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DotF: Miller, Katoh have big days in Scranton’s doubleheader

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Both RHP Trevor Stephan and RHP Nick Nelson were placed on the Double-A Trenton injured list recently. That’s not good. I’d say both are unlikely call-ups this year, but they are possible trade chips, and injuries could throw a wrench into things. Hopefully it’s nothing serious, whatever the injuries are.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders Game One (7-6 win over Syracuse in ten innings, walk-off style) completion of yesterday’s game, which was suspended due to rain after the top of the first inning

  • 1B-2B Brad Miller: 2-5, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K — here’s video of the homer, which was a bomb … the team says it went 482 feet
  • SS Cliff Pennington: 1-5, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SB — walk-off homer … three homers in 15 games … the MLB ball and Triple-A pitching makes for a hell of a combination
  • RF Trey Amburgey: 2-4, 1 2B, 1 BB
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 0-3, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K — first game since being sent down
  • 2B-3B Gosuke Katoh: 3-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 E (fielding) — now hitting .353/.431/.686 through 15 Triple-A games
  • RHP Drew Hutchison: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 5/3 GB/FB — 72 of 107 pitches were strikes (67%)
  • LHP Rex Brothers: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 2/0 GB/FB — 26 of 44 pitches were strikes (59%) … 15/4 K/BB in 9.1 innings

[Read more…]

An Important Year in the Farm System [2019 Season Preview]

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Florial. (Presswire)

Two years ago the Yankees had arguably the top farm system in baseball. Uncharacteristically, they traded veterans for prospects at the 2016 trade deadline, and several of their own players took big steps forward with their development. Gleyber Torres came over in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar? All originally drafted or signed by the Yankees.

That monster farm system of two years ago has become a powerhouse MLB team. The Yankees surprisingly won 91 games in 2017, not-so-surprisingly won 100 games in 2018, and now they go into 2019 on the very short list of realistic World Series contenders. They’ve graduated or traded many top prospects, and have tumbled down the farm system rankings as a result:

“Being ranked as everybody’s top farm system isn’t our goal. Our goal is to be ranked as winning the World Series,” said amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to Greg Joyce last month. “… Everything’s a cycle in this thing. You get to a point where, if you’re going to try to win, you end up trading prospects. So we’ve traded quite a few guys over the last few years to help us acquire talent to help us win at the big league level, and that’s what we’re there to do. We’re in one of those cycles now where we gotta dump some more guys into the system.”

As the big league team contends this summer, the farm system will be in something of a rebuild, in that they have a plethora of young low minors prospects looking to take that step toward becoming the next wave of great Yankees prospects. The high-end upper minors talent isn’t there like it has been the last two years, and that could be an issue come trade deadline time. Time to preview the year ahead in the farm system.

Top Prospects Who Could Help This Season

There is only one: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga. In fact, the Yankees’ No. 2 prospect is set to join the rotation in a few days, after CC Sabathia’s five-game suspension ends. That is almost certainly a temporary move with Sabathia due to return in mid-April and Luis Severino hopefully sometime in early-May. Loaisiga is going to join the Yankees soon though, and that gives him a chance to help the team and force the club to keep him around longer.

Of course, Loaisiga has a long injury history and very limited experience (184.1 career innings!), plus he has never thrown a pitch in Triple-A, so he would presumably benefit from some Triple-A time. I imagine he’ll be returned to the minors at some point. Loaisiga has a quality three-pitch mix as well as good control, plus he seems unflappable on the mound, which are good traits for a young pitcher. Point is, Loaisiga is the only high-end upper minors prospect we figure to see in the Bronx this year.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help This Season

OF Estevan Florial, the Yankees’ top prospect, will begin the season on the injured list after breaking his wrist crashing into the outfield wall this spring. I suppose the good news is he’ll only be in a cast three weeks, meaning his recovery may not be as long as you’d expect. Three weeks in a cast seems to indicate he could be back in games sometime in May. That would be ideal. We’ll see.

The injury is unfortunate because Florial has a clear flaw in his pitch recognition — “I’m a young player. It’s tough to know what pitch to select. Try to know the pitch I can drive, and what I can’t, too,” Florial said to Brendan Kuty last month — and the only way to improve on that is with game reps. There’s no substitute for seeing live action pitching. Florial missed time with wrist surgery last year, so he has a lot of catching up to do. Once healthy, he’ll likely go to High-A Tampa or Double-A Trenton. Either way, we won’t see Florial in the big leagues this summer.

After Florial and Loaisiga, the next five best prospects in the farm system are all teenagers: C Anthony Seigler, OF Everson Pereira, OF Antonio Cabello, RHP Deivi Garcia, and RHP Roansy Contreras. On one hand, hooray for having so many very talented teenagers. On the other hand, none of those guys will come close to sniffing the big leagues. Seigler, Pereira, and Cabello may not even see full season ball this year, and Contreras could spend the entire season with Low-A Charleston.

Garcia made one Double-A spot start at the end of last season but he is unlikely to start this season at that level. Not after making only six (excellent) starts with High-A Tampa. Seems to me Deivi will return to Tampa for a few weeks before being bumped back up to Trenton. His best case scenario will be a late-season cameo with Triple-A Scranton. If we see Garcia in the big leagues this year, either something went very right (he really broke out) or very wrong (everyone got hurt).

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help This Season

Tarpley. (Presswire)

The Yankees will have at least one of their non-top prospects on the Opening Day roster. LHP Stephen Tarpley, who pitched well last September and was great this spring, will be in the bullpen. He definitely has a chance to carve out a long-term role this summer. In all likelihood though, Tarpley will ride the shuttle up and down a few times. That’s just how it goes for a young reliever with options, especially when he’s the last guy in the bullpen.

Another reliever we could see at some point: RHP Domingo Acevedo. Lindsey Adler says Acevedo pitched in relief in minor league camp this spring and the Yankees wouldn’t do that unless he was moving into the bullpen full-time. I’m definitely down with this. Acevedo has struggled to stay healthy as a starter and he still hasn’t developed his slider into a reliable third pitch. Let him air it out for an inning at a time with the big fastball (and changeup) and there’s a chance very good things will happen. I’m looking forward to seeing Acevedo in short relief stints.

RHP Chance Adams and RHP Mike King are the top two Triple-A depth starters at the moment, though King suffered a stress reaction in his elbow early in camp, and is still working his way back. He’s expected to join the RailRiders in early May. Once he does, King could jump ahead of Adams on the call-up list. He had a monster 2018 season statistically and, at least prior to the injury, had firmer stuff and control than Adams, who’s taken a step back the last two seasons. Still, Adams is on the 40-man roster, so we’ll see him work shuttle duty at some point.

Double-A hurlers RHP Trevor Stephan, RHP Garrett Whitlock, and RHP Nick Nelson probably will not see the big leagues this summer. They’re not on the 40-man roster yet — Stephan and Whitlock don’t have to be added to the 40-man until after next season — and there are a few guys ahead of them on the depth chart, but, anytime you begin the season in Double-A, you have a chance to play in MLB. They will, they do. Pitch well in Double-A and they’ll find themselves in Triple-A in short order, and force a call-up conversation.

The Mike Tauchman pickup and Tyler Wade demotion makes it less likely we will see IF Thairo Estrada this year, or at least see him anytime soon, especially after a lost season last year. A few weeks (months?) worth of at-bats with Triple-A Scranton is what Estrada needs right now, but, if the Yankees have a need at the MLB level and he’s the best option, they will call him up. I imagine we’ll see Thairo as at least a September call-up this summer.

Breakout Candidates

This is where all that young low minors talent comes into play. Guys like Seigler, Pereira, Cabello, and Contreras are prime breakout candidates who could put themselves into the top 100 prospect discussion after the season. (Deivi broke out last year, I’d say.) Pereira and Cabello in particular are very high upside players who could very well rank 1-2 in the farm system in a few months. They’re that good and that talented.

This year’s Pereira and Cabello, meaning the highly regarded international signings set to make their pro debut, should be OF Kevin Alcantara and RHP Osiel Rodriguez. Alcantara ($1M bonus) stood out for his hitting ability when he signed and he’s already growing into some power. Rodriguez ($600,000) boasts a deep power arsenal and, like many Cuban pitchers, he throws from a variety of arm angles to create deception.

Hard-throwing RHP Luis Gil kinda sorta broke out last year, and he might have the best fastball in the farm system. He’s upper-90s regularly and has a high spin rate on everything. Gil is the quintessential modern pitching prospect. RHP Juan Then and RHP Yoendrys Gomez are other young low minors guys who stand out more for their know-how and pitchability than lighting up the radar gun. That said, neither guy is short on stuff.

A few levels higher, the Yankees are finally set to turn 2017 first round pick RHP Clarke Schmidt loose. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year and pitched well in limited action. The Yankees will not be reckless with Schmidt — they don’t have him penciled him for 180 innings or anything — but he’ll finally get a chance to hold down a rotation spot and show what he can do. He’s been an afterthought since being drafted because of the Tommy John surgery. Schmidt’s kinda like adding a new prospect to the system all together.

Second tier outfield prospects like OF Josh Stowers and OF Anthony Garcia may not have the pure upside that Pereira and Cabello offer, though they do bring a lot to the table. In Garcia’s case, that means a lot of power. A lot. He’s a switch-hitter who can hit the ball a mile from both sides of the plate. Stowers is more well-rounded and will impact the game a lot of different ways. Offensively, defensively, on the bases, etc. He strikes me as a sneaky good breakout candidate.

Between international free agency and trades (Gil, Stowers, and Then were all acquired in trades), the Yankees have stocked the lower levels of the minors with exciting talent, and it was all by design. They picked up these kids very early in their careers — over the winter they traded for a pitching prospect yet to appear in a pro game — and will try to develop them into the next wave of top prospects. That’s the plan. The farm system may lack upper minors talent. In the low minors though, forget it. The Yankees are stacked, and that equals a small army of breakout candidates.

