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Why the Yankees won’t sign C.J. Wilson

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The Yankees might be in the market for pitching, and C.J. Wilson might be the best starting pitcher on the free agent market, but that doesn’t mean the two are a natural fit. Earlier today Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports relayed some information from major league execs. The general feeling seems to be that Wilson will get “at least five years” with an option, though one executive speculated that he’ll end up with a six-year deal. “It just takes one club,” the exec said. While that one team might have been the Yankees in years past, the possibility seems much less likely this off-season.

In the past the Yankees have heavily pursued starting pitching when they had a need. In 2008 they laid out a record-breaking contract for CC Sabathia before another team made an offer, and then outbid the Braves for A.J. Burnett. Last off-season they reluctantly added a seventh-year option to their offer for Cliff Lee. The Yankees again seek that elusive No. 2 to complement CC Sabathia atop the rotation, but the pursuit feels different this time. It doesn’t seem as though the Yankees will outbid the league for the top free agent starter, as they have in years past.

Earlier this month Mike wrote up the pros and cons of Wilson. While every free agent pitcher has a few things going against him, Wilson’s list of cons seems a bit deep for a pitcher about to sign a five- or six-year contract. The Yankees might go to four years, and maybe add a fifth option. But with a few alternatives on the free agent market (Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle), a possibility on the international market (Yu Darvish), and even more possibilities on the trade market, the Yankees will likely refrain from an all-out pursuit of Wilson. If another team comes in with an over-the-top offer, and Morosi’s sources indicate that such an offer is on the horizon, the Yankees will likely just let him walk and move on to the next target.

Adding C.J. Wilson to the 2012 rotation would surely shore up the pitching staff. Despite the factors working against him he’s still managed to have the 15th best ERA and the 22nd best FIP, while pitching the 20th most innings, in the last two years. While those numbers are certainly good, they’re not top-10 quality. The Yankees will likely balk at paying such a price for a top-20 arm. They have options elsewhere, and some up-and-coming pitchers in the minor league system, who could fit into the 2012 rotation. Wilson would be nice, but he’s just not worth the premium contract that he’s reportedly going to get.

Report: Yankees in touch with Oswalt, Wilson, and others

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Via Marc Carig, Brian Cashman has already had preliminary talks with the agent for Roy Oswalt and C.J. Wilson. “I’m in the process of talking with everybody,” said Cash, who indicated yesterday that he would get in touch with Wilson’s people at some point. “That’s the way the routine works.” The Yankees are reportedly concerned about the two degenerative discs in Oswalt’s back, but there’s no harm in making a phone call. Oswalt and Wilson share the same agent, Bob Garber.

In other news, Cashman confirmed that he’s already talked to Freddy Garcia’s agent about a possible return, and he plans to do the same with Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones, and Bartolo Colon. Chavez would supposedly welcome a return to New York if he doesn’t retire.

Cashman: We’ll talk to C.J. Wilson

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Via Dan Martin, the Yankees will talk to C.J. Wilson at some point this offseason according to Brian Cashman. “We haven’t talked to him yet, but we will,” said the GM. “They have won a lot and he’s been a big part of that, so we’ll certainly talk to him.”

This shouldn’t be a surprise at all. The Yankees need pitching and Wilson is the best starter on the market, so they’d better at least put in a phone call to see what’s up. There’s no harm is asking, it’s just due diligence more than anything. I took a detailed looked at Wilson earlier this week, listing both the good and the bad.

Scouting The Free Agent Market: C.J. Wilson

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When the Yankees needed pitching last offseason, they went all out and offered Cliff Lee a six-year contract (with a player option!) worth at least $132M. They still need pitching this offseason, but there’s no one on the open market worthy of that kind of commitment. With CC Sabathia re-signed to an extension, the best available free agent pitcher is C.J. Wilson, a left-hander that would help combat Yankee Stadium’s cozy right field porch.

