River Avenue Blues

Mailbag: Wild Card Game, Chapman, Realmuto, Goldschmidt

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We’ve got 12 questions in this week’s mailbag, the final mailbag of the 2018 regular season. As always, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is where you can send your mailbag questions each week.

Tanaka. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

Robert asks: Starting pitcher for the Wild Card? How about the one least likely to implode in early on. Any stats on who most often throws a scoreless 1st and 2nd inning? Probably no Didi to bail us out again this year.

The other day Aaron Boone mentioned the Yankees might only let their starting pitcher go through the lineup one time in the Wild Card Game, even if he’s effective. I’m not sure that’ll happen — if the starter goes nine up, nine down with five strikeouts, are they really taking him out? — but the Yankees have made it pretty clear they’ll be ready to go to their bullpen at the first sign of trouble. Anyway, here are the numbers (ERA/FIP/opponent’s OPS+):

Happ Severino Tanaka
1st inning 3.90/4.49/76 4.22/3.31/104 4.00/3.75/103
2nd inning 2.40/3.22/76 2.25/2.37/50 2.67/3.12/75
1st & 2nd innings 3.15/3.86/76 3.23/2.85/78 3.33/3.44/90
1st time thru lineup 3.03/4.29/92 2.60/2.74/79 2.70/3.12/87

Reminder that the first inning is the highest scoring inning, historically. That’s the only inning in which each team’s best hitters are guaranteed to hit. If the Yankees are only looking for someone to get through the lineup one time, it has to be Severino. And not just because of the numbers in the table. Tell him to air it out for nine batters and you’re getting a 100 mph heater and a razor blade slider. Severino can dominate anyone. The Yankees have to piece together 27 outs in the Wild Card Game. My guess is the bullpen get the majority of those 27 outs.

Joe asks: This might be a little extreme, any chance if Yanks make it to the ALDS, they leave Chapman off the roster and ready him for the ALCS? Don’t remember a time he looked good against the Red Sox. Maybe if they keep him on the roster, he doesn’t pitch at Fenway even in a save opportunity?

There’s no chance the Yankees will leave Aroldis Chapman off the postseason roster, in any round against any opponent. Chapman has really struggled against the Red Sox — he’s allowed 16 runs in 16 innings against the BoSox while with the Yankees — but he has the ability to dominate any lineup. You roll with your best players in the postseason and trust them to do what’s needed to win. What’s the alternative here? Tommy Kahnle? Sonny Gray? Yeah, no. Chapman’s recent history against the Red Sox is ugly and I’m not sure I’ll feel comfortable with him on the mound in a close game against the Red Sox, but he is far too good and far too talented to avoid in the postseason because of 16 bad innings spread across two and a half years.

Joe asks: Do you think that the presence of Yankees scouts with the Marlins could make an offseason swap of Sanchez for Realmuto a possibility? How would a trade look?

The Marlins would have to kick in more. I’ve gotten a lot of “why not trade Gary Sanchez for J.T. Realmuto?” questions this year and most suggest a package headlined by Sanchez for Realmuto. That is completely backwards to me. The Marlins would have to give up a package headlined by Realmuto for Sanchez. Consider …

  • Sanchez is two years younger.
  • Sanchez is under team control through 2022. Realmuto is under control through 2020.
  • Realmuto’s breakout season at age 27 in 2018 (.278/.342/.487/128 wRC+/+4.8 WAR) is no better than Gary’s age 24 season in 2017 (.278/.345/.531/129 wRC+/+4.4 WAR).
  • Aside from his caught stealing rate, the defensive numbers on Realmuto aren’t good at all.

I have no interest in selling low on Sanchez to buy high on Realmuto. Realmuto’s really good and I don’t have any reason to believe he won’t continue to be really good the next few years. But Sanchez is younger, is under control longer, and every bit as talented (if not more). If Gary were on some other team right now, I’d get a zillion questions asking whether the Yankees should buy low, and I’d say absolutely yes. Keep Sanchez. Don’t trade him for the flavor of the week. You’re never going to win anything if you cut bait the first time young players struggle.

Matt asks: Is it worth it to dismiss Josh Bard after this season and hire a former manager to be a bench coach? With bullpen management being a clear weakness for Boone perhaps an experienced manager can offer some help.