Returning From Injury

Technically, RHP Albert Abreu finished last year healthy, though injuries have given him trouble since coming over from the Astros in the Brian McCann trade. The power four-pitch mix is impressive. The lack of control and lack of durability are not. More than anything at this point, Abreu needs reps so he can work on refining his game. A full healthy season would be welcome in 2019. It could also land him a big league call-up at some point.

RHP Freicer Perez is a more traditional injury comeback story. He made six ugly starts last season before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The good news? Perez only had bone spurs removed. His labrum, rotator cuff, and capsule are all intact. A lost season is a lost season though, and this year Perez will look to get back on track with a healthy shoulder. He went into last year as one of the top prospects in the system. Getting back to that level after shoulder surgery remains possible.

The forgotten pitching prospect in the system is RHP Glenn Otto, the Yankees’ fifth round pick in 2017. He made two starts with Low-A Charleston last year before having season-ending surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder. Yikes. When healthy, Otto showed a good low-to-mid-90s fastball with a hammer high-spin curveball that is seemingly allergic to bats. There were questions about his durability and changeup even before the surgery, but, even if Otto is a reliever long-term, he could be a good one. His coming out party is set for this summer.

Make or Break Year?

Holder. (Presswire)

The 2014-15 international spending spree, while well-intended, has worked out very poorly. Florial is far and away the best prospect to come out of that signing class and he was a small bonus guy later in the signing period, not a headliner. Many of those 2014-15 kids have already washed out. Others, like 3B Dermis Garcia and SS Hoy Jun Park, still have some prospect value. Not much, but some.

Garcia’s calling call remains (and always will be) his power. He moved down the defensive spectrum to first base last year — apparently he’s going to give third base another try this year — and plans to turn him into a two-way player were apparently put on hold. Dermis did throw bullpen sessions late last season but he never appeared in a game as a pitcher. Alas. Garcia will move up to High-A Tampa this year after two seasons with Low-A Charleston. Another year of contact and defensive issues mean you can probably close the book on his days as a serious prospect.

After Florial, Park probably has the best chance to reach the big leagues among 2014-15 signees. He’s a very good defensive middle infielder who draws a lot of walks and can steal bases, but is short on power and exit velocity. Power is tough to project these days because of changes to the baseball, so perhaps we shouldn’t ding Park too much. He has a chance to rebuild some prospect stock with Double-A Trenton this year. The concern is advanced pitchers will knock the bat out of his hands. This is a big year for Park.

IF Kyle Holder has Major League ready defensive tools, but he hasn’t hit much in his career to date, and we haven’t seen much progress either. To be fair to Holder, he dealt with serious injury (broken vertebrae) and off-the-field matters (his brother passed away) last season, so we should cut him a break on the lack of development. That said, he is a soon-to-be 25-year-old defensive wiz with little to offer at the plate. Another year without much offensive progress and it’ll be time to look ahead to other infield prospects.

I think OF Isiah Gilliam has reached make or break status as well. He’s closing in on his 23rd birthday and saw marked declines in his power output, his walk rate, and his strikeout rate after moving from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa last season. As a non-elite bat-only corner outfielder, it doesn’t take much to get left behind. Gilliam has to rebound with a strong season this year, likely back with Tampa, to avoid becoming an afterthought.

Prospects I Am Excited About

Gosh, there are lots. Seigler, Pereira, and Contreras are at the top of the list. I also can’t give up on RHP Luis Medina yet, even after he walked 46 batters in 36 rookie ball innings last year. Medina turns only 20 in May, and he lights up the radar gun with his fastball and has a knee-buckling high-spin curveball, and I just can’t give up on that despite the extreme control problems. Medina’s going to be a long-term project and I am willing to be patient because the upside is so great.

OF Raimfer Salinas should be in the Pereira and Cabello group — Salinas ($1.85M) received a larger signing bonus than Pereira ($1.4M) and Cabello ($1.35M), which tells you how much the Yankees like him — but finger and knee injuries cut short his pro debut last year. When healthy, he features an advanced approach at the plate with some power, as well as very good defensive chops. Salinas probably belongs in the “Breakout Candidates” group. I really like him. He has a lot of ability.

OF Pablo Olivares has long been a personal favorite with his “do everything well but nothing exceptionally” skill set. RHP Frank German and RHP Tanner Myatt are two 2018 draftees I like for different reasons. German has already gained velocity as a pro and features a nice little slider. Myatt is a huge (6-foot-7) extreme hard-thrower (up to 101 mph) with an occasionally great curveball. He reminds me a bit of Kyle Farnsworth, which I know will drive some people nuts, but Farnsworth played 16 years in the big leagues as a late-inning reliever. That would be a heck of an outcome for an 11th round pick like Myatt.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Of course they will. The Yankees are a win-now team, so if when they need help at the trade deadline, they will trade prospects in an effort to get over the hump. They did it the last two trade deadlines and there’s no reason to think they won’t do it again this year. That’s the entire point of a farm system. To help address big league roster needs, either by graduating prospects to the show, or by using them as trade chips.

To me, Nelson stands out as a potential trade candidate. He will be Rule 5 Draft after the season and I get the feeling he falls into the same category as Dillon Tate and Josh Rogers last year. The “good prospect the Yankees don’t really know what to do with who is on the 40-man roster bubble” group. The other Double-A arms like Abreu, Stephan, Whitlock could all become trade candidates given the club’s lack of high-end Triple-A talent. Double-A starters are the next best thing.

Even before the injury, I don’t think the Yankees would’ve hesitated for a second to trade Florial in the right deal. Would they give him away? No way. But Florial is their best chance to acquire an impact player on July 31st. As long as he comes back from the wrist injury well, his trade value should remain intact. The Yankees professed their love for Justus Sheffield right up until they traded him. I could see the same happening with Florial.

The Yankees traded 15 prospects in the days leading up to the last two trade deadlines. Some were big names (Blake Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, etc.) and many were second and third tier guys (Josh Rogers, Billy McKinney, Luis Rijo, Zack Littell). I think the Yankees are at the point where no prospect is off-limits. I thought Gleyber Torres was untouchable as it gets two years ago. Now? There’s no one in the system like that. Not even close.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

Because the system is built mainly around pitching and very young low minors prospects, the Yankees have a boom or bust farm system right now. If the pitchers stay healthy and some of those teenagers figure it out, this could again be one of the top systems in baseball, and I mean as soon as next spring. The Yankees have gotten pretty good at developing players, thankfully. The chances of a farm system breakout in 2019 aren’t small.

Then again, if some of those pitchers get hurt — I have 18 pitchers in my top 30 prospects list and normal attrition suggests a few of them are going to feel something that requires a lengthy shutdown, that’s just baseball — and those teenagers need more than one or two pro seasons to hit their stride, the Yankees will again have a system ranked in the bottom half of the league next year. It’s not the end of the world, but a great farm system is a heck of a lot more fun than a mediocre one.

“I believe our system is one of the stronger ones in the game. It’s just the timing of everything. (The top talent) just happens to be at the lower levels. We are very pitching deep with a lot of high-end young arms,” said Brian Cashman to Randy Miller last month. “I’m not saying the system rankings are wrong. I will tell you this: As long as our guys stay healthy and develop the way we think they’re capable of developing, the system rankings are going to be radically different next year.”

Two surprise Spring Training non-roster invitees and three notable omissions

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Ford. (John Raoux/AP)

In eight days pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training and begin the long journey that is the 2019 season. Position players will follow five days later, then, five days after that, the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game. We’re closing in on real live baseball. Thank goodness for that.

With Spring Training coming up, the Yankees announced their non-roster invitees late last week, and by and large the 21 names were as expected. There are veteran journeymen on minor league contracts, notable prospects like Estevan Florial and Mike King, and mid-range prospects like Kyle Holder. Same thing year after year after year.

There are, inevitably, a few surprise non-roster invitees each spring. Surprise invitees and surprise omissions. Some guys you don’t expect get invited to camp and some guys you expect don’t get invited to camp. Here are two surprise non-roster invitees and three notable omissions from big league camp.

Surprise Non-Roster Invitees

RHP Cale Coshow
The Yankees brought Coshow, now 26, to Spring Training as a non-roster player last year, so I suppose it is not that surprising he was invited again this year. Coshow struggled with Triple-A Scranton last year, however, throwing 56.1 innings with a 4.95 ERA (4.61 FIP) and a good strikeout rate (26.3%), but too many walks (11.2%) and too many homers (1.44 HR/9). Here is a snippet of 2080 Baseball’s most recent scouting report:

His plus to double-plus fastball was sitting comfortably at 93-to-96 mph (T97) and it’s a real weapon that he uses aggressively, but his command of the offering is below average … His slider is average, but inconsistent … It’s hard to see the stuff playing at the major league level if the fastball command and control profile don’t improve, and the best outcome is that of high-risk Role 30, AAAA emergency arm used in sixth-or-seventh innings, as there’s too much risk deploying him in the high-leverage, late-inning situations that the Yankees might have envisioned his raw stuff being suited for.

Hey, there’s value in being an up-and-down depth arm. It’s not glamorous but it gets you a big league paycheck every once in a while. If the Yankees believe Coshow can be a shuttle reliever — inviting him to camp suggests the team believes he can have some sort of MLB role — then it’s worth bringing him to Spring Training for a look. See what the big league coaching staff thinks and make an evaluation.

There are a few reasons I thought Coshow would not get an invite to camp. One, he had a tough year in Triple-A last season. Two, he looks to be no higher than 12th on the bullpen depth chart. And three, he’s now been passed over in the Rule 5 Draft three times, which is a pretty good indication the rest of the league doesn’t see much MLB value. Instead, Coshow will be back in big league camp this spring, and that means he’ll have a chance to show teams they were wrong to overlook him.

1B Mike Ford
This will be Ford’s first big league camp with the Yankees. He was in camp with the Mariners as a Rule 5 Draft last spring, did not make the team, then was returned to the Yankees before Opening Day. In his first full Triple-A season the 26-year-old put up a decidedly meh .253/.327/.433 (114 wRC+) batting line with 15 homers and the lowest walk rate (9.0%) of his career in 410 plate appearances. For a bat-only first baseman, that’s not good.