Joel Sherman has reported a number of times that the Yankees are not enamored with Wilson, and in fact one club official called the Rangers’ nominal ace a number four starter on a championship-caliber team. Despite that, you know we’re going to hear the two parties connected at some point this winter, it’s just the nature of the beast. On the first day of open free agency, let’s break down Wilson’s qualifications…

The Pros

  • Wilson’s first season in the rotation was solid, but he took major steps forward in 2011. His strikeout rate improved from 7.50 K/9 to 8.30 K/9, his swing-and-miss rate from 6.7% to 8.3%, and his walk rate from 4.10 BB/9 to 2.98 BB/9. That helped drop his xFIP from 4.06 to 3.41.
  • A ground ball pitcher, Wilson has gotten batters to beat the ball into the ground either 49.2% or 49.3% of the time in five of the last six years. The one exception came in 2009, when his ground ball rate was 55.4%. Bonus points for cosistency, says Joe Morgan. All the grounders help Wilson keep the ball in the park; he’s allowed just 0.55 HR/9 with a measly 6.7% HR/FB ratio over the last two seasons, and that’s while pitching in a big-time hitters’ park.
  • After throwing 228.1 IP in 2010 (regular season and playoffs), Wilson beefed that up to 251.1 IP in 2011. He responded well to the workload increase based on his fastball velocity, which jumped from 88-91 last year to 92-94 this year. Wilson throws three fastballs (two-seamer, four-seamer, cutter), a low-80’s slider, a low-80’s changeup, and a mid-70’s curve. They are six legit pitches, he’s used each more than 10% of the time as a starter.
  • Wilson flat out annihilates lefties, even as a starter. Since the start of last season, he’s held same-side hitters to a measly .202/.277/.262 batting line with 97 strikeouts and 29 walks in 369 plate appearances. He’s not too shabby against righties either, holding them to a .231/.314/.350 line since the start of last year. For what it’s worth, he’s also got great career numbers against the Red Sox and Rays.
  • Because Wilson has was a position player in college and a reliever for the vast majority of his first five years in the big leagues, his arm doesn’t have as many miles on it compared to most other 30-year-old starters (he’ll turn 31 in about two weeks).

The Cons

  • Although he’s been healthy these last two years, the early part of Wilson’s career was riddling with injury. He had Tommy John surgery back in 2003, missed the start of 2006 with a sore shoulder, missed basically all of Spring Training in 2008 with a sore elbow, missed the last two months of 2008 due to elbow surgery (bone spurs), and then dealt with blisters in 2009. Those are all arm problems and none of them are fluky, except maybe the blisters.
  • Walks have been and probably will continue to be an issue. This year was the first time he ever posted a sub-3.60 BB/9 in a full Major League season, and he’s just one year removed from a league-leading 93 walks. His rates of 16.5 pitches per inning and 4.0 pitches per batter faced are among the ten highest in baseball over the last two seasons (min. 300 IP), so not exactly Mr. Efficient.
  • There’s no denying that Wilson has been a very effective starter these last two seasons, but he just doesn’t have a track record in that role. Whatever team signs him would be betting that he can repeat that kind of production over that many innings for the next half-decade. That’s not to say he can’t do it, but the question still has to be asked.
  • Wilson is a Type-A free agent and the Rangers will assuredly offer him arbitration, so whatever team signs him will forfeit their first round pick to Texas.

Many of you will point to Wilson’s second straight awful postseason showing as a negative, but I just can’t bring myself to put much stock into October numbers. It’s been 52.1 playoff innings and he’s got a 4.82 ERA with a 5.70 FIP. Andy Pettitte had a 5.68 ERA with a 5.84 FIP in his first 50.1 playoff innings. See what I mean? The poor postseason showing will likely affect Wilson’s price though, but I doubt it’ll be much. I still expect him to get something close to the A.J. Burnett and John Lackey contract, meaning five years and $82.5M.

Fittingly, I do find myself thinking about Wilson the same way I thought about John Lackey two years ago, at least in one sense. The Rangers can afford to keep him and they have a need for him, but we haven’t heard anything about them doing all they can to retain him. That makes me wonder what they know that other teams don’t. Obviously we haven’t seen how the Wilson sweepstakes will play out, but it’s still something I’ll be keeping an eye on. If Texas doesn’t make a major effort to retain him, I’d consider it a red flag.

On the surface, Wilson has everything the Yankees could possibly want in a starter. He’s left-handed, gets a ton of ground balls, misses bats, should be good for 200+ innings year-in and year-out … but I just can’t bring myself to it. The lack of a track record scares me, as does the pre-2011 control problems. All those arm injuries earlier in his career are a concern as well. As I said earlier, we’ve heard that the Yankees view Wilson as more of a mid-rotation guy, and that’s pretty much how I value him. Solid guy to have in the rotation, but not someone I’d bend over backwards to sign like Lee last winter.

Mailbag: Montero, Miller, Outfield, Yu, Hughes

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I swear, one of these weeks I’m going to do a Jesus Montero-free mailbag. Maybe next week, just to see how it goes. Hopefully you folks don’t revolt or something. Anyway, we’ve got two Montero-related and three non-Montero-related questions this week. The Submit A Tip box in the sidebar is the easiest (and preferred) way of sending questions in. Thanks.

(AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)

Chris asks: I wrote to you guys earlier about Montero’s conditioning assignment. What is the pro of keeping him as a catcher? Just trade value? Look at all the catchers that break down because of the position. Mauer being a great example. I’d rather keep that bat in an area where he can remain healthy for a LONG time.

That’s the exact reason why the Nationals moved Bryce Harper to right field the instant they signed him two summers ago, and I can see that side of the argument. The pros of keeping Montero at catcher, not that he’s much to write home about back there, is that he’d simply be more valuable at that position, both to the Yankees or in a potential trade. Catchers that can rake are rare and therefore extremely valuable. The downside if obvious, he and his bat would need regular days off, the nagging injuries, etc.

I agree with moving him to a position that will allow him to play every day and theoretically remain productive, but what position is that? Okay, DH is obvious, but what else is there? Mark Teixeira still has five years left on his contract, so first base isn’t much of an option even though it’s the most logical spot. The outfield isn’t going to happen, at least not anytime soon. That’s not the easiest transition to make. Split duty at DH and behind the plate, maybe 100 games at DH and 40 behind the dish, seems like the most logical plan for Montero next year, then reevaluate after the season.

Evan asks: Assuming, and I know this is a huge assumption, that Albert Pujols signs anywhere besides with the Cardinals, do you think a Shelby Miller for Jesus Montero swap makes sense?

I don’t, actually. If the Cardinals lose Pujols, they’ll just stick Lance Berkman at first and play Allen Craig in right, or use Craig with a platoon partner, something like that. Obviously Montero wouldn’t catch for them with Yadier Molina around. Miller is arguably the best right-handed pitching prospect in the game, but he’s thrown just 86.2 IP above A-ball. That’s not enough of a sure thing to get back in a Montero trade in my book. I’d prefer a player that’s unquestionably ready to step in and play in the big leagues right now, kinda like Jesus.

Nick asks: Who are the prospects that can replace Nick Swisher after 2012?

There aren’t any really, and that’s part of the reason why the Yankees brought in guys like Justin Maxwell and Jordan Parraz last offseason. Their outfield depth at the upper levels of the minors is pretty thin. Melky Mesa has a long way to go before he can be considered a viable big league option, and both Abe Almonte and Mason Williams are years away from being options. Slade Heathcott needs to stay healthy for a full year before we can think him getting to Double-A, nevermind the bigs. If the Yankees let Swisher walk after 2012, they’d have to fill the position from outside the organization. Either that or take a big hit in production.

(Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)

Kevin asks: Will Yu Darvish generate a posting fee as high as Dice-K? Will a shallow free agent market balance out the recent dismal big Japanese pitcher free agent history i.e workload, adapting to a new culture? Who would you choose considering price between Darvish and Wilson? Is it possible to grab both and fill out the rotation with C.C., Wilson, Darvish, Nova and Hughes? Thanks.

I don’t think anyone knows what kind of posting fee Darvish will require, it’s all guesswork. It’s worth noting that although the Red Sox won the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka with that $51.1M bid, the second highest bid was $39-40M by the Mets. Boston really blew everyone out of the water for Dice-K. Darvish is supposedly better than Dice-K, but baseball salaries have come down a bit in recent years, and I do think Matsuzaka will scare some teams into lowering their bid. It only takes one team to go overboard though, and I’m willing to bet it takes at least $40M or so land him.

As for Darvish vs. C.J. Wilson, I’d rather go with Darvish. Wilson is the safer bet, sure, but Darvish offers more upside (and more risk) and is considerably younger. There’s also the benefit of keeping the draft pick and saving money because the posting fee is not counted towards the luxury tax. Wilson is the safe move and is probably the better bet in 2012 and 2013, but over the next five or six years, Darvish is the guy I want. And no, I don’t think the Yankees, or any team for that matter, will land both guys this winter.

Anthony asks: I was wondering if you can see the Yankees trading Phil Hughes this offseason. He’s been with the team for a while now (since ’07, no?) and we’ve only seen him perform to his expectations just twice: as a lights out reliever in ’09 and as a dominant starter in the first half of the ’10 season. What would someone like Hughes get the Yankees in a trade?