From what I understand, Josh Bard is very highly regarded within baseball. He’s considered a rising star in the coaching and managerial ranks. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we hear him connected to some managerial openings this winter and see him possibly go for interviews. Some of Aaron Boone’s bullpen management is dumb. The A.J. Cole thing is ridiculous. But, generally speaking, Boone uses guys in the right spots, in my opinion. David Robertson is the fireman. Dellin Betances faces the other team’s best hitters. That sorta stuff. It’s up to Boone to improve his improve his bullpen management. It’s not on the bench coach. Boone has to learn and gain experience. Besides, I suspect the front office has a lot of input — let’s call it “providing guidance” — into bullpen moves. I’m not sure a veteran bench coach would change much, if at all.

Goldy. (Ralph Freso/Getty)

Craig asks: Paul Goldschmidt. Some speculation that the D-backs could deal him over the winter – do you think the Yankees would/should make a play for him? What would it take?

Next season is the last season on Goldschmidt’s contract (it’s a no-brainer $14.5M club option year) and he’ll hit free agency at 32, which makes things dicey. He’s obviously great — Goldschmidt is hitting .291/.390/.538 (146 wRC+) with 33 homers and Gold Glove caliber defense this year — but paying big dollars for a first baseman’s age 32+ seasons isn’t something teams are eager to do these days. That has led to speculation about a trade his offseason.

If the Diamondbacks are open to trading Goldschmidt, the Yankees absolutely should make a play for him. He’s a dominant player who is a big upgrade at first base. I like Luke Voit, he’s been awesome, but I wouldn’t hesitate for a second to replace him with Goldschmidt. The Yankees have a lot of players in the prime of their careers or entering the prime of their careers. Anything they can do to increase their odds of winning the World Series in the short-term is worthwhile. The time to go all-in is right now. If not now, then when?

In a perfect world the Yankees would build a trade package around Greg Bird and Chance Adams, but I’m not sure that’s realistic. I’d want Justus Sheffield as part of a package if I were the D’Backs. I don’t think that’s unreasonable for a player as good as Goldschmidt, even one year of him. I’m not convinced Arizona will trade him. I think they’re more likely to keep him and try to win in 2019. If they’re open to trading Goldschmidt, the Yankees have to at least check in. Elite players are always worth acquiring.

Luke asks: All this talk about 10+ HRs out of the ’18 Yanks, and the next closest is Tyler Austin at 8 – womp. What about how many HRs have we gotten out of each position – has to be 20 per position, right? Any records close to being broken there?

I don’t know how to look this up historically, so I don’t know whether the Yankees are approaching (or setting) any records here, but it is pretty insane how much the home run production is spread out. The Yankees have not only gotten 20+ homers from every position except one (left field), they’ve gotten 20+ homers from every lineup spot except one (ninth). The numbers:

Homers by Position
Catcher: 29
First Base: 32
Second Base: 24
Shortstop: 33
Third Base: 26
Left Field: 19
Center Field: 29
Right Field: 37
Designated Hitter: 30

Homers by Lineup Spot
1. 27
2. 38
3. 26
4. 43
5. 33
6. 26
7. 23
8. 25
9. 19

That is pretty crazy. Can Andrew McCutchen (or whoever ends up playing left field) hit three home runs this weekend? Can the ninth place hitter sock one? I can’t imagine many teams throughout baseball history have received 20+ homers from each position and/or each lineup spot.

Zeke asks: What’s your opinion on bad contract swap for Ellsbury and Samardzija? Maybe Yankees can throw in one low level prospect to make it work?

I think we’re heading into the third straight offseason with “Ellsbury for Samardzija?” questions. Jacoby Ellsbury was hurt all season and a non-factor. Didn’t play a single game. Jeff Samardzija pitched to a 6.25 ERA (5.44 FIP) in 44.2 innings around injuries. They both have two years left on their contracts and the money is similar enough ($43M vs. $36M) that it shouldn’t be a significant obstacle in a trade.