Luke Voit and Greg Bird are set to compete for the big league first base job in Spring Training — Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone have indicated it is Voit’s job to lose — plus DJ LeMahieu figures to see time at the position as well. The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as something of a super utility guy and getting familiar with first base will be a necessity. Other non-roster guys like Ryan Lavarnway and Francisco Diaz have first base experience as well.

To me, Ford is at best fourth on the first base depth chart behind Voit, Bird, and LeMahieu, and my hunch is if Voit and Bird don’t work out, the Yankees would look outside the organization for help rather than play LeMahieu and his non-first base caliber bat at first base full-time. Ford figures to play in the late innings of Grapefruit League games, against minor leaguers, and I’m not sure there’s anything he can do in those spots to show the Yankees he’s a viable first base depth option. There’s no harm in bringing him to camp, of course. I just didn’t expect it to happen.

Notable Non-Roster Omissions

RHP J.P. Feyereisen
Feyereisen, like Coshow, is a hard-throwing righty with bad command who’s been passed over in numerous Rule 5 Drafts. The 26-year-old who had a 4.95 ERA (4.61 FIP) in Triple-A last year was invited to big league camp. The 25-year-old with a 3.45 ERA (3.75 FIP) in Triple-A last year was not invited to big league camp. There is of course much more to life than Triple-A ERA and FIP. A quick glance at the surface stats is enough to make you go “huh” though.

This will be Coshow’s second big league camp and it would’ve been Feyereisen’s third. Maybe the Yankees give these fringy bad command relievers two camps to strut their stuff and that’s it? The simplest possible explanation is the most likely explanation: The Yankees like Coshow better than Feyereisen. Feyereisen, the fourth piece in the Andrew Miller trade, may’ve had the better Triple-A numbers last year, but the analytics may like Coshow more. I expected Feyereisen to get a non-roster invitee before Coshow. Shows what I know.

RHP Nick Nelson
The Yankees have several interesting power arms slated to begin the 2019 season with Double-A Trenton and Nelson is chief among them. The 23-year-old had 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) with 27.5% strikeouts and a few too many walks (12.1%) in 121.1 innings at three levels last year, including Double-A. Here’s a piece of 2080 Baseball’s latest scouting report:

(He) generates plus velocity (touching 98 mph at best, sitting 94-to-96 mph) from core muscles and efficient mechanics. A high-70s curveball shows sharp bite and tight two-plane depth at best, though he struggles to keep the pitch for strikes right now. His 86-to-89 mph changeup is thrown too hard but shows promising armside dive at best … his three-pitch mix gives the best-case ceiling of a power back-rotation type. It’s easy to see Nelson in a bullpen role if he needs a long-term fallback.

Nelson was a two-way player in college who has been pitching full-time for only two and a half seasons, so while he reached Double-A last year, he’s not the experienced pitching prospect. He will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season though, and I thought the Yankees would want to get him in front of the big league coaching staff at least once before the 40-man roster decision. I guess not.

Even with limited full-time pitching experience and some control issues, the 23-year-old Nelson topped 100 innings each of the last two seasons, and his stuff is plenty good enough to face rusty big leaguers in exhibition games. Bringing Nelson to camp this year would’ve been akin to bringing Dillon Tate to camp last year. That big-armed righty coming up on Rule 5 Draft eligibility who, if you squint your eyes, you could see helping the Yankees in a relief role in the coming season.

RHP Trevor Stephan
Stephan is another one of those interesting arms slated to begin the season in Double-A. He spent way more time at Double-A last year than Nelson (83.1 innings to 8.2 innings), and his overall performance was very good. Stephen tossed 124.1 total innings with a 3.69 ERA (3.60 FIP) and strong strikeout (26.8 K%) and walk (7.3 BB%) rates. He’s a fastball/slider guy with a funky delivery who is hell on righties.

The Yankees selected Stephan with their third round pick in the 2017 draft, so he only has one full pro season under his belt, but that lack of experience hasn’t stopped them from bringing pitchers to big league camp before. Taylor Widener was a non-roster invitee with one pro season last year. Same with James Kaprielian and Chance Adams the year before. Lack of pro experience isn’t a dealbreaker.

Stephen not being invited to big league camp surprises me more than any other non-roster non-invite this year. He’s a quality prospect with bat-missing stuff and Double-A experience, and once you’re in Double-A, you’re an MLB option. Ask Jonathan Loaisiga. He jumped from Double-A to MLB last season. Skipped right over Triple-A. Stephan throws enough strikes that debuting in a bullpen role this year is not impossible. Likely? No. But I thought the Yankees would want to get a look at him in big league camp given his proximity to the show. Guess not.

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Receiving a non-roster invite does not mean the player is destined for a big league role. Coshow could just be an inventory arm to pitch those late innings in the first few Grapefruit League games. Also, not receiving an invitation to big league camp is not the end of the world either. Stephen Tarpley did not get a non-roster invite last year and he wound up on the ALDS roster. Force the issue and the Yankees will give you a chance.

Given the first base depth chart, I was surprised to see Ford get a non-roster invite — how much has to go wrong for him to start at first base in the Bronx at some point this year? — and I definitely thought one of those Double-A arms like Nelson or Stephan would get a look in camp. The Yankees have a lot of pitching prospects at the moment. An awful lot. Other than King, none of them will be in camp. From a selfish “I want to see prospects in Spring Training!” perspective, it’s a bummer.

Previewing the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2019

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(Presswire)

Three weeks from tomorrow pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin Spring Training 2019. And, at some point between now and then, the Yankees will announce their non-roster invitees. Those are non-40-man roster players they are bringing to Major League Spring Training. All other non-40-man players go to minor league camp at the Himes Complex across the street.

Non-roster invitees come in all shapes and sizes. Some are top prospects and some are mid-range prospects. Others are veteran journeymen trying to hang on. Teams usually bring 20-25 non-roster players to camp each last year. Last spring the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp. Two years ago it was 23. Expect a similar amount this spring. The 40-man roster plus 20-25 non-roster invitees equals 60-65 total players in Spring Training.

So, with the non-roster invitee list due to be announced in the near future, I figured this is as good a time as any to look at the minor leaguers who could find themselves in big league camp this year. Some are obvious. Many aren’t. Let’s break this down position-by-position.

Catchers

(40-Man Roster Players: Kyle Higashioka, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez)

Every year every team invites a bunch of non-roster catchers to Spring Training. Why? Because who else is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions and simulated games? The workload has to be spread around. And remember, Sanchez is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery. It was his non-throwing shoulder, but still. The Yankees will take it easy on him in February and March because they don’t want to put him at risk of missing time between April and November. Expect to see plenty of non-roster catchers against this spring.

Do not, however, expect to see Anthony Seigler or Josh Breaux, the Yankees’ top two picks in last year’s draft. It is not the appropriate place for them at this point of their careers. Only once in the last 13 years have the Yankees brought their first round pick in the previous year’s draft to Spring Training as a non-roster player. That was James Kaprielian in 2016. Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain didn’t even get non-roster invites in 2007. Seigler and Breaux won’t be in big league camp. It’s not their time.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Ryan Lavarnway, Ryan Lidge, Donny Sands. Add in the three 40-man roster guys and that’s seven catchers total. Plenty for bullpens. Lavarnway signed a minor league deal and has big league time, so it’s safe to assume he’ll be a non-roster guy. Diaz has been a non-roster invitee each of the last three years. The Yankees re-signed him as a minor league free agent a few weeks ago and I’m sure he’ll again be in camp as a non-roster guy.

Lidge was the Yankees’ 20th round pick in 2017 and he played most of his games last year with Double-A Trenton. A catcher with Double-A time is prime “someone to catch spring bullpens” fodder. I’m on the fence about Sands. He has no Double-A time and only 42 High-A games under his belt. I’m just not sure who else it would be with Chace Numata and Jorge Saez, non-roster catchers last year, no longer in the organization. Maybe the Yankees have a low profile catcher signing coming? I could see it. I feel good about Diaz, Lavarnway, and Lidge. The seventh spot is a little more wide open.

Infielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Thairo Estrada, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade)

Holder. (@MiLB)

The Yankees currently have nine infielders on the 40-man roster. Nine! That’s a ton. One of them is Gregorius, who won’t actually play in Spring Training because he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but eight 40-man infielders is still a lot. Torres and Andujar are locked into positions now — that wasn’t the case last spring — but there’s the Tulowitzki comeback attempt and LeMahieu learning how to be a utility guy, so there will be some infield intrigue in Spring Training.

Almost every notable infield prospect in the organization is already on the 40-man roster. Kyle Holder is the exception. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring. He also played only 48 games last season due to injury and family matters, and he was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. I still think the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp as a non-roster guy. Holder’s a relatively recent high draft pick and gosh can the kid play defense. If you stuck around to watch the late innings of Grapefruit League games last year, you saw him play a beautiful shortstop.

Lower level infield prospects like Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, and Hoy Jun Park are not non-roster caliber players. Not right now and, given their development in recent years, maybe not ever. In most other years I’d be tempted to say Brandon Wagner is a non-roster candidate. He reached Double-A last season and finished one off the farm system home run lead. That said, there will be so many 40-man roster infielders in camp this year that I think Wagner gets squeezed out. There are only so many at-bats to go around.

My Prediction: Holder and Gio Urshela. Urshela, like Lavarnway, signed a minor league deal earlier this offseason and has big league time. He’ll be in Spring Training as a non-roster dude. Holder, Urshela, and the 40-man roster guys give the Yankees ten infielders for camp, not including Gregorius. Voit and Bird are the only true first basemen among those ten, but LeMahieu is apparently going to play some first, and both Lavarnway and Diaz have played the position as well. Maybe we’ll even see Andujar at first base. Either way, the Yankees are covered.

Outfielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton)

Florial. (Presswire)

Frazier was recently cleared to play in Spring Training and that’s great news. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does with good health this season. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is coming back from hip surgery and a few weeks ago Brian Cashman admitted Ellsbury is questionable for Opening Day. If he’s questionable for Opening Day, then he’s questionable for Spring Training. So that’s really five healthy 40-man roster outfielders.

The Yankees have several near elite center field prospects but only one, Estevan Florial, will get a Spring Training invite. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring and will be back this year as the team’s top prospect. Others like Everson Pereira and Antonio Cabello will be in minor league camp. Pereira is 17 and Cabello is 18. They are babies. Big league camp is not the right place for them. (Also, Cabello is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery, which is another reason to send him to minor league camp.)

With only five healthy 40-man roster outfielders — and one of those five was only recently cleared for full-fledged baseball activities — it seems to me the Yankees will bring at least one upper level depth outfielder to camp as a non-roster player. The likely candidates: Trey Amburgey, Jeff Hendrix, and Zack Zehner. Hendrix saw quite a bit of time as a minor league call-up in road games last spring. Amburgey is the best prospect of the bunch though, and prospect status tends to break ties.

My Prediction: Amburgey, Florial, Billy Burns, Matt Lipka. Burns and Lipka signed minor league deals earlier this month and the Yankees officially announced both contracts include an invitation to Spring Training, so there you go. There’s no mystery here. They’ll be there. Amburgey, Burns, Florial, and Lipka plus the five healthy 40-man roster guys would give the Yankees nine outfielders in Spring Training. Wade can play the outfield too, so that’s ten. That’s plenty. Part of me wonders if we’ll see LeMahieu out there at some point.

Right-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Chance Adams, Dellin Betances, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Chad Green, Joe Harvey, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and eventually Adam Ottavino)

King. (@MiLB)

Heller is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he’s a Spring Training non-factor. I’m looking forward to seeing Abreu and Acevedo in Grapefruit League action, personally. Abreu missed camp last year after having his appendix removed and Acevedo was held back because he spent part of the offseason recovering from a shoulder issue and his velocity was down. I also want to see Harvey because I’ve never seen him before, and Kahnle because I’m curious about his velocity. Hopefully it returns.

Anyway, the Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects. Too bad so many of them are in the low minors. You’re not going to see Luis Medina or Roansy Contreras or even Deivi Garcia in big league camp. Garcia is at best a maybe. I’m not saying that because I don’t like him as a prospect. I do. I’m saying that because history suggests the Yankees will not bring a 19-year-old pitching prospect to big league camp. It’s just not something they do. It’s not something many teams do, in fact.

The second tier pitching prospects though, the 20-somethings with Double-A (and in some cases Triple-A) time? We’ll see a few in camp. Always do. Mike King is an obvious yes. Do what he did last year while reaching Triple-A and you’ve earned yourself a non-roster invite. There’s a pretty good chance King will be called up at some point in 2019 and the Yankees will want him to get to know his teammates and coaches before that, and vice versa. Spring Training is the time to do it. King’s as easy a yes as it gets.

Nick Nelson, Trevor Stephan, and Garrett Whitlock are all potential non-roster candidates as well. So is Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees’ first round pick two years ago, in my opinion. He completed his Tommy John surgery rehab last season and pitched well in his limited game action. The Yankees are set to turn him loose this year and my hunch is that includes a Spring Training invite. He’ll probably be among the first cuts, but I think he’ll be there.

My Prediction: King, Nelson, Schmidt, Raynel Espinal, Danny Farquhar, Drew Hutchison, Brady Lail, one TBD spot. The Yankees reportedly want a swingman/sixth starter type to replace Sonny Gray, hence that TBD spot. Maybe they wind up getting a lefty instead. I’ll play the odds and predict a righty. Anyway, Farquhar and Hutchison signed minor league deals and have big league time, so they’ll be in camp. In fact, the Yankees announced Hutchison’s deal includes a spring invite, so there you go.

Lail’s been a non-roster guy each of the last three years — the Yankees seem to like him despite never calling him up or protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft — and I see no reason to think this spring will be any different. Espinal was a non-roster guy last year and he had a strong Triple-A season, so I think he’s back as well. He’s a potential inventory arm, someone who comes up in an emergency, and candidates for an emergency call-up usually get a Spring Training invite.

I’m going with Nelson over Stephan and Whitlock because, well, I’m kinda guessing here. I think at least one of those three gets a non-roster invite, and Nelson is both the oldest and has been in the system the longest, so I think it’ll be him. If the Yankees bring any other righties to big league camp, I think it’s more likely it’ll be a random Triple-A reliever like Cale Coshow or J.P. Feyereisen than Stephan or Whitlock. Between Hutchison, King, Nelson, and Schmidt, that is plenty of extra multi-inning pitchers.

Left-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, James Paxton, CC Sabathia, Stephen Tarpley)

Diehl. (Mark LoMoglio/Tampa Tarpons)

Montgomery is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and we won’t see him in Grapefruit League games. We might not even see him throw bullpens in Spring Training. Montgomery had his elbow rebuild in June and pitchers usually don’t get back up on a mound until 8-10 months into the rehab process. He’ll just be getting to that point as Spring Training begins, which means little to no action. A bummer, but not a surprise.

The Yankees do not have any notable left-handed pitching prospects now that Justus Sheffield (and Josh Rogers) has been traded. Their best lefty pitching prospect is, uh, Nestor Cortes? Phil Diehl? Not great. Diehl had a statistically excellent 2018 season (2.51 ERA and 2.24 FIP with 36.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks) and the Yankees had him throw simulated at-bats to Judge late in the season, when Judge was coming back from his wrist injury, which tells us the Yankees trust Diehl’s control. Otherwise they wouldn’t have let him pitch to the most valuable player in the organization and risk his wrist getting hit again. Maybe they’ll bring him to camp? Dunno.

My Prediction: Cortes, Diehl, Rex Brothers, Danny Coulombe. Brothers and Coulombe are on minor league contracts and both have quite a bit of big league time, so we know they’ll be in camp. Cortes was in big league camp with the Orioles as a Rule 5 Draft pick last spring — he even made their Opening Day roster — and he had yet another statistically excellent season last year. I think that’s enough to get him to Spring Training this year. Diehl is the token extra lefty reliever.

* * *

Alright, so putting that all together, we come away with 22 potential non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Those 22 players:

  • Catchers (4): Diaz, Lavarnway, Lidge, Sands or a TBD catcher
  • Infielders (2): Holder, Urshela
  • Outfielders (4): Amburgey, Burns, Florial, Lipka
  • Righties (8): Espinal, Farquhar, Hutchison, King, Lail, Nelson, Schmidt, TBD
  • Lefties (4): Brothers, Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl

On one hand, the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp last year, 23 the year before that, and 26 in each of the two years before that. Twenty-two this year would be a typical number of non-roster players. On the other hand, the Yankees have at least three (Ellsbury, Heller, Montgomery) and possibly four (Sanchez) 40-man roster players who will be either restricted or completely off-limits in Spring Training. The Yankees might carry more non-roster players than usual to cover for the rehabbing 40-man roster guys.

The farm system isn’t as strong or as deep as it was a few years ago, mostly because the Yankees have graduated so many of their top prospects to the big leagues. Remember when we all couldn’t wait to see Torres or Judge or Severino in camp as non-roster guys? Now they’re no doubt big leaguers. Florial and King will be the obvious “must see” prospects on this year’s non-roster list and, if they get invited, Nelson and Schmidt will be worth watching as well. Also, bet on there being some surprise non-roster invitees this spring. There are always a few.

Prospect Profile: Nick Nelson

by

(@MiLB)

Nick Nelson | RHP

Background
Nelson grew up on Florida’s panhandle in Panama City. The just turned 23-year-old starred at Rutherford High School and the Giants selected him in the 31st round (928th overall) of the 2014 draft, though Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank him among the top 500 players in the draft class. Nelson did not sign with San Francisco and instead headed to Gulf Coast State College, a two-year school, in his hometown.

As a freshman with the Commodores Nelson made six starts and one relief appearance, throwing 24.1 innings with a 2.96 ERA and a 22/11 K/BB. He also hit .339/.369/.540 with seven homers in 207 plate appearances as the team’s regular first baseman. Despite his two-way success, Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Nelson among the top 500 prospects for the 2015 draft following his freshman year, and he went undrafted.

Nelson was a workhorse on both sides of the ball as a sophomore, leading the team in innings (by 19.1) and falling one short of the team lead in plate appearances. He had a 4.48 ERA with a 99/38 K/BB in 90.1 innings and hit .295/.337/.504 with a team-leading 12 homers in 246 plate appearances. Nelson was committed to the University of Florida for his junior season. He would’ve remained a two-way player with the Gators.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Nelson as the 325th best prospect in the 2016 draft class and the Yankees selected him in the fourth round, with the 128th overall pick. Despite that commitment to Florida, the Yankees were able to sign Nelson to a below-slot $350,000 bonus. Slot money for the 128th selection was $455,400. The bonus pool savings were redirected to first rounder Blake Rutherford.

Pro Career
Nelson was sent directly to the rookie Pulaski Yankees after signing, where he had a 3.38 ERA (5.82 FIP) with more walks (22) than strikeouts (19) in 21.1 innings. Because he faced exactly 100 batters, it works out to a neat 22.0% walk rate and a 19.0% strikeout rate. Nelson spent the entire 2017 season with Low-A Charleston. He threw 100.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA (3.82 FIP) to go with a good strikeout rate (24.3%) and a not-so-good walk rate (11.1%).

The Yankees held Nelson back in Charleston to begin the 2018 season and he had a 3.65 ERA (2.25 FIP) with 34.7% strikeouts and 6.9% walks in five starts and 24.2 innings before being bumped up to High-A Tampa. With Tampa, Nelson threw 88.1 innings with a 3.36 ERA (3.12 FIP) and a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 12.5% walk rate. He also made three spot starts with Double-A Trenton (six runs in 8.2 innings). All told, Nelson had a 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) with 27.5% strikeouts and 12.1% walks in 121.2 innings in 2018. He also participated in Instructional League after the season.