Hughes’ value is at an all-time low right now, so I can’t imagine they’d get much in return. He’s not that young anymore, nor is he cheap and under team control for another half-decade. He’ll make something like $3-4M in 2012, his second time through arbitration, then become a free agent after the 2013 season. I could definitely see the Yankees trading him, but I doubt they’d get anything special in return. Maybe another kid like Hughes, struggling to take the next step at the big league level. The Yankees aren’t exactly in a position to give away potential starters though, so I’m not sure I’d be okay with dealing him for another reclamation project just because.

Mailbag: Posada, Nunez, Burnett, Martin, Wilson

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Another Friday, another mailbag. This week our focus is on players currently with the team that may or may not be next season, plus some miscellaneous stuff about C.J. Wilson and prospects. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar if you want to send in some questions.

(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Ryan asks: Do you guys think that Posada makes it onto the playoff roster?

I do think he’ll make it, assuming the Yankees get to the postseason, of course. We don’t want to jinx anything. Jorge Posada still has some value as a veteran pinch-hitter against right-handed pitchers, plus it won’t be a real chore to carry him on the roster since they figure to drop down to an eleven man pitching staff. I try not too put too much stock into intangibles, but we know Posada won’t be overwhelmed in a big spot in October, which is comforting (if nothing else).

Chris asks: If Posada does not retire at the end of the season do you see him trying to get a catching job in the NL or as a DH in the AL? I think he has a chip on his shoulder and would be looking to prove the Yankees (and Girardi) wrong.

I think he’s going to retire, but if he doesn’t, I imagine he’ll go to an AL club to DH. Maybe he’s open to being a part-time first baseman and primary pinch-hitter for an NL club, but I think that’s a big if. I see two likely destinations if he sticks around after 2011: the Rays and Mets. Both are close to home for him and could use someone for those roles.

Tucker asks: What trade value does Eduardo Nunez hold? Ken Rosenthal recently wrote that he has a lot because he’s hitting well and can “play” premium positions. What’s your take?

You all know that I’m not Nunez’s biggest fan, but there’s no denying the dude has some serious trade value. He’s shown that he can hit in the limited at-bats he’s gotten this year, and his impressive contact rate is in line with his minor league track record and scouting report. His defense has improved as the season has gone on (likely because he’s getting more reps), and he’s a legitimate shortstop. That last part alone is hard to find.

Let’s be conservative and says he’s a .320 wOBA, 25+ stolen base, average defense guy going forward. That’s basically this year’s version of Erick Aybar, who’s already a two-win player with six weeks left in the season. Five years of that guy at a bargain price will have a ton of value on the trade market. I don’t think that it’s an accident the Mariners wanted him in a potential Cliff Lee trade last year, legit middle infielders that are more than zeroes with the bat are pretty rare these days.

Preston asks: What are the chances the Yankees would/could trade or cut Burnett at the end of the season?

Maybe they’ll try to trade him, but I’m positive the Yankees won’t just release A.J. Burnett this offseason. If they do that, they’re still on the hook for his entire contract, so why not just keep him to see if he can give you anything, even as a reliever? For better or for worse, the Yankees are stuck with A.J. for the next two seasons.

Jeff asks: What do the Yankees do with Russell Martin in the off season? He narrowly qualifies as a Type A player. Do the Yankees offer arbitration whether he is Type A or B? Are Montero or Romine ready to take the job as a catcher in the big leagues? Could the Yankees platoon those two guys with Montero getting some time at DH?

The Type-A stuff doesn’t matter because he doesn’t have six full years of service time yet. You can’t get compensation picks for players you non-tender, and Martin won’t get those six years of service time until after next season. He’d probably get something like $6-6.5M his final time through arbitration after the season, which is a steep price but not the end of the world. The Yankees could use him as a caddy with either Jesus Montero or Austin Romine, breaking those guys in gradually rather than just handing them the starting catcher’s job.

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Mark asks: Do you see the Yankees and Rangers getting into another testy free agent battle for C.J. Wilson this offseason? If yes, do you think he’s worth the high cost and whose spot in the rotation he would take? Thanks!

I have a feeling that we’re going to spent a lot of time talking about Wilson in November and December, so I don’t want to get too deep into it now. He’s obviously worth inquiring about, but I can’t see how in the world he gets less than Burnett or John Lackey did. He’s straight up better than those guys were at the time of their free agency, he’s left-handed, and he doesn’t have the recent injury history either. I like Wilson but I don’t love him, especially at that price. But as the second best starter on the market, the Yankees are bound to show some interest.

