit-by-pitches (.169 OBP) during the ten games, including an ugly 0-for-28 stretch for Swisher.

The last few games have gone quite differently for those two, however. Granderson went 3-for-3 with a double and a homer off the bench against the Orioles on Sunday, two days after going 2-for-4 with a pair of singles. He did most of the offensive damage in last night’s win with two homers against the Red Sox, including another ball to the warning track that was hit just as hard as the two homers but a little too far toward center field. Granderson has three multi-hit games in the team’s last six contests (including three homers) despite not starting two of them.

“Everything still feels the same as it has before,” said Curtis after last night’s win. “It’s just a matter of …  I wasn’t able to get the consistent contact the way I wanted to. I don’t necessarily feel like I’m locked in by any means now. I didn’t feel like I wasn’t locked in before. Just, something wasn’t executing the way I wanted it to.”

As for Swisher, he’s been able to shake off that 0-for-28 skid to pick up five hits in the first two games against the Red Sox, including three doubles off the Green Monster. He also had a homer robbed in Baltimore over the weekend if you remember, so he’s starting to hit the ball with more authority than he did during the ten-game stretch. Then again, it would be tough for anyone to hit the ball with less authority than Nick did last week.

With Mark Teixeira out for at least another week and Derek Jeter now hobbled by a left ankle injury, the Yankees absolutely need Granderson and Swisher to pick up the offensive slack. Neither guy is hitting as well as he did a year ago (by wRC+) and it’s too late in the season to really change that, but these next three weeks are incredibly important to the club’s postseason chances. No one is expecting Granderson to hit two homers or Swisher to hit two doubles every night, but they can’t go through another ten-game slump like they did against the Orioles and Rays. These last two or three games have been very encouraging compared to where they were a week ago.

The Yankees could use some relief

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Three David Phelps photos in one day? Madness. (Jared Wickerham/Getty)

After yet another close game (though thankfully, last night’s was of the winning variety), the collective blood pressure of the Yankee fanbase is once again a little higher than optimal.  While the Yankees were able to jump ahead of the Red Sox in the early going, the inability to accomplish the mythical shutdown inning allowed the Red Sox to stay within striking distance for the majority of the game.  This has been a problem for much of the recent stretch of subpar play.

While David Robertson and Rafael Soriano have individually had very strong seasons, the Yankee bullpen, and these two stalwarts in particular, have shown mortality at particularly inconvenient times.  Robertson’s fastball velocity is down slightly from last season, and his reduction in the use of his curveball in favor of the cutter is a little puzzling.  Several recent Yankee losses can directly be tied to blowups by one or both of the Yankees’ top relievers.  While Joba Chamberlain has impressed in his recent outings, he is probably still not at the point of being relied upon to be a consistent shutdown presence in the 7th inning.  The Clay Rapada/Cody Eppley/Boone Logan trio have performed adequately, though none of them (possibly excepting Logan) really are useful against opposite-handed batters.

As the Yankees battle through the last few weeks of the season and hopefully into October, it is evident that they could use another bullpen arm with the ability to retire hitters from both sides of the plate.  Presumably, a trade is incredibly unlikely at this juncture, so whatever help the Yankees are going to find will have to come from within.  With several players on track to return from injury, the Yankees will have a few options as they shuffle their rotation to accommodate the returnees.  Here are some of the ways they can proceed, and variables to consider.

Ivan Nova

Nova should be back from injury relatively soon, but his uneven 2012 season raises questions about how he can be most effectively deployed.  He’s currently in line to replace Freddy Garcia in the rotation, but given his propensity to surrender extra-base hits, there’s no guarantee that he will be a significant upgrade.  While Freddy’s repertoire doesn’t really translate well to a short relief role (though he could be an effective long man), Nova could be an effective option for shorter stints, allowing him to focus on his fastball and slider and not worry about his other pitches.

David Phelps

Andy Pettitte is also on his way back, though his timeline for returning to the rotation is unclear at the moment.  The Yankees are currently planning to let Pettitte build his innings back up on the Major League roster, which will likely entail him making piggyback starts with one of Nova, Garcia, or Phelps. If Nova and Pettitte both make it back into the rotation, Phelps likely gets bumped back into a relief role.  Phelps has been very impressive when used as a reliever this season (albeit in a small sample), so he could be an intriguing option to add more depth to the Yankee bullpen.