Scouting Report
Nelson is not the biggest guy on the mound (6-foot-1 and 195 lbs.) and, at Gulf Coast State, he was mostly 90-92 mph with his fastball. Now that he’s spent two years pitching full-time and working with the Yankees’ velocity gurus, he sits 94-96 mph and tops out at 98 mph. His fastball has some sink on it too, though his 46.9% ground ball rate this past season is nothing to write home about it.

Nelson’s bread-and-butter is a hammer low-80s curveball that is his primary source of swings and misses. He’s still working to develop a changeup — at times it’ll look like a true swing-and-miss pitch — and this past season the Yankees had him tinker with a slider, which is still rudimentary. For all intents and purposes, Nelson is a fastball/curveball guy who is trying to develop a reliable third pitch.

Despite a fairly simple delivery he repeats well enough, Nelson does struggle to throw strikes. He has below-average control and well-below-average command. Nelson started throughout college and he’s been a starter his entire pro career thus far, though it’s tough to see him remaining in that role given his lack of a reliable third pitch and his inconsistent strike-throwing ability. Add in a no nonsense bulldog mentality and Nelson sure seems destined for the bullpen at some point.

2019 Outlook
It seems to me Nelson is ticketed for Double-A Trenton to begin next year. He had a successful stint with High-A Tampa this past season and the Yankees have more starters than rotation spots for High-A Tampa, so the numbers crunch plays a role here as well. Nelson will be Rule 5 Draft eligible next offseason and my guess is the Yankees will give him at least one more year as a starter, maybe two, to see whether he figures out a third pitch and/or how to throw the ball over the plate consistently. There’s still an entire season to play out, but, right now, I expect the Yankees to add Nelson to the 40-man roster next winter to remove him from the Rule 5 Draft eligibility pool.

My Take
I’m a Nick Nelson fan. I don’t think there’s much hope for him to remain a starter long-term — that’ll take a big and sudden improvement in his changeup and/or control and how often does that happen? — but the fastball/curveball combination is legit and I think he’ll be able to out-stuff hitters as a one-inning air-it-out reliever. Give him another season to start because things might click. If the Yankees move Nelson into the bullpen though, he could become a big league option in a hurry.

A New Era in the Farm System [2018 Season Review]

by

Florial. (Presswire)

It has been a crazy few years in the farm system. The Yankees had a middle of the pack system on Opening Day 2016. By the end of that season it was arguably the best farm system in the game, mostly because of the team’s trade deadline sell-off, but also because several guys who were already in the system broke out. Since the end of the 2016 season, that strong farm system has provided a steady pipeline of talent to the Bronx.

The farm system now is not what the farm system was then because of graduations and trades (and injuries and poor performances), which is what we all expected. If you have great prospects, you want them to become great big leaguers and leave the farm system behind. That is exactly what’s happened for the Yankees. The system is back to being middle of the pack now, maybe even worse, and for all the right reasons. Let’s review the year that was down in the minors.

The Graduates

The last two seasons (two and a half, really) have been incredible in terms of graduating prospects from the farm system to the big leagues. Gary Sanchez arrived in 2016. Last year it was Aaron Judge, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green. This season the Yankees graduated 3B Miguel Andujar (season review) and IF Gleyber Torres (season review) to the big leagues, and they finished second and third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, respectively. They came into the season as the top two position player prospects in the farm system.

Also graduating to MLB this year were RHP Jonathan Holder (season review), RHP Domingo German (season review), and IF Tyler Wade (season review). Wade actually exhausted his rookie eligibility last season through service time, but it wasn’t until this year that he exceeded the 130 at-bat rookie limit. Four of my preseason top 30 Yankees prospects joined the Yankees and exhausted their rookie eligibility this season. (Five of the top ten and six of the top 13 on my 2017 list have since graduated to the Yankees.) As a result, the Yankees had the fourth highest rookie WAR in baseball in 2018.

The New Top Prospect

Up until two and a half weeks ago, the Yankees’ top prospect was LHP Justus Sheffield (season review), who pitched well with Triple-A Scranton this season and struggled during his brief MLB cameo. The Yankees cashed him in as a trade chip last month to land James Paxton, who is essentially what we all hoped Sheffield would one day become. Sheffield still has work to do with his command and that made it unlikely he would contribute to the Yankees as a starter in a significant way in 2019. It also made it easier for the win now Yankees to trade him.

With Sheffield traded the new top prospect in the organization is OF Estevan Florial and almost by default too. All those graduations and trades the last two years have thinned the farm system considerably. That is the cost of doing business. You can either have a great farm system or a great big league team. Having both at the same time is damn near impossible nowadays with the draft and international free agency spending restrictions. I will happily live with a thinned out farm system while the Yankees field a 100-win team in the Bronx.

Anyway, Florial had a difficult season in 2018. He started the year with High-A Tampa, hit .246/.353/.343 (107 wRC+) with one home run in his first 36 games, then went down with wrist surgery. Hamate bone removal sidelined him for seven weeks. Florial wrecked the rookie Gulf Coast League during his rehab assignment (.548/.600/1.000 in nine games), then managed a .263/.355/.375 (112 wRC+) line with two homers in his final 39 games with Tampa. Florial hit a weak .178/.294/.260 in 21 Arizona Fall League games after the season.

The bad news? Well, pretty much all of it. Florial needed wrist surgery and he didn’t perform all that well this season, though it is entirely possible (if not likely) the wrist injury contributed to that. He could’ve been (likely was) playing hurt before surgery, and it usually takes some time to get back to normal after wrist surgery, so yeah. The good news? Florial’s contact numbers improved:

  • 2017 in Low-A: 31.9% strikeouts and 15.2% swings and misses
  • 2018 in High-A: 25.7% strikeouts and 13.1% swings and misses

Florial also improved his walk rate as well, going from 10.5% walks in 2017 to 13.0% walks in 2018, but that doesn’t do much for me. Minor league walk rates are fickle, especially in Single-A ball, where most pitchers are control-challenged. Moving up a level and shaving more than six percentage points off your strikeout rate is not nothing though. Contact is Florial’s biggest weakness — he is a four-tool player and the one tool he lacks is the hit tool, and that is a tantalizing profile with a high bust rate — and hopefully those contact gains this year are real.

The Breakout Prospects

King. (Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)

It was a good year for pitching prospects in the farm system. The Yankees don’t have a future ace in the system — there are only a handful of those guys in the minors — but they are loaded with potential starters and depth arms, among them RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (season review). Many of those pitching prospects took a step forward this season and cemented themselves as legitimate big league prospects who may not be more than a year or two away from the show.

Statistically, the biggest breakout prospect in the system this year was RHP Mike King, who came over from the Marlins in last winter’s Caleb Smith/Garrett Cooper roster shuffle trade. King rose three levels this season and finished the year with Triple-A Scranton, posting a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in a whopping 161.1 innings. King is a fastball command guy whose secondary stuff is good but not great, so he’s a stats before scouting report prospect. Still, have that much success and reach Triple-A, and you’re on the big league radar.

To me, the biggest breakout prospect in the farm system this year was RHP Deivi Garcia. The 19-year-old came into the season as a classic live arm/bad control prospect and suddenly he started throwing strikes. In 14 starts and 74 innings, mostly in Single-A but also one Double-A spot start, Garcia pitched to a 2.55 ERA (2.60 FIP) with 35.5% strikeouts and 6.8% walks. That is the fifth highest strikeout rate and fourth highest K-BB% rate among the 902 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings in the minors this year, and the best marks among teenagers.

Garcia is not the biggest guy at 5-foot-10 and 163 lbs., though he still has room to grow, and even if he can’t handle a starter’s workload long-term, his fastball/curveball combination is plenty good enough for the bullpen. He’s a high spin rate guy — the curveball has reportedly been clocked at 3,000+ rpm and that is super duper elite — and his changeup is better than you’d think. Garcia figuring out how to throw strikes this season is really exciting. This was his breakout year in the organization. Next season might be his breakout year on the global prospect map.

One of my favorite prospects in the system is RHP Roansy Contreras, a just turned 19-year-old kid who more than held his own when pushed to Low-A Charleston late in the season. Contreras had a 2.42 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 24.0% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 12 starts and 63.1 innings this season, mostly with the RiverDogs but also some with Short Season Staten Island. A teenager with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and command and pitching know-how deserves more prospect love. Roansy has a chance to be awfully good.

RHP Trevor Stephan and RHP Garrett Whitlock, two 2017 draftees, carved up Single-A hitters this summer and reached Double-A. Stephan had a 3.69 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 7.3% walks in 124.1 total innings this year. He’s a stuff guy with mid-90s gas and a hard slider. Whitlock is more of a pitchability guy with four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, changeup). He had a 1.86 ERA (3.01 FIP) with 24.9% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 120.2 innings this year. King and Whitlock had the second lowest and fourth lowest ERAs, respectively, among the 510 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in the minors this year.

Thanks to some mechanical tweaks IF Brandon Wagner swatted 21 home runs this season after hitting 19 total from 2015-17. His ground ball rates the last four years: 51.4%, 46.5%, 45.5%, 35.6%. Hmmm. Wagner was far better with High-A Tampa (.270/.376/.510 and 154 wRC+) than Double-A Trenton (.262/.290/.346 and 116 wRC+) this year, but he’s a left-handed hitter with some thump who can play first, third, and a little second. The Yankees rolled the dice and left him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft, which I don’t think is a big deal. Even if he gets picked, he’ll probably come back. I’m curious to see whether the power and air ball tendencies stick this year.

The International Arrivals

The Yankees spent a lot of money during the 2017-18 international signing period — they had some cash to spend after getting spurned by Shohei Ohtani — and they brought many of those 2017-18 international signees stateside this past season. Usually these kids spend a year cutting their teeth in the Dominican Summer League, even the high-profile ones, but not this year. The Yankees had many of them make their pro debuts in the rookie Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. That’s quite a jump.