It boils down to this: What reclamation project do you want, the 34-year-old starter or the 35-year-old outfielder? I honestly don’t know. I feel like Ellsbury is more likely to help you as a fourth outfielder than Samardzija is as a starter or even as a reliever at this point. Plus Ellsbury just had hip surgery. If his rehab carries over into early next season, the Yankees collect insurance money to offset his salary, and the savings might be worth more than whatever Ellsbury or Samardzija gives you on the field. I dunno. Two bad options here.

Frank asks: Do you have any interest in a Robbie Cano reunion for the first base job? If so, how much of Cano’s contract would Seattle have to eat to make the deal plausible?

Nah. Robinson Cano is forever cool with me, but he’s going to turn 36 years old in October, and there’s still five (!) years and $120M remaining on his contract. It’s all downside too. Cano’s best years are behind him and you’d be acquiring his heavy decline years, the years the Yankees wanted to avoid when they reportedly capped their offer at seven years. The Mariners would have to turn him into what, a $5M a year player for the Yankees to even consider it? Even then, do you want to pay $5M a year for his age 36-40 seasons? Nah. stay away from the declining dudes on the wrong side of 35, especially when there are multiple years remaining on their contract.

Miller. (Jason Miller/Getty)

Andrew asks: Looking at your recent bullpen post. Why not bring back Andrew Miller as a FA? Let Britton walk and sign Miller who should be a cheaper? We already know he can handle NY and would give us insurance if/when Betances leaves after next year.

I suspect we’re going to hear a lot about a potential Miller reunion this winter. It’s worth a longer discussion outside a mailbag setting (and after the postseason). Miller turns 34 next May and he went into last night’s game with a 3.38 ERA (3.10 FIP) and a 31.2% strikeout rate in 32 innings this season. That is obviously very good. It also qualifies as his worst season as a full-time reliever. He’s also missed time with a shoulder impingement and ongoing knee problems that date back to last season. The Indians even sent him to see the Cleveland Cavaliers doctors to figure out the knee issue. Miller is awesome. I don’t know anyone who didn’t love him when he was with the Yankees. The question is who do you want the next three years, Miller during his age 34-36 seasons or Zach Britton during his age 31-33 seasons? As good as Miller is, I don’t think it would be unreasonable to consider Britton the better investment going forward.

John asks: Assuming a RH starter in the Wild Card game, shouldn’t Walker start over Voit?

Nah. Voit’s been hitting righties pretty hard these last few weeks. He went into yesterday’s game hitting .291/.384/.570 (158 wRC+) against right-handers this season, and that was before his 3-for-3 with a double and a homer game. Neil Walker’s had some big moments with the Yankees — what are the odds he comes up with a random huge hit in the postseason? pretty darn good, I’d say — but he is hitting .234/.326/.390 (94 wRC+) against righties. Voit will swing-and-miss a bunch against big velocity from righties. That’s not unusual though. Everyone does that. Otherwise he’s hit righties very hard and I’d go with him over Walker against a righty in the postseason. (The fact Greg Bird is not even part of this conversation tells you how terrible he’s been.)

Keane asks: Do you think the Yankees might experiment with more bullpen games or an opener next year?

I could see it, yeah. I don’t think the Yankees or any non-Rays teams would do it as often as the Rays have this year, but it’s worth considering. Inevitably there will be injuries and the Yankees will have to turn to young kids to fill out the rotation next year. That’s just part of baseball. And when you have someone like that, like Domingo German or the Chance Adams spot start this season, it’s definitely worth considering using an opener more often. It’s not something I would look to do regularly. There will be some times when it makes sense though, and I hope the Yankees embrace it.

George asks: I had one question after reading your article about re-signing Andrew McCutchen. You mention a three-man (Judge, Stanton, McCutchen) rotation in the corner outfield and DH spots, but who is the backup for center field? If Hicks gets hurt, or needs a day off?

That’s a good question and that’s something the Yankees would have to figure out. Is Ellsbury on the bench? If yes, he’d be the obvious backup center fielder. Judge played center field in a game earlier this year, so the Yankees are comfortable running him out there. Comfortable enough to let him do it fairly often? Or on an everyday basis should Aaron Hicks get hurt? I dunno. The same question applies to Clint Frazier. I wouldn’t want to play McCutchen in center field in anything more than an emergency. He’s been pretty terrible out there the last few seasons. This is definitely something the Yankees would have to figure out should they re-sign McCutchen. You need quality backup options at this up-the-middle positions. They can be awfully hard to fill.