Cory Wade

Yes, Wade has been incredibly disappointing in the majors this year, but he has handled himself fairly well since being demoted to AAA (2.27 ERA).  That said, his strikeout rate is down compared to 2011 and his walk rate is elevated, and both trends continued when he was sent down to the Scranton traveling road show.  Even though Wade is not pitching as well as he did last season (or early this year), it could be worth giving him some innings to see if he can get his confidence and stuff back.

Mark Montgomery (obligatory)

I know the Yankees have said that they will not call up Montgomery this season, but I think it is an option worth considering.  He has continued to dominate his minor league opposition, and I’m not sure if there is a serious developmental case to be made for keeping him in the minors much longer.  AA hitters simply have no answer for his slider, and he is striking them out in droves.  While there is some obvious risk inherent in calling up a minor leaguer to contribute to a playoff chase (some may fear that getting hit around could ruin him forever, a la Mark Melancon), Montgomery has the talent and upside to be a shutdown guy right away.  I trust that the Yankees know better than me regarding his big league readiness, but the possibility that Montgomery could be a shot in the arm to the Yankee bullpen (a la rookie Joba Chamberlain or Francisco Rodriguez back in the day) is hard to ignore.  Considering the Yankees’ recent bullpen struggles, it seems worthwhile to reconsider the calculus of whether keeping Montgomery down is really the best option.

While a Montgomery callup doesn’t seem forthcoming (though I will continue to dream), returning Phelps to the bullpen could give the Yankees the reliable middle-inning arm that they have been missing since Cory Wade began to struggle.  While Montgomery has the highest upside, Phelps is the safest bet.  Phelps has excelled in the role when called upon this season, and since the Yankees may not want to overwork Chamberlain and Robertson, it makes sense to have another reliable middle relief arm who can pitch to both righties and lefties.  It would be hard to expect much out of Nova or Wade if they were given a relief role, and they would definitely have to impress in their few opportunities to earn their spot.

Of all the problems facing the Yankees this season, the bullpen is probably the least of them.  That said, it has contributed directly to several losses, and the Yankees do have several decent options available that could improve the situation.  I assume when Pettitte and Nova are back, we will start to see some pieces in motion, as the Yankees look to fortify the middle innings.

David Phelps and first pitch strikes

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(Jared Wickerham/Getty)

You could make a pretty strong argument that last night was the best start of David Phelps’ young career, but I think we can all agree that it was his biggest start as a big leaguer. The Yankees need to win as many games as possible from here on out, and the 25-year-old right-hander shook off two miserable outings against the Orioles to give the team 5.2 innings of one-run ball in Fenway Park. That’s not easy to do, and all it took was getting ahead in the count.

“The last two starts prior to this one I was behind in a lot of counts and I wasn’t pounding the strike zone early,” said Phelps after the game. “I told myself I wanted to come out and if they were going to swing first pitch, I was going to make them hit it. I just went out there and tried to get ahead in the count. I can attack a lot more when it’s 0-1 vs. 1-0.”

Phelps threw first pitch strikes to 14 of the 21 batters he faced (66.7%), far better than the 53.7% first pitch strikes (22-of-41) he threw against the Orioles these last two times out. His season average is 62.8% first pitch strikes, a bit better than the 59.9% league average. They say strike one is the best pitch in baseball, but here’s the crazy part: batters have actually hit Phelps harder (relative to the league average) after he’s jumped ahead to a 0-1 count than when he falls behind 1-0. That’s the exact opposite of what you’d expect, but look…

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS HBP BAbip sOPS+
After 1-0 122 20 0 0 5 21 16 0.76 .204 .361 .357 .718 3 .195 76
After 0-1 177 41 8 0 7 8 63 7.88 .247 .282 .422 .704 1 .347 128
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/13/2012.

Now there are clearly sample size issues here, which is inevitable when a guy has only thrown 84.1 innings and faced 349 batters on the season (the missing 50 batters put the ball in play on the first pitch). Opponents have hit 28% better than the league average after falling behind 0-1 to Phelps compared to 24% worse when getting ahead 1-0. Although Phelps deserves some credit for being able to battle back to retire hitters following a first pitch ball (he’s also gotten some BABIP love in those spots as well), the big problem is that he’s giving up way too many extra-base hits after getting ahead. He’ll often follow up that first pitch strike with a second and third pitch ball, putting the hitter back in control.