As for the last part of your question, I’m guess that one of Freddy Garcia or Bartolo Colon will not be back next year. Even if they are, it won’t be too difficult to free up a rotation spot for a pitcher of Wilson’s caliber.

Chris asks: I read an article that said the Phillies haven’t depleted their farm system in spite of all the trades of the last few years. A) is this true and if so, B) how is it the Yankees are seemingly one deal away from depleting their own? Is the Phillies system that much better?

To answer (A) first, the Phillies have traded 13 prospects (not counting J.A. Happ, who technically wasn’t a prospect) for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence over the last two years or so, and they’ve somehow managed to hold onto Domonic Brown. They started out with a very good farm system and have done a nice job of replenishing it by developing mid-round picks. That said, you can see the toll all those moves have taken on their farm system. They had to scrounge up a pair of Single-A kids to headline a package for Pence because they didn’t have the players in Triple or Double-A to get it done.

The Phillies are in the middle of the best stretch in franchise history and are rightfully in win now mode, because guys like Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and even Lee and Halladay are on the wrong side of 30 and will see their skills decline over the next few years. Their window isn’t infinite, and at some point the well will dry up. It’s kinda like what happened to the Yankees in 2005 or so, but they obviously had a much higher margin of error given their payroll.

As for (B), it’s just a matter of perception. The Yankees could deal two of Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances and still boast a very strong farm system with two legitimate number one type prospects (whichever one of those three is left plus Gary Sanchez), one super-toolsy guy with some major helium (Mason Williams), and a cast of rock solid prospects close to big leagues (Austin Romine, Adam Warren, David Phelps, Corban Joseph, etc.). Yeah, the farm system would take a big hit dealing two of those three, but it would still be in much better shape than half the farm system’s out there.

Mailbag: Cantu, Gordon, Gil, Wilson, Promotions

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I skipped out on the mailbag last Friday because it was a day game, so let’s make up for it today. I’ve got a total of nine questions, so I tried to keep the answers brief. Use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar anytime you want to ask something.

(Photo Credit: LSUsports.net)

Tucker asks: Just curious, if the Yankees hadn’t signed Rafael Soriano, which pick would they hold and who was taken then?

The Yankees gave the Rays the 31st overall pick, which Tampa used to take LSU center fielder Mikie Mahtook. Keith Law and Baseball America ranked him as the 15th and 21st best prospect before the draft, and he figured to come off the board relatively early as one of the top college hitters available. Mahtook is likely to be a right fielder down the line, but he’s a righty hitter that offers good speed and should hit for averae and decent power. I’m not a huge Mahtook fan, but if the Yankees kept that pick and took him, I’d be thrilled. Huge value.

Bart asks: Do you think the Yankees take a chance on either Kazmir or Cantu now that they’re available?

Kazmir’s unquestionably a minor league contract only guy, no doubt about it, but I’m fairly certain Cantu is completely useless. He’s hit just .212/.287/.367 in his last 670 plate appearances, his defense at first and third is awful, and he’s swinging at more and more pitches out of the strike zone despite seeing fewer and fewer pitches in the zone. I’m surprised to see that he’s still 29, but I’d don’t see anyone on the bench I’d take Cantu over. I’d give anyone a minor league deal, and hey, Triple-A Scranton could use a backup first baseman/third baseman/designated hitter, so he makes sense in that regard. For the big league team though? Not right now.

Ben asks: I was wondering how the Yankees could have had a deal in place with Brian Gordon while he was still property of the Phillies organization. Is this not considered tampering? Is this type of thing okay with minor league free agents that have out-clauses? Just hoping for a clarification.

It’s a permission thing. The Phillies sent a memo to the other 29 teams last week indicating that Gordon had an opt-out and they were not planning to promote him to the bigs, which essentially gives teams permission to negotiate a deal with him and his agent.

(Photo Credit: Flickr user bridgetds via Creative Commons license)

Ryan asks: Would there be any merit to switching Granderson and Gardner in the OF? Other than having a “conventional” power hitting LF and a speedy, OBP oriented CF, would there be any defensive difference with Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF?

Certainly, I think there’s some merit to it. Brett Gardner appears to be the superior defender in terms of jumps and read and pure range based on the eye test, though Curtis Granderson is no slouch in that department. I like how the Yankees have brought Granderson in and have him playing a little shallower this year since his strength is going back on the ball. It’s impossible to trust Gardner’s defensive numbers in center only because his playing time has been sporadic out there, but I think the difference over the course of the season would be five or so runs saved by flip-flopping the two. Not negligible, but not a massive upgrade.