OF Everson Pereira received a $1.5M bonus last July and the Yankees sent him right to Rookie Pulaski, where he hit .263/.322/.389 (88 wRC+) with three homers and a 32.8% strikeout rate in 41 games. The numbers are not good, obviously, but he was essentially a high school junior playing against college kids fresh out of the draft. “He doesn’t have any 70- or 80-grade tools, but some scouts were confident enough to put future plus grades on his hit, run and raw power already. They also saw a (plus) defender in center field,” said a recent Baseball America scouting report. Periera may be a year way from top 100 prospect status.

The Yankees gave OF Antonio Cabello a $1.35M bonus with their leftover Ohtani money and they immediately moved him from catcher to center field. He’s a very good runner and a good athlete, and he was rough behind the plate defensively, so it made sense to move him to center. He can be an asset out there and the bat will be ready long before his defense at catcher. Cabello hit .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) with five homers, a 20.8% strikeout rate, and a 14.8% walk rate in 46 GCL games, and his hitting acumen has drawn Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto comparisons. Huh. Cabello dislocated his non-throwing shoulder diving for a ball late in the season and needed surgery, but he’s expected back early next year. Bummer, but the tools are incredibly exciting.

OF Raimfer Salinas received $1.85M in leftover Ohtani money last year and he’s more tooled up than Cabello. He’s a standout defensive center fielder with excellent bat speed and power potential from the right side. Salinas played only eleven GCL games this year because he damaged a finger ligament on a slide, but he’ll be ready to go next year. 2B Ezequiel Duran signed for a mere $10,000 last July and he stunk with Pulaski this year, hitting .201/.251/.311 (48 wRC+) with a 27.7% strikeout rate in 53 games, but he’s an exit velocity monster who’s been praised for his innate hitting ability. Duran wouldn’t be the first guy to figure it out after a poor pro debut.

OF Anthony Garcia ($500,000 bonus) is built like a tank (6-foot-5 and 204 lbs.) and he led the GCL with ten homers in only 44 games this summer. He also struck out in 40.6% (!) of his plate appearances, but a switch-hitter with this kind of power? That’s worth a $500,000 roll of the dice all day, every day. SS Roberto Chirinos ($900,000) is a slick-fielding shortstop with good bat-to-ball skills. He got the bat knocked out of his hands a bit in the GCL though (.238/.289/.337 and 79 wRC+). Pereira and Salinas are 17. Cabello, Garcia, and Chirinos all recently turned 18. Duran is 19. These dudes are the next wave of top prospects, especially Pereira, Cabello, and Salinas.

The Trade Chips

Rogers. (Lindsey Wasson/Getty)

The Yankees had an active trade deadline this year and, more recently, they used Sheffield as the headliner in the Paxton trade. Also sent to Seattle were RHP Erik Swanson and OF Dom Thompson-Williams. Swanson had a 3.86 ERA (3.64 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in 72.1 Triple-A innings this year and he has a classic back-end starter profile as a fastball/slider/changeup guy. Thompson-Williams became a launch angle guy this year and hit .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with 22 homers in 100 Single-A games. He hit six homers from 2016-17. Swanson’s a nice depth arm. I’m curious to see how the launch angle thing works for Thompson-Williams in Double-A this year. Both guys are nice prospects who were expendable to the Yankees.

At the actual trade deadline, the Yankees shipped three pitching prospects to the Orioles for Zach Britton: RHP Cody Carroll, LHP Josh Rogers, and RHP Dillon Tate (season reviews). Tate is easily the best prospect of the three and he still has work to do to refine his command. He had a 3.38 ERA (3.78 FIP) before the trade and a 5.75 ERA (4.14 FIP) after the trade, all in the Double-A Eastern League. Being a pitcher in need of development in the Orioles system is a bad place to be. Poor Dillon. OF Billy McKinney (season review) was sent to the Blue Jays in the J.A. Happ trade along with Brandon Drury. He hit .226/.299/.495 (120 wRC+) with Triple-A Scranton before the trade while repeating the level. Eh.

In late August the Yankees used IF Abi Avelino and RHP Juan De Paula to get Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. Avelino bounced between Double-A and Triple-A for the second straight season and hit .287/.333/.446 (117 wRC+) with 15 homers in 123 games before the trade, which represents the best season of his career. Avelino is a classic utility type who went 3-for-11 (.273) as a September call-up with San Francisco. De Paula had a 1.71 ERA (3.46 FIP) with 23.4% strikeouts in 47.1 innings before the trade. He repeated Short Season Staten Island as a 21-year-old, which was kinda weird to me. I get the feeling the Yankees were down on the kid, which probably led to the trade.

The Yankees turned longtime organizational arm LHP Caleb Frare into international bonus money in a trade with the White Sox in July. The 25-year-old had a 0.81 ERA (2.23 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 8.6% walks in 44.2 relief innings, almost all at Double-A before the trade, then he struck out nine in seven innings as a September call-up with Chicago. Good for him. Oft-injured RHP Drew Finley went to the Dodgers for Tim Locastro a few weeks ago. Finley’s father works in Los Angeles’ front office, so the trade is something of a homecoming for him.

Aside from Tate, the best prospect the Yankees traded at the deadline this year is little known RHP Luis Rijo. He went to the Twins in the Lance Lynn trade with Tyler Austin. The 20-year-old had a 2.77 ERA (2.50 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 39 innings before the trade and a 1.27 ERA (3.85 FIP) with 20.5% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in 21.1 innings after the trade, all in short season leagues. Rijo is a fastball/curveball/changeup guy and Baseball America recently said “his tremendous feel for locating the baseball should give him a chance to become a backend starter.” Having a multitude of Luis Rijos in the system to use as trade deadline fodder is an underrated strength of the farm system. The Yankees are loaded with these guys.

The Busted Prospects

“Busted” is probably too harsh here, but, as always, several prospects in the system had tough 2018 seasons. There are always going to be injuries and poor performances. That’s baseball. RHP Freicer Perez struggled in six starts with High-A Tampa (21 runs and 19 walks in 25 innings) before having season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder. The good news is his rotator cuff and labrum (and capsule) were not damaged. The bad news is 2018 was a lost season for Perez, one of the better pitching prospects in the system.

RHP Albert Abreu, the best right-handed pitching prospect in the system coming into the season, missed more time with elbow problems and posted a 5.20 ERA (4.75 FIP) with 22.7% strikeouts and 9.8% walks in 72.2 innings at mostly High-A. Abreu has really good stuff — it’s an upper-90s fastball with a knockout curveball — but he’s thrown only 126 innings in two years since coming over in the Brian McCann trade, and we’ve yet to see him truly dominant for an extended period of time. Abreu has ability but he’s just kinda spinning his wheels right now.

RHP Luis Medina stayed healthy all season but lordy was it bad. The 19-year-old threw 36 innings with Rookie Pulaski and pitched to a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) with 25.5% strikeouts and 25.0% walks. That is 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. Yuuup. Medina’s stuff is electric — it’s a Dellin Betances caliber fastball and breaking ball — and he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization. But the poor kid has no idea where the ball is going right now. Like Dellin, he’s gonna be a long-term project.

The two best middle infield prospects in the organization, SS Thairo Estrada and SS Kyle Holder, had brutal seasons. Estrada got shot during a robbery in January and also battled wrist and back trouble during the season. He was limited to 18 regular season games and had the bullet removed from his hip in June. Thairo did heal up in time to play in the Arizona Fall League. Holder fractured a vertebrae in Spring Training and missed two months, and then missed three weeks with a concussion later in the season. He also went home for two weeks at midseason after his brother passed away. Holder played 48 games this year.

3B Dermis Garcia continued to flash big power (15 homers in 88 Low-A games) and big swing-and-miss issues (30.6% strikeouts), and the Yankees had him throw some bullpen sessions to see how he looked on the mound. Dermis never did appear in a game as a pitcher though. SS Hoy Jun Park had a much better season that you may realize — he hit .258/.387/.349 (122 wRC+) with 18 steals and nearly as many walks (16.2%) as strikeouts (16.4%) in 103 High-A games — but the Yankees are still waiting for the $1.2M bonus kid to take that big step forward developmentally.

RHP Chance Adams (season review) underwhelmed while repeating Triple-A (4.78 ERA and 4.87 FIP) and is at something of a career crossroads. Early next season might be his last chance to prove he can hack it as a starter. The Yankees have kept him at arm’s length thus far — his lone big league start was an emergency spot start when Happ went down with hand, foot, and mouth disease. RHP Domingo Acevedo (season review) again battled injuries and was limited to 69.1 innings.

Other Notable Prospects

Almost exactly one year to the day after being selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, RHP Clarke Schmidt completed his Tommy John surgery rehab and made his pro debut. He managed a 3.09 ERA (2.61 FIP) with 33.0% strikeouts and 6.6% walks in 23.1 closely monitored innings in his return, and by all accounts his stuff looked pretty good. Like his pre-Tommy John surgery stuff, basically. Schmidt’s season came to an end in late August with what has been reported as a non-arm injury. Not sure what’s going on there.

RHP Matt Sauer, last year’s second round pick, had a weird season with Short Season Staten Island, statistically. He threw more strikes than I expected (6.4% walks) and missed way fewer bats than I expected (15.9% strikeouts and 7.1% swings and misses). The Yankees helped Sauer improve his delivery and tempo and it’s possible this year’s statistical weirdness can be attributed to him adjusting to his new mechanics. I dunno. We’ll see what happens next year.

RHP Nick Green is one of my favorite prospects in the system. I find him fascinating. He has this funky cutter/sinker hybrid fastball that helped him lead the minors with a 66.4% ground ball rate (min. 130 IP) by nearly five percentage points this season. Green doesn’t have much else to work with aside from the, uh, cut-sinker (?), but if you’re only going to have one pitch, a dominant ground ball (cut-)sinker is a good pitch to have. Green threw 132.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (4.28 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.1% walks this season, with most of that coming with High-A Tampa.