The season numbers don’t bear it right now, but Phelps is the exactly the kind of guy who needs to throw a lot of first pitch strikes to be successful. He doesn’t have blow-you-away type stuff, but he does throw four pitches and jumping ahead in the count opens a lot of doors for him. He didn’t get ahead in the count enough in his last two starts against the Orioles and he paid dearly for it, allowing eight runs in 8.2 innings in two important games. David got back to throwing strike one last night and both he and the club reaped the rewards.

Mapping out the rotation for the rest of the year

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(Jared Wickerham/Getty)

The Yankees continued to get good news about Andy Pettitte’s fractured left leg yesterday, as the left-hander threw a four-inning simulated game and declared himself ready to return to the rotation, albeit on a limited pitch count for the time being. The team wouldn’t commit to a plan going forward, but Joe Girardi gave some pretty strong indications that Pettitte will replace David Phelps when his turn comes around against next Tuesday. “It might be something that we do, I can’t tell you right now,” said the skipper, presumably with his fingers crossed behind his back.

Getting Pettitte back wasn’t the only good news of the day, as it was announced that Ivan Nova will take Freddy Garcia’s spot in the rotation starting Saturday. Garcia’s really struggled in his last four outings, failing to complete five innings in three of them, so the switch isn’t a surprise. Nova wasn’t pitching all that great before he got hurt, but I think we can all agree that the chances of him pitching well over the next three weeks are greater than Freddy’s. The Yankees need all the help they can get right now, so any move that brings even a marginal upgrade is worth making.

Since the rotation just got a bit of an overhaul and there are only 20 games left to play, let’s take a quick look at how the pitching lines up through the end of the season…

  • Game 143 @ Red Sox: Phil Hughes
  • Games 144-146 vs. Rays: CC Sabathia, Nova, Hiroki Kuroda
  • OFF-DAY
  • Games 147-149 vs. Blue Jays: Pettitte, Hughes, Sabathia
  • Games 150-152 vs. Athletics: Nova, Kuroda, Pettitte
  • Games 153-155 @ Twins: Hughes, Sabathia, Nova
  • Games 156-159 @ Blue Jays: Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, Sabathia
  • Games 160-162 vs. Red Sox: Nova, Kuroda, Pettitte

The big series in there — they’re all big at this point, but I mean the really big one — is this weekend’s series against the Rays at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have both Sabathia and Kuroda lined up to pitch in that one, and if things go well they could really bury Tampa in the race for the AL East crown. Joe Maddon’s club is three back right now and could be four back depending on how things go tonight.

Phelps made it very difficult for the Yankees to take him out of the rotation with his performance last night — 5.2 innings of one-run ball at Fenway Park — but not impossible. Even a limited Pettitte is still an upgrade, plus shifting Phelps to the bullpen figures to help the still sketchy middle relief situation. I figure he’ll piggyback with Andy at first, but will soon enough join the improving Joba Chamberlain to shore up the middle innings that have been such a problem since about June.

If you’re an optimist and want to look ahead to the postseason, the Yankees would be set up well with Sabathia, Kuroda, and Pettitte lined up for Games One, Two, and Three of the ALDS, respectively. Ivan Nova is sandwiched between Sabathia and Kuroda right now, but that would surely change in October. If the Yankees are stuck playing a tiebreaker or a wildcard play-in game, the ball would go to Hughes. Well, either him or Sabathia on short rest, but let’s let the Bombers actually clinch something before we worry about the that. The important thing is that both Nova and Pettitte are set to rejoin the rotation the next turn through, and that should be a big help down the stretch.

Update: As Andy In Sunny Daytona points out, the Yankees can use that one off-day to flip Sabathia and Hughes in the rotation. Phil can probably use an extra day of rest at this point of the season while Sabathia already had his extra rest during his two DL stints. Switching the two would keep CC in line to start Game One of the ALDS if they manage to win the division while also lining him up perfectly for a potential tie-breaker/wildcard play-in game. The Yankees should really consider making the switch.