Yankeemetrics: Smackdown at Tropicana Field (Sept. 24-27)

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(AP)

Battle of the Bullpens
In an series-opening “bullpen game”, the Yankees gave the Rays a taste of their own medicine with a 4-1 win on Monday. They used eight pitchers to get 27 outs and the results were bueno: two hits, one run and 13 strikeouts.

Sonny Gray was the lone guy that went more than one inning, and he also was the only one that allowed a hit while surrendering the one run. So we had seven pitchers who didn’t give up a hit … sounds like a #FunFact! Yes, the seven “hitless” pitchers is a franchise record for a single game.

And when you add in the fact that each of those seven guys went at least one inning … the Yankees are just the second team in MLB history to have at least seven players allow no hits while each pitching at least one inning in a game. Unsurprisingly, the only other instance came this season — two weeks prior to Monday’s game — when the Angels did it against the Rangers on September 11.

The other important statistical note from this game came in the eighth when Dellin Betances tossed a perfect frame with two groundouts and popout. What, no strikeout? Slacker, Dellin. That snapped his 44-game streak with at least one punchout, the longest streak by a relief pitcher in AL history, and one game shy of the second-longest single-season streak in MLB history set last year by Brewers reliever Corey Knebel. During the streak he struck out 44 percent of the batters he faced and had more than three times as many strikeouts as hits allowed.

El Kracken is Awaken
Gary Sanchez’s bat woke up momentarily on Tuesday, fueling a 9-2 win that moved the Yankees to 37 games above .500, a season-high mark and their most games above the redline since the end of the 2009 regular season (44 games, 103-59).

Sanchez was on base three times, with a walk, home run and a single, and drove in a season-high-tying four runs. Prior to this game, he had just six RBI in 19 games since coming off the DL on September 1.

(AP)

There is no sugar-coating Sanchez’s awful season, but there is one glimmer of optimism if you squint really hard. On the rare occasion that he does get a hit, he makes it count. With his homer on Tuesday, an astounding 56.9 percent (33 of 58) of his hits have gone for extra-bases. That would be the third-highest rate of extra-base hits per hit among the more than 1,000 player-seasons in Yankees history with at least 300 plate appearances. The two ahead of him: Babe Ruth in 1920 (57.6%) and Babe Ruth in 1921 (58.3%).

Luis Severino had a good-but-not-great outing, but he did provide a nice record-breaking note for us Yankeemetricians: His seven strikeouts gave him 450 since the start of 2017, the most ever by a Yankee pitcher in a two-season span. The previous record was set by Ron Guidry, when he struck out 449 guys spanning the 1978-79 seasons.

(USA Today)

Seven is not enough
On the verge of inching closer to homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game next week, the Yankees delivered one of their patented “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” games, losing 8-7 on Wednesday after blowing an early 3-0 lead.

Neil Walker put the Yankees on the board first, drilling a three-run homer in the top of the opening frame. After hitting three homers in his first 73 games (225 at-bats), he has eight homers in his last 38 games (116 at-bats). Each of his last five homers have given the Yankees a lead:

David Robertson put the game out of reach when he suffered a rare meltdown in the eighth inning, allowing five of the six batters he faced to reach base, with four of them coming around to score. It’s the first time in more than eight years that he allowed at least four runs while getting no more than one out in a game. That last time he did that was April 13, 2010 against the Angels; and the only other time he did it in his career was during his first month in the big leagues, on July 28, 2008 against the Orioles.

(AP)

Blowout wins are awesome
The Yankees capped off the series in Tampa with an ultra-satisfying 12-1 rout on Thursday, winning their first series at Tropicana Field in two years (September 20-22, 2016).

The bats exploded for 13 hits, including four #toomanyhomers, increasing their season total to 260 dingers. That’s tied with the 2005 Rangers for the second-most in a single season in MLB history and four shy of the record held by the 1997 Mariners. Now they get a chance to break the record this weekend … three games at Fenway … oh how sweet that would be.

