Fan Confidence Poll: July 12th, 2010

July 12, 2010 by Mike Axisa 83 Comments

Record Last Week: 6-1 (33 RS, 12 RA)
Season Record: 56-32 (469 RS, 352 RA, 56-32 Pythag. record), 2.0 games up
Schedule This Week: Mon. to Thurs. OFF (All Star break), vs. Rays (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Traveling to the west coast for the final time this season, Javy Vazquez started the road trip with a win. Alex Rodriguez slammed the Yankees to victory the next day, and A.J. Burnett helped complete the sweep on Wednesday.
The Yankees headed to Seattle next, and A-Rod stuck it to his old team with a two-run single late in the game. Phil Hughes dominated the Mariners for another win the next day, but Joba Chamberlain ended the winning streak on Saturday. CC Sabathia shut the door yesterday and sent the Yanks into the All Star break with a win.
Injury Zone: Al Aceves suffered a setback and Mariano Rivera withdrew from the All Star Game citing nagging injuries. Nick Johnson felt pain in his surgically repaired wrist.
The Yanks were on the verge of acquiring Cliff Lee in exchange for a package led by Jesus Montero on Thursday, but Seattle backed out at the last minute and instead traded him to the Rangers. Montero then went out and homered in his first game after the non-trade.
The Yanks are monitoring A’s reliever Michael Wuertz and are still looking for bench help. They did, however, sign Chad Tracy to a minor league deal.
Robbie Cano was set to participate in the Homerun Derby, but had to withdraw because of a minor back issue. Nick Swisher won the Final Vote and will also take his hacks in the Derby. Andy Pettitte replaced the injured Clay Buchholz on the All Star roster.
The Yanks signed Colombian catcher Alfredo Castellon.
Bob Sheppard passed away at age 99.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

{democracy:103}

Ross in Jersey

Is there a reason 9 was omitted from this poll? YOU’LL VOTE 10 AND GODDAMN LIKE IT
- http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
  
  You can have any color you like, as long as you like black.
  
  /HenryFord’d
  /Hobson’sChoice’d
  - nsalem
    
    “Don’t Complain and Don’t Explain” The Elder Henry Ford when caught with a young exotic dancer and Brian Cashman’s upon his arrest in connection with the disappearance of Jack Zduriencik.
    - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
      
      …
      
      I’m sure there’s a clever joke in there somewhere, but I can’t get it through the garbled syntax.
      - nsalem
        
        Oh sorry I forgot to mention that i was the 43rd president of the USA and in the bottom half of my esl class.
        
        nsalem
        
        go rangers
CS Yankee

I’ll go with a 9…on the pace for 100+ wins, SP has been great, Teix is finally heating up, & the overall feel looks solid for the second half.

Kinda glad we didn’t get Lee (ducks)…although it would have changed the likehood of winning #28 this year from (maybe) 65% to (perhaps) 75%+, it would of made the run a bit dull and the MSM (and general fan base of others) hate would have been at an all time high.

Seems like we could use a strong bat for DH/OF/PH duties and I wonder what Dunn will cost come late July?

All is well, looking forward to Jeet/Joba/DH getting on track & thinking that if our old four starters continue to groove we will see Hughes in de 8th come September…not bad at all, not bad at all.
- Ross in Jersey
  
  Pretty sure Dunn has said he doesn’t see himself as a DH, and he seems like overkill for this team anyway.
  - CS Yankee
    
    The Nats are in last place & should be one of the traders come later in the month…
    
    The team that aquires Dunn >>> Dunn’s thoughts on what he sees himself at.
    
    OR
    
    The chance to win a ring >>>>> what you do for three months of your life.
    
    I understand his position (from a monetary & longevity POV)but the reality is that he is a very weak MLB fielder but an incredible power bat.
    