Easy to overlook in the pitching ranks is RHP Nick Nelson, who quietly sits in the mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball and features a hammer power curveball. This season he threw 121.1 innings, mostly at High-A Tampa, with a 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) and high walk (12.1%) and strikeout (27.5%) rates. Nelson had the 37th most strikeouts (144) and also the 27th most walks (63) in the minors this year. I’m not sure the control or third pitch will ever be there for him to start long-term. I sure am interested to see what Nelson can do in short one-inning relief bursts though.

OF Isiah Gilliam might belong in the “Busted Prospects” section — again, “busted” may be too harsh — after hitting .256/.313/.397 (103 wRC+) with 13 homers in 125 High-A games this year. He had a 137 wRC+ with 21.7% strikeouts and 10.8% walks in Low-A last season. This season it was a 103 wRC+ with 29.0% strikeouts and 6.9% walks in High-A. SS Diego Castillo didn’t hit much with High-A Tampa (.260/.307/.324 and 83 wRC+) but he makes a ton of contact (9.1% strikeouts and 6.1% swings and misses) and can play the hell out of shortstop. I hope the bat catches up to the glove soon.

RHP Luis Gil and RHP Juan Then are on opposite ends of the pitching prospect spectrum in terms of style. Gil is a straight grip it and rip it guy who touched 101 mph this season and registers strong spin rates on his curveball. The 20-year-old struck out 68 batters in 46 short season innings this year. He also walked 31. Then, 18, already has three good pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and a plan on the mound. The kid is 6-foot-1 and 155 lbs. right now and the Yankees are hoping his low-90s heater becomes a mid-to-upper-90s heater as he matures. Then had a 2.70 ERA (3.22 FIP) with 21.5% strikeouts and 5.6% walks in 50 GCL innings in 2018.

RHP Stephen Tarpley (season review) led the minors with a 68.1% ground ball rate (min. 65 IP) this season and earned himself both a September call-up and a spot on the ALDS roster. RHP Joe Harvey was untouchable as Triple-A Scranton’s closer this year, pitching to a 1.66 ERA (2.49 FIP) with 28.5% strikeouts and 9.8% walks in 54.1 innings for the RailRiders. The Yankees added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft last month. We’re going to see these two dudes in the big league bullpen next year, even if they’re only shuttle guys.

The 2018 Draft

Last season’s 91-71 record gave the Yankees the 23rd overall pick in the 2018 draft, which they used on C Anthony Seigler (prospect profile). He’s the best prospect the Yankees drafted this year (duh) followed by second rounder C Josh Breaux (prospect profile) and fourth rounder RHP Frank German (prospect profile). Here are my Day One, Day Two, and Day Three draft recaps.

Among the late round picks, RHP Rodney Hutchison (sixth round) created some buzz right before the draft because his fastball ticked up and he showed an improved slider. He had a 1.97 ERA (3.02 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.4%), walk (4.7%), and ground ball (64.4%) rates in 32 innings with Short Season Staten Island in his pro debut. RHP Tanner Myatt (11th round) opened some eyes with his 97-99 mph heater and hard slider after turning pro. He struck out 22 in 18.1 mostly rookie ball innings.

While the high picks like Seigler and Breaux get all the attention and understandably so — my money is on Seigler being the consensus No. 1 prospect in the system at this time next year — the late rounds are where the Yankees have built their farm system depth. Guys like Rogers (11th), Whitlock (18th round), and Carroll (22nd round) were all unheralded Day Three picks in recent years who developed into solid prospects and, in Rogers’ and Carroll’s case, trade chips. A year from now we might be talking about Hutchison and Myatt as the next late round success stories.

The Best of the Rest

The Yankees have more minor leaguers under contract that any other team. That doesn’t necessarily mean they have more prospects. It just means they have more minor leaguers. As J.J. Cooper explained in August, the Yankees have nine minor league affiliates and thus can have roughly 340 players under contract. Most other organizations only have six or seven minor league affiliates, and can carry around 290 contracts. Those extra 50 (!) roster spots mean the Yankees have more innings and at-bats to play with, and more spots for lottery tickets.

Although the farm system isn’t nearly as robust now as it was a year or two ago, the Yankees do still have a pretty deep system, especially in arms. Here are the last few notables worth mentioning as part of our farm system review:

  • OF Trey Amburgey: Righty hitter and thrower has some pop and authored an underwhelming .258/.300/.418 (97 wRC+) line with Double-A Trenton this year.
  • SS Oswaldo Cabrera: The tools are all there but the production is not. Cabrera hit .229/.273/.320 (70 wRC+) with a 12.5% strikeout rate with Low-A Charleston this year.
  • RHP Rony Garcia: Cutter specialist reached High-A at age 20 this year and posted solid strikeout (21.0%) and walk (5.5%) rates in 119 innings. Deivi pulled away as the system’s best Garcia though.
  • RHP Yoendrys Gomez: Mid-90s fastball and a rainbow curveball produced a 2.08 ERA (3.57 FIP) and 25.8% strikeouts in 47.2 rookie ball innings this summer. Someone to watch.
  • RHP Nolan Martinez: Finally stayed healthy and threw 61.2 innings with 3.36 ERA (4.19 FIP) this year. He threw 20.2 innings total from 2016-17. Next year will be a big one.
  • OF Pablo Olivares: Personal favorite hit .322/.391/.442 (142 wRC+) in 70 Single-A games before an unknown injury ended his season in July. That’s too bad.
  • RHP Glenn Otto: Last year’s fifth rounder showed a dynamite fastball/curveball combination in his two starts before needing season-ending surgery to treat a blood clot in his shoulder.
  • OF Alex Palma: Built on last year’s breakout with a .299/.348/.459 (132 wRC+) line in 52 High-A games. He suffered a season-ending injury in an outfield collision in July.

I’m looking forward to full seasons of Gomez and Martinez next year and I want to see how Olivares, Otto, and Palma rebound from their injuries. Especially Otto and especially especially Olivares. He’s not a star prospect like the stat line would lead you to believe, but he can do everything well. Just a solid all-around ballplayer. Had he not gotten hurt, the 20-year-old Olivares might’ve finished the season in Double-A and been added to the 40-man roster after the season. Instead, the Yankees are gambling no team will take an injured Single-A outfielder in the Rule 5 Draft.

What’s Next?

As was the case last year, the farm system now is worse than it was in March, and for good reason. The Yankees graduated two high-end prospects to the big leagues in Torres and Andujar, and they used several others in trades, most notably Sheffield and Tate. If the farm system is going to take a hit, you want it to take a hit because guys are graduating and being traded for MLB help, and that’s what happened with the Yankees.

Barring a fire sale — the Yankees might get prospects for Sonny Gray but otherwise they aren’t selling veterans anytime soon — it is awfully tough for the Yankees to build a farm system now. They have back of the first round draft picks (30th overall in 2019) and the draft and international spending restrictions level the playing field. The Yankees added some very exciting international kids (Pereira, Cabello) and new draftees (Seigler) to the system this year. It’ll take a year or two before they develop into foundational prospects, however. Fortunately the farm system has already done its part strengthening the MLB team.

The Year Ahead In the Farm System [2018 Season Preview]

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Florial. (Presswire)

A year ago at this time we were all still kinda in awe of what Brian Cashman and the Yankees were able to accomplish in a relatively short period of time. Between trades and development, the Yankees built one of the top farm systems in the game, one with high-end prospects and depth. We were still waiting to see whether that rebuilt farm system translated to success on the field though.

Fast forward to this spring, and the Yankees are coming off an ALCS appearance thanks largely to those prospects. Players like Aaron Judge, Chad Green, and Jordan Montgomery graduated to the big leagues last year and became key contributors. Others like Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Blake Rutherford were used as trade chips to land impact big leaguers with multiple years of control.

The Yankees were able to turn that highly regarded farm system into an enviable big league core, and, best of all, the farm system still ranks among the best in baseball. Look where the various scouting publications ranked the system this spring:

That is the good stuff. According to Baseball America, the Dodgers have the second best farm system among 2017 postseason teams. They ranked their system eighth. The Yankees have a top prospect pipeline on par with hard-tankers like the Padres and Braves and White Sox, except the Yankees are not tanking. They contended last year and there is every reason to believe they’ll contend again this year. Let’s preview the year ahead in the minors.

Top Prospects Who Could Help In 2018

Before the Brandon Drury trade and Neil Walker signing, the Yankees brought three top prospect infielders to Spring Training and ostensibly gave them a chance to win the big league second and third base openings. IF Tyler Wade was able to win a big league job anyway. 3B Miguel Andujar and IF Gleyber Torres will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton for the time being. They’ll be up soon enough. Here’s our season preview for Andujar, Torres, and Wade.

Aside from the kid infielders, the top prospect most likely to help the Yankees this summer is RHP Chance Adams, a divisive prospect who doesn’t necessarily receive the greatest reviews from scouts despite stellar minor league numbers. Adams had another strong minor league season last year, throwing 150.1 innings with 2.45 ERA (3.70 FIP) at Double-A and Triple-A. Spring Training didn’t go so well (4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 HR), but whatever, it happens.

Larry Rothschild recently told Brendan Kuty that Adams’ arm strength wasn’t quite where the Yankees hoped it would be this spring, and hopefully that’s just a “he threw by far the most innings of his career last year and is taking a little longer to get to full strength than expected” thing and not a “he’s out of shape” or “he’s hiding an injury” thing. “He has a pretty good track record, so we’re not too concerned,” said minor league pitching coordinator Danny Borrell to Kuty.