They pounded the Rays early and often, racing out to an early 4-0 lead thanks to a #MiggyMantle three-run homer in the top of the first inning, his 27th of the season. It also gave him 90 RBI, and combined with his 43 doubles, he has put himself in some elite company. Andujar is one of seven rookies in MLB history to reach each of those totals — 90 RBI, 43 doubles and 27 homers — in a season:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Albert Pujols (2001)
  • Nomar Garciaparra (1997)
  • Tony Oliva (1964)
  • Ted Williams (1939)
  • Joe DiMaggio (1936)
  • Hal Trosky (1934)

The Rookie of the Year award was first handed out in 1947; Pujols, Garciappara and Oliva — the other three besides Andujar to make this list since 1947 — each took home the ROY trophy in those years.

CC Sabathia delivered a masterful vintage performance in (probably) his final appearance of the regular season. He allowed one hit while striking out five over five scoreless innings, before getting ejected in the sixth following a revenge-plunking of Rays catcher Jesus Sucre. That lowered his ERA to 3.65 and upped his strikeout total to 140 this year. Only three other pitchers Yankee history have finished with that many strikeouts and that low an ERA in their age-37 season or older: Roger Clemens (2001), Mike Mussina (2006, 2008) and Hiroki Kuroda (2012, 2013).

Yankees 12, Rays 1: “That’s for you, bitch”

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Mark this one down as one of the best games of the season. It wasn’t a thrilling comeback or anything like that, but damn, that was satisfying. The Yankees blew the Rays out 12-1 in the four-game series finale Thursday afternoon and it got a little salty. At 98-61, the Yankees have their most wins since their 103-59 championship season in 2009.

(Getty)

Teammates Are More Important Than Half-A-Million Bucks
CC Sabathia cost himself $500,000 by sticking up for his teammate Thursday afternoon. Andrew Kittredge threw behind Austin Romine in the sixth inning (more on that in a bit), then, in the next half-inning, Sabathia drilled catcher Jesus Sucre with his first pitch in retaliation. Obviously intentional. Sabathia was immediately ejected and, on his walk to dugout, he pointed to Kittredge and the Rays dugout and said “That’s for you, bitch.” What a badass.

Sabathia was in total control Thursday afternoon. Five scoreless innings on 54 pitches. He retired the first eleven batters he faced and allowed just a single against the shift and two hit-by-pitches, one of which was intentional. He went into this game needing seven innings to trigger a $500,000 bonus, and, given the score and his pitch count, Sabathia was well on his way to pocketing half-a-million bucks Thursday. Instead, he threw at the first batter possible to stick up for his teammate. He is the man. Imagine not wanting the Yankees to give this guy one-year contracts until he decides to hang ’em up.

On the mound, Sabathia looked as good as he’s looked at any point this season. He had it all working. Inside cutters and backdoor sliders to righties, inside sinkers and sweepy sliders to lefties, and elevated heaters for swings and misses. His swing-and-miss pitch locations:

All elevated fastballs. Sabathia was masterful. Five strikeouts, eight swings and misses among his 55 pitches, and a 74.9 mph average exit velocity allowed. There have been over 4,000 individual player games this season in which a pitcher allowed at least ten balls in play. In this start, Sabathia had the 15th lowest average exit velocity among those 4,000+ games. Give him the $500,000 anyway, Yankees. You can afford it.

A Big Early Lead
After that disappointing loss Wednesday night, the Yankees came out in the best way possible Thursday afternoon. They put a hurtin’ on opener Jaime Schultz* and took a 4-0 lead in the first inning. Brett Gardner opened the game with a double to right that came two pitches after it appeared he struck out. He reached out to foul off a curveball, and initially I thought Sucre caught the foul tip. Replays showed it hit the ground, so the at-bat continued, and Gardner doubled.

* Isn’t the point of the opener strategy to use a *good* pitcher against the top of the lineup? Schultz went into this game with a 4.55 ERA (4.94 FIP) in 29.2 big league innings and a 5.75 ERA (3.83 FIP) in 36 Triple-A innings this year. I dunno. Doesn’t seem like someone you want facing the top of the order.