    Lee was overkill (5 solid-great starters), but the overall bench and DH this year is weak so not really overkill, just kill.
    - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
      
      Ironically, if we did trade for Dunn, I bet we’d be getting two free draft picks this winter, because Dunn apparently hates DHing so much that he’d decline arb and likely not negotiate with the Yankees, instead moving back to the NL.
      - CS Yankee
        
        2011 draft is being billed as a larger than a Joba post game meal.
        
        http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
        
        2011 draft is being billed as a larger than a ~~Joba post game meal~~ John Kruk post-meal meal.
        
        Fixed.
        
        king of fruitless hypotheticals
        
        nah dude its not that big. everything has a limit.
      - Johnny O
        
        Yanks are a perfect fit for Adam Dunn July-October 2010. Even if he accepts arb, isn’t he only making $10M/season? I’ll take that with a slight raise for 40 HRs. And if he doesn’t, then it’ll be a guaranteed swap for the picks we give up for Cliff Lee (unlike offering Javy arb).
- CS Yankee
  
  Oh, needless to say but Bob Shepard rates at a 10-plus-plus.
  
  Thanks, Bob for being who you were…the complete professional.
- Chris
  
  it would have changed the likehood of winning #28 this year from (maybe) 65% to (perhaps) 75%+,
  
  I think those percentages are both too high. If you assume the Yankees have a 90% chance to make the playoffs and a 90% chance to win each playoff series (which I think it too optimistic – with or without Lee), then their chances of winning the world series is about 65% (0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9). I don’t mean to nitpick, but I think it’s important to be realistic about the chances of winning the WS when voting in the confidence poll.
- http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
  
  Seems like we could use a strong bat for DH/OF/PH duties and I wonder what Dunn will cost come late July?
  
  Probably still too much (although they may be more willing to move him for a more reasonable rate now that they’re out of it and if he gives them a quasi-guarantee that he’d come back in the winter). Besides, we can probably cobble together a solid enough DH platoon with Thames + Miranda.
  
  I’m still more interested in finding a better utility infielder, since getting a near-starting caliber bat that can play 3B/SS allows us to DH ARod and Jeter more as well and kill two birds with one stone.
  
  If I’m trading for a Natinal, it’s probably Cristian Guzman and not Adam Dunn. Guz is going to cost far less (especially if we eat salary), and he can handle 2B/3B/SS and has played some RF this year; while he’s got no power, he’s hitting .294 and OBPing .343. That’s a quality bench option/fringe starter. He’s also a lock to not get an arb offer due to his high salary, unlike Dunn, so Washington has no compelling reason to hold on to him or price him at Type A levels.
  
  Splits:
  .268/.325/.333 v RHP (.320 BABIP)
  .347/.381/.439 v LHP (.384 BABIP)
  - CS Yankee
    
    Good choice Guz (early Monday AM pun) it helps us in several IF positions.
    
    Add a decent MRP (maybe even a LOOGY) & it should carry the day but we better get Miranda some more AB’s to see if he can stick in the bigs.
    - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
      
      Add a decent MRP (maybe even a LOOGY) & it should carry the day
      
      I still want to add Octavio Dotel. Sure, he’s got some warts, but like Guzman, he’s not going to cost a ton, and unlike Guzman, he’s a Type B that we likely would offer arb to and net a free sandwich pick from.
      
      Dotel was god-awful in April, but since May 1st he’s sporting a 2.81 ERA with a .184/.301/.322 against (.250 BABIP) and a 30/12 K/BB in 25.2 IP. He’s not going to solve all our problems, but he’s a decent quality arm that probably doesn’t cost a real prospect but might net one in return next June.
      
      Oh, and, my second LOOGY idea is still in play, not that anybody wants to listen.
      - Jose the Satirist
        
        Dontrelle is a mess. He won’t be good as a reliever this season. You can count on it.
        
        Tom Zig
        
        He walks a small city.
        
        Jose the Satirist
        
        Get this, they tried him in relief and he allowed three runs in the inning.
        