Either way, Adams will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton, and it stands to reason he will be among the top call-up options when a starter is needed. Domingo German and Luis Cessa have big league time and are on the 40-man roster, but if Adams performs and gets his arm strength to where it needs to be, the Yankees will give him a shot. They’ll go with whoever they believe gives them the best chance to win, and if they think it’s Adams, he’ll get the call.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help In 2018

Sheffield. (Presswire)

Never say never, but it seems likely to me LHP Justus Sheffield, the top pitching prospect in the system, will spend the year in the minors after being limited to 98 innings by an oblique injury last season. Sheffield showed the goods in Spring Training (mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider) and also showed the warts (lack of command) as well. Still, as a power southpaw with three pitches (he also has a pretty good changeup), Sheffield is rightfully considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. If he helps the Yankees at all in 2018, it’ll be late in the season.

OF Estevan Florial, who some rank as the second best prospect in the system behind Gleyber, almost certainly will not reach the big leagues this season. Florial turned 20 in November and he has played only 19 games at High-A. More High-A time and a midseason promotion to Double-A is in the cards this year. Maybe a late-season stint at Triple-A. Maybe. Florial hit .219/.324/.406 this spring and impressed everyone with his athleticism and raw tools. From Bryan Hoch:

“He’s one of those guys that I’m really excited to see these first couple of weeks, because he’s going to get some opportunities to play,” (Aaron) Boone said. “He’s going to log some at-bats. We just want to get him as comfortable as possible. When we see him do that, even though that [triple] was the first one, it’s not a surprise to us. The talent is real.”

As with Sheffield (command), Florial has a flaw in his game that keeps him from being a truly elite prospect. He has problems making contact. His 31.1% strikeout rate last season was 29th highest among the 743 minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances, and Florial has the most trouble with non-fastballs. Double-A caliber arms gave him fits in the Arizona Fall League. Florial didn’t play a ton of baseball growing up and the Yankees hope he’ll make more contact as he gains experience. We’ll keep track of that in the Prospect Watch this year.

In RHP Dillon Tate, the Yankees have a former high draft pick (fourth overall in 2015) who didn’t quite take to some mechanical issues the Rangers tried to implement, but has since rebuilt prospect stock after being told by the Yankees to go back to whatever worked in college. He was slowed by a shoulder issue last year but he did reach Double-A by the end of the season, so I guess that makes him a call-up candidate this year. I think there might be a few too many names ahead of him on the depth chart. The Yankees are having Tate work on a two-seam fastball at the moment, a pitch that could be a real difference-maker for him.

RHP Albert Abreu and RHP Freicer Perez are two ultra-talented Single-A kids who we’re not going to see this year. (Abreu has been slowed by an appendectomy and will probably start the season on the disabled list anyway.) Perez really broke out last year — he had a 2.12 ERA (3.19 FIP) with 25.3% strikeouts in his final 18 starts and 101.2 innings last summer — and is poised to be the next great Yankees pitching prospect. Abreu battled injury problems last year but has a golden arm. These two are a Big Deal now and they’ll be a Very Big Deal next spring.

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help In 2018

Top prospects get all the attention and understandably so, but turning secondary prospects into regulars is often what separates good teams from great teams. Look what Green and Montgomery did for the Yankees last year. They were nowhere near any top prospect lists, yet both played very important roles for a postseason team.

This season the Yankees have several depth pitching prospects who figure to see MLB time, most notably RHP Domingo German, the presumed sixth starter at the moment. RHP Gio Gallegos, RHP Ben Heller, and RHP Jonathan Holder are all going to get bullpen time at some point. You watch. OF/1B Billy McKinney figures to spend the season as an up-and-down bat. They’re all covered in our depth pitchers and depth position players previews.

IF Thairo Estrada was expected to be in the infield mix before the Drury and Walker trades, and while he always felt like a long shot for a big league job, he was removed from the competition before it even started. Estrada was shot in the hip during a botched robbery in January and he did not play at all this spring. The good news is he has resumed working out and other baseball activities, but Thairo won’t start the regular season on time. He’s on the 40-man roster and we could see him later in the season.

Also on the 40-man: RHP Domingo Acevedo. He spent most of last season at Double-A and that makes him a call-up candidate. That said, Acevedo was shut down late last year with a shoulder problem, and his rehab delayed the start of his offseason throwing problem. He spent Spring Training building arm strength and may not be ready to pitch come minor league Opening Day. Still, Acevedo is on the 40-man, he’s a big power arm, and spot duty in the big leagues could be in the cards this season.

Among non-40-man players, RHP Cody Carroll and RHP Brady Lail stand out as potential bullpen options at some point, a la Caleb Smith and Tyler Webb last year. Those “huh, didn’t think we’d see him this year” guys. Carroll is arguably the top bullpen prospect in the system and he can really bring it, with an upper-90s fastball and a good slider. Lail is moving to the bullpen full-time this year and he could sneak on to the MLB roster at some point. There’s always one or two surprise call-ups each year. I’d bet on Lail being one in 2018.

Breakout Candidates

Loaisiga. (Getty)

The Yankees have a deep farm system, especially with lower level arms, and that means they have plenty of breakout candidates. The best of the bunch is RHP Luis Medina, an 18-year-old with a triple digit fastball and two knockout secondary pitches (curveball and changeup). Can he figure out command? Maybe! If he does, Medina will be a no-doubt top 100 prospect at this time next year. Maybe even top 50.

A case can be made RHP Jonathan Loaisiga broke out last season, but he did only throw 32 innings, so I’m including him here. Johnny Lasagna is finally healthy after years of injuries and he goes out to the mound with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and fearlessly pounds the zone. The Yankees like Loaisiga enough that they put him on the 40-man over the winter, and if he stays healthy and pitches a full season, he could rank among the top prospects in the system by the end of the year.

3B Dermis Garcia and OF Canaan Smith are two bat first prospects with power — in Garcia’s case, it’s mammoth power that grades as a true 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale — and plate discipline, so while they have a high bar to clear to be considered top prospects, they have the talent to reach that level, Dermis in particular. SS Hoy Jun Park has tremendous tools and, now that he has a few years of minor league experience under his belt, this could be the season he really starts to take off.

The deep sleepers are RHP Deivi Garcia, a short controlled challenged righty with a hellacious curveball, RHP Juan Then, a just turned 18-year-old righty with pitching know-how well beyond his years, and C Saul Torres, a standout defensive catcher with much more offensive potential than last year’s .174/.230/.309 (45 wRC+) rookie ball batting line would lead you to believe. Also, RHP Clarke Schmidt is due back from Tommy John surgery. He’s not a traditional breakout candidate, but a healthy return will see his prospect stock rise considerably.

Prospects I Am Irrationally Excited About

We all have our personal favorites. Among mine is IF Kyle Holder, a slick-fielding shortstop who might not hit long-term, though he did put up a .355/.400/.458 (154 wRC+) batting line in his final 51 games last season. His glove alone gives him a chance to play in the big leagues. I think there’s enough left-handed contact ability there for him to be a regular on a second division team down the road, and that makes him a likely trade chip for the Yankees.

RHP Trevor Stephen has vicious stuff and may be best suited for a bullpen role long-term. The Yankees are going to use him as a starter for the time being because of course they should. If they ever move him to the bullpen, Stephan could rocket to MLB. Same with RHP Nick Nelson, who didn’t start pitching full-time until turning pro as a fourth round pick in 2016. He has a mid-90s fastball and the type of swing-and-miss curveball that could carry a pitcher a long way.

Other like OF Isiah Gilliam, a switch-hitting outfielder with power, and IF Diego Castillo, a contact-oriented hitter with strong defensive chops, are among my personal favorites. I’m also very interested to see what RHP Matt Sauer does in his first full pro season. He’s probably going to start 2018 back in Extended Spring Training — same with Medina and Then — meaning he won’t pitch in actual games until the short season leagues begin in June, but that’s okay. Still count him among guys I’m looking forward to seeing this year.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Frazier. (Presswire)

Of course they will. When you have a deep farm system, you have a 40-man roster crunch, and that applies to the Yankees again this year. Last year Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects Ian Clarkin and Zack Littell were traded before having to be added to the 40-man roster. Other fringe 40-man roster guys like Garrett Cooper, Caleb Smith, Nick Rumbelow, and Ronald Herrera were traded for prospects years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility.

Among the notable prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season are Hoy Jun Park, Kyle Holder, Diego Castillo, and Dermis Garcia. I could see the Yankees dangling all of them as trade bait. Guys like Billy McKinney, Gio Gallegos, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, and the Domingos (Acevedo and German) may not be long for the 40-man roster. I could see them being moved in Cooper/Rumbelow/Herrera style trades before the end of the season.

The Yankees declared Torres, Andujar, Sheffield, and Florial off-limits in trade talks over the winter — or at least they did for Gerrit Cole — though I suppose the Walker and Drury pickups could’ve changed things. I imagine Andujar, for example, is more expendable than he was three or four months ago. In that case, the best trade chips in the farm system are Clint Frazier (technically no longer a prospect), Adams, Tate, Abreu, and possibly Andujar.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

The Yankees had a top tier farm system last spring and they have a top tier farm system right now, though the composition of the farm system is much different now than it was a year ago. Last spring the system was built around high-end position players close to the big leagues like Judge, Torres, and Frazier. Now the farm system is built around pitching, especially at the lower levels.

Pitchers are inherently more risky than position players, especially lower level pitchers. Pitchers get hurt, they don’t develop that third pitch, so on and so forth. Because of that, the farm system carries considerably more risk now than it did a year ago. And with the anticipated graduations of Torres, Andujar, and Wade, as well as others like Adams and German, plus any trades, the smart money is on the farm system taking a hit over the next 12 months.

And you know what? That is perfectly fine. When you have a great farm system, the goal is to turn it into a great Major League team, and the Yankees are in the middle of doing that. Baseball America ranked the Cubs’ system first in 2015 and 28th in 2018. Think Theo Epstein and Cubs fans care? Nope. Going from a great system to a bad system because of injuries and poor performance is one thing. Going from a great system to a bad system because all your top prospects became great big leaguers is another. That’s what every team is striving for, and the Yankees are in the process of doing exactly that.