Schultz walked Luke Voit and Giancarlo Stanton back-to-back with one out, then the Tampa battery gifted the Yankees a run. With Neil Walker down in the count 0-2, Schultz bounced a curveball, Sucre let it slip through his legs, and Gardner trotted home on the wild pitch. It also moved the runners up to second and third with one out. Walker struck out and couldn’t get a run in, but Miguel Andujar picked him up. The three-run bomb:

No idea how Andujar kept that ball fair. That’s a backup slider that looked off the plate inside, yet Andujar was able to wrap it around the left field foul pole for a three-run home run and a 4-0 lead. He’s up to 72 extra-base hits on the season (43 doubles, 27 homers, two triples). That is tied for 14th most in baseball with Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos, and Matt Chapman. It’s the third most extra-base hits by a rookie in franchise history, behind Joe DiMaggio (88 in 1936) and Aaron Judge (79 in 2017).

The Yankees jumped out to a 4-0 lead and they added to it in the fourth inning. Gleyber Torres singled, moved up on a wild pitch, and Romine brought him in with a single. Adeiny Hechavarria reached on an infield single, Gardner moved the runners up with a ground ball, Judge brought Romine home with a sacrifice fly, and Voit doubled in-and-out of Mallex Smith’s glove in center for another run and a 7-0 lead. Including the ninth inning Wednesday, the Yankees scored 13 runs in the span of five innings against the Rays.

Piling On
I suppose this is where I explain Sabathia’s ejection. He grazed Jake Bauers with a fastball in the bottom of the fifth, and Kittredge, being the joke that he is, decided to throw a first pitch fastball behind Romine’s head in the next half-inning. Romine was not happy, understandably, and Sabathia stormed out of the dugout before Aaron Boone cut him off. Garbage move by a garbage pitcher and a garbage organization.

The Rays are eliminated, Kittredge sucks, and the postseason is less than a week away. I didn’t want the Yankees to start a brawl. The Yankees had nothing to gain and a lot to lose. Sabathia did what he had to do and that was that. But, before Sabathia could drill Sucre, the Yankees torched Kittredge for four runs in that sixth inning, after he threw behind Romine. The inning went strikeout, infield single, triple, sacrifice fly to the warning track, homer, homer, fly out. Voit and Stanton went back-to-back.

The four-run sixth inning gave the Yankees an 11-0 lead. Stanton added a solo shot in the ninth. The Yankees scored 32 runs in the four-game series. It’s the most runs they’ve scored in a series in Tropicana Field since September 2005, when they scored 32 runs in a three-game set. Also, the Yankees secured their first series win in Tropicana Field since September 2016. (They beat the Rays in a road series last September, but that was the alternate site series at Citi Field.)

Leftovers
Unless the Yankees use him in relief this weekend (can’t see it), Sabathia’s regular season is over. He finishes with a 3.65 ERA (4.16 FIP) in 153 innings. Pretty awesome season for the big man. Also, he finishes the year with 2,986 career strikeouts. He’ll have to wait until next April to become the 17th member of the 3,000 strikeout club. Only Randy Johnson (4,672) and Steve Carlton (4,136) have more strikeouts in history among southpaws.

Twelve runs on 13 hits and four walks for the Yankees. Gardner (double, triple), Voit (single, double, homer), Stanton (two homers), Andujar (single, homer), and Hechavarria (two infield singles) all had multiple hits. Stanton had two walks and Voit and Gardner had one each. Voit and Stanton, the 3-4 hitters, went a combined 5-for-6 with a double, three homers, three walks, five runs scored, and four runs driven in. That’ll work, gentlemen.

Luis Cessa tossed three innings following Sabathia’s ejection and allowed a garbage time solo home run to C.J. Cron. I couldn’t possibly care less about that. Jonathan Loaisiga handled the ninth. The regular late-inning relievers all got the afternoon off after working pretty heavily the last week or so. Good game all around.

And finally, Stanton’s two home runs gives the Yankees 24 individual multi-homer games this season, tying the record held by the 1961 Yankees and 1966 Braves. Also, the Yankees are up to 260 homers on the year. That is the second highest single-season home run total in baseball history. The list:

  1. 1997 Mariners: 264
  2. 2018 