        After that performance his agent was quoted, “he’s dead to the game.” He also said, “I think he’s more relieved than anything not to be playing right now.”
        
        Chances D-Train pitches for New York: 0.1%
        
        http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
        
        Chances D-Train pitches for New York: 0.1%
        
        SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE!!!!!!!
        
        /LloydChristmas’d
        
        http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
        
        D-Train, 2010:
        
        v RHB: .322/.472/.466 against (.329 BABIP) 17/48 K/BB (no, seriously) in 230 TBF, 15 XBH
        v LHB: .216/.298/.284 against (.341 BABIP), 30/8 K/BB in 85 TBF, 3 XBH
        
        He walks a small city… of right handed batters. Against lefties only, he’s quite effective.
      - CS Yankee
        
        Always liked Dontrelle but having a LOOGY that walks anyone will bring out the firing squad.
        
        Dotel was such a g his “rehab” time with the Yankees that I don’t know if I could go through that again.
        
        Who else you got?
        
        I would of thought that the whole SD bullpen would have been available by now, but they are playing beyond themselves this year.
- http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=9370232 Mike HC
  
  I think Dunn will cost a lot. If the Yanks see him as a DH, and the Nats value you him as a premier power hitting position player (which they most likely do), the difference in valuations is probably too far apart.
  
  I can’t imagine a deal where the Yanks trade for Dunn, but I’m sure they might ask just to see what the Nats are looking for.
Doug

The numbers are flip-flopped this week, right? Either that or I’ve gotta stop drinking this early on a Monday.
- Stryker
  
  yep they’re flipped. have the feeling people won’t even recognize and we’ll be seeing a shitload of 2’s and 3’s.
  - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
    
    /Florida2000’d
    /Ohio2004’d
    - nsalem
      
      2000 yes but not 2004. No explicit rule from making liberal east coast students at kenyon and minorities from waiting 8 hours in the freezing cold to vote.
      - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
        
        No explicit rule from making liberal east coast students at kenyon and minorities from waiting 8 hours in the freezing cold to vote.
        
        (goes to get an English-to-nsalem dictionary to figure out what the hell is being said here)
        
        nsalem
        
        available at fine bookstores everywhere.
- http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering
  
  I almost voted a 2. Close one–luckily I noticed in time to give this team the 1 it deserves. THEY DON’T LOOK LIKE A FIRST PLACE TEAM OMG.
X

i bet ohnson is making it rain with his surgically impaired wrist and the $$ he stole from us.
- Jose the Satirist
  
  “$$ he stole from us.”
  
  He took money out of your wallet also?!?! I thought I was alone.
  - http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
    
    I was so ashamed to tell anyone. I thought I was the only one…
    
    ::cries::
    - CS Yankee
      
      who you gonna call, I can’t find an ohnson that was employeed by the Yankees?
      - SamVa
        
        The man is so clever he even gave a fake name.
        Incredible.
        
        Y
        
        what a character that guy is
    - Pete
      
      not really funny…
Frank

7- The bullpen, besides Mo, is the weak link.
- CS Yankee
  
  You surely jest?
  
  Are you awarding 3 points for the 8th inning lack of mound results…cause that’s a lot of points for one position in one-half of inning of play.
  - Jose the Satirist
    
    It is also worth noting that the 8th inning results by Joba have been a lot of bad luck as well. Sure he has a 5.79 ERA that looks ugly, but he also has a 2.79 FIP. A three run difference between them!
    - Frank
      
      Every player has bad luck. It’s poor command way more than bad luck.
      - Jose the Satirist
        
        He has a .380 BABIP and the highest ERA-FIP in the AL. Every pitcher has bad luck. Joba’s is extra bad this year.
    - ZZ
      
      http://archvillain.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/not-this-again.jpg
      - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
        
        You can complain about it as much as you like, but it’s still true. Joba Chamberlain has pitched poorly, but not all of that poor performance is his fault. He’s also the victim of bad luck. Most pitchers who pitch as poorly as he has don’t have results as dramatically bad as his have been.
        