J.R. asks: Now that the season is more than 1/3 over, how would you rate Betances and Banuelos? Both seem to be doing well but walking a ton of guys.

They’ve both been fine, certainly not great but also far from terrible. We’ve know that Dellin Betances’ control and command were question marks, they always has been, so his hit or miss starts (no walks in one, five in the next) were expected. Command was Manny Banuelos’ calling card though, and he’s already walked ten more this year than last in 5.1 fewer innings pitched (five fewer batters faced). That’s fine though, remember he just turned 20 in Spring Training and is in Double-A. His age-appropriate level in Low-A right now. They both just need to keep working at it, but remember that Banuelos is still way ahead of the curve.

Conny asks: What’s the scouting report on Jose Gil? He’s having a fine season at Trenton as Romine’s caddy. He looks like he could be a good backup catcher. He seems to have a good throwing arm. He also looks like a capable offensive player, he has a little pop, can steal an occasional base. Is his hitting this season an aberration or has he turned a corner in his development?

It’s more small sample size than anything. He’s hitting .274/.368/.487 in 133 Double-A plate appearances, but it’s also his third straight year spending time at the level. Gil’s always done a good job of throwing attempted basestealers out (34% success rate in his career, which is fantastic), and that’s really I know about his defense right now. The Yankees clearly don’t think he’s going to become anything great because he’s just been a backup catcher that bounces between levels the last few years, filling in whereever a backstop was needed. I want to see more before saying his turned a corner, and a lot more at that.

Sam asks: If you need a stolen base, who would rather be on first? Nunez, Gardner, Martin, Granderson, or Cervelli (he’s veeeeery fast for a catcher, Suzyn)?

Eduardo Nunez and it’s not particularly close right now. For whatever reason Gardner just can’t steal bases anymore, at least not as well as someone with his skill set is supposed to. Granderson’s success rate isn’t all that great this year either, and I’m not going to ask a catcher to steal a base for me. Nunez has stolen eight bags in nine chances this year, and over the last two years his success rate in the minor is 78%. He’s the lesser of several evils right now.

(Photo Credit: Flickr user mjl816 via Creative Commons license)

Justin asks: I’ve heard rumors that C.J. Wilson is looking for A.J. Burnett money, obviously that’s a little steep but if he fell into the Jorge De La Rosa/Ted Lilly range do you think he fits this offseason since there is almost no other decent SP available?

If he falls into that range, which is three years and $35M or so, then I’d certainly want the Yankees to be all over him. I just can’t see it though. Wilson is a) the same age A.J. Burnett and John Lackey where when they hit the market, and b) he’s flat out better now than they were when they were free agents. There’s also the left-handedness to consider and the fact that he’s succeeded in a hitter friendly park. I won’t do it, but I think you can also make a case that Wilson will age better than those two since his arm doesn’t have nearly as many miles on it after spending all those years as a reliever. If he continues to pitch like he is now the rest of the season, I think that five-year, $82.5M contract is a starting point for he and his agent, not a settling point.

Zach asks: At what point in the season can we expect minor league promotions to begin? Who are likely candidates to move up for each level?

Very, very soon, as in this week. The High-A Florida State League played its All-Star Game over the weekend and the Low-A South Atlantic League will get its out of the way early this week, and that’s usually when these things start to happen. As for actual promotions, here’s what I’m guessing will happen…

  • 3B/OF Rob Segedin from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa
  • 3B Rob Lyerly from Tampa to Double-A Trenton
  • LHSP Josh Romanski from Tampa to Trenton
  • RHRP Chase Whitley from Tampa to Trenton

There will be several more promotions, but those are the only moves I see as absolute no-brainers. Calling up Jesus Montero and promoting Austin Romine from Trenton to Triple-A Scranton would make sense as well, but Romine’s injury threw a big wrench into that. Both J.R. Murphy and Slade Heathcott (currently on the DL) have cooled off after hot starts, but they’ve been in Low-A since for more than a full year now following last season’s early-June promotion. I say promote Murphy but not Heathcott. Slade has really, really cooled off (.209/.261/.287 since May 1st).

Banuelos and Betances are still walking guys and need to work on fastball command, and I don’t see any reason to rush them. Promoting them now just makes the command stuff more difficult since they’ll have to figure it out against tougher competition. And besides, the SWB rotation is pretty full at the moment. Shane Greene (currently at Charleston) and Kyle Roller (Charleston but currently injured) could be in line for promotions as well.