        Joba looks like a craptastic pitcher thus far, when he’s only actually pitched like a mediocre pitcher thus far. The reason he’s looked worse than he should look is due to luck, vagary, random chance, whatever you want to call it. He’s had more hits fall in than you should expect from his raw pitching peripherals.
  - Frank
    
    Which reliever can you honestly say you have confidence in with a 1 run lead heading into the 7th inning? It’s more than just Joba.
    - SamVa
      
      Phil Hughes…
      
      I keed I keed
    - Pete
      
      marte
Klemy

I really hate that we haven’t made a move to bring up Tracy and Miranda yet, hopefully coming out of the break. I have seen enough of our current, punch-less bench. I assume they have their reasons, because they have to see what everyone else does.

Staying at an 8 until something happens to improve the bench and bullpen. I like the team quite a bit, but the holes are worrisome.
- http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=9370232 Mike HC
  
  What holes? Our bench guys are hitting .210 instead of .240?
  
  Other than having the best closer of all time, our bullpen is up and down?
  
  Those are not holes, that is a normal baseball team.
  - ROBTEN
    
    Those are not holes, that is a normal baseball team
    
    That’s no moon. It’s a space station.
    
    /postmodern’d
- Big Juan
  
  Interesting that you say “we haven’t made a move to bring Tracy and Miranda up yet” — Tracy’s played 3 games with SWB.
  
  Agreed on Miranda though.
  - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
    
    Interesting that you say “we haven’t made a move to bring Tracy and Miranda up yet” — Tracy’s played 3 games with SWB.
    
    WHY THE FUCK IS THIS BURRITO TAKING THIS LONG TO COOK IN THIS MICROWAVE?!?!??!?!??!?!??!?!??!?!!?!
- Ross in Jersey
  
  Yeah, it’s kind of a mystery why Miranda isn’t here yet. Maybe they wanted to give him some extra time since he was fresh off an injury? He’s been raking in AAA and Russo sightings happen less often than Haley’s comet these days. Having Miranda and Thames off the bench is a decent amount of pop.
  
  Also, am I the only one who would rather see Chad Moeller than Cervelli at this point? Cervelli is struggling mightily on both sides of the plate. Might as well let him get back on track in AAA while we make use of a true backup catcher.
  - http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
    
    The only thing I can think of is the way the scheduling worked out. He came off the DL when the Yanks were in Oakland, so they didn’t want to fly him across the county and then have him sit around this week during the break. They probably figured it was better to keep him in AAA through the break, and then call him up after.
- A.D.
  
  Tracy has been in the org for 4 days, wait and see if he hits for an extended period, but I’m sure he’ll get a chance soon enough, if nothing else due to his ability to play 3B.
- Kiersten
  
  Replace Tracy with Alby and this makes sense.
Ross in Jersey

LoHud has a decent article about the remaining schedule, too. Basically the Yankees schedule the rest of the way is easier than the Red Sox or Tampa schedule. To sum it up, the Yankees:

– Have 2 less games against winning teams than BOS/TB

– Have 5 more home games than BOS/TB

– Have not seen KC yet

– Are done traveling to the West Coast

So, hopefully the Yankee offense continues to heat up and they can continue to roll to October.
- Kiersten
  
  With how much the West sucks this year, I don’t know if it’s necessarily an advantage to not have anymore West Coast trips.
  - http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering
    
    Playing crappy West Coast teams at home >>> playing crappy West Coast teams on the road.
  - Ross in Jersey
    
    Yeah, still, I’d rather see the Yankees play anywhere except @LAA. The all-star game is probably the first time in forever I’ll be able to watch a game in that stadium and not wonder how the Yankees will lose the game.
    
    Boston heads out for a long west coast swing right out of the all-star break. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle that, they really can’t afford a bad trip right off the bat.
    - http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
      
      Yep. Not so much that the Yankees aren’t on the West Coast as that the Yankees aren’t going to be at Anaheim.
http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering

This morning Mr. Boland was on ESPN saying he ranks the 2010 Yankees as less dominant than the 2009 team because of the lack of a solid 8th inning man. All this while a graphic is up showing the starting pitching on average is one run better per nine than last year’s rotation at this time. (I think? It was a wonderfully ridiculous difference.)

Screw the bullpen. That kind of stat makes my loins quiver.

9! BOOM.
- http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
  
  That kind of stat makes my loins quiver.
  
  Nice to meet a stat that shares a quality with me.
  - http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering
    
    Your animal magnetism is as strong as an immaculate inning, Tommie.
    - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
      
      My R-squared value is statistically significant.
- Tom Zig
  
  Oh come on you know the 8th inning is more valuable than innings 1-7. GAMES ARE WON AND LOST IN THE 8TH INNING!! The Yankees should put Phil Hughes in the 8th inning to shore up the bullpen. Joba can pitch the 7th, less pressure there for the head case.
  
  /Did I touch all the narratives?
  - http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering
    
    You forgot the part where Joba shouldn’t be in the bullpen because it takes too much out of the overweight, uncaring fatass to run from the BP to the mound when he’s called on to pitch.
- Ross in Jersey
  
  I guess people forget that Hughes, who was dominant all year in the 8th inning, was largely ineffective in the postseason. Yet, that postseason run seemed to finish okay.
  
  When it comes down to it, in the postseason, the 8th inning role clearly becomes diminished. Joe is much more likely to mix and match and then use Mo for a 4 or 5 out save. Joba for a righty, Marte for a lefty, Mo for the win.
  
  In any case, saying the team isn’t as good because of a role that doesn’t even matter in the postseason is pretty asinine. Unless he’s suggesting the Yankees won’t make the postseason because of Joba, which is equally retarded.
  - http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
    
    I guess people forget that Hughes, who was dominant all year in the 8th inning, was largely ineffective in the postseason. Yet, that postseason run seemed to finish okay.
    
    THANK YOU. I understand being concerned about the bullpen, and it’s certainly an issue. But I’ve seen people say “Without a dominant 8th inning guy, we have no chance of winning the WS!!!!” Um, Hughes completely sucked throughout pretty much the entire postseason last year, guys. Girardi basically had to tapdance through the bullpen by the World Series. And last year turned out okay.
    - http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
      
      Small sample sizes: Only bring them up when they reinforce our pre-selected narrative.
      
      Sincerely,
      The MSM
      - Ross in Jersey
        
        Not sure if you’re serious, but if you are…
        
        Postseason performances are by definition small sample sizes unless your name is Derek Jeter. We can’t just ignore what happens in the postseason because they’re small samples. And its not like I’m using his numbers and saying he’s a choker, just pointing out that the 2009 Yankees won a World Series without an effective 8th inning reliever.
http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

I was at a 5, but Pettitte’s Dove commercials put me all the way to 9
- http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
  
  I was shocked by the lack of nudity. I was expecting full wang.
  - http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
    
    Yeah, me too! DAMN YOU AND YOUR NICE CHRISTIAN SENSIBILITIES ANDY.
    
    No lie: like two minutes after I wrote this, the actual ad came on TV. I actually made a happy squeaky noise. Yep.
    - http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=9370232 Mike HC
      
      Does that mean I think it means
      
      (thinks for a sec)
      
      No, couldn’t be
      - http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama
        
        I don’t even want to know but I did actually go “eep” out loud when the commercial came on.
- boogie down
  
  “I just went from 6 to midnight”
http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

Also, let me just highlight this:

Record Last Week: 6-1 (33 RS, 12 RA)

7 games
12 runs allowed.

Girlboner.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  Four of those twelve runs were Joba’s fault, too.
  - http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering
    
    Our rotation is sick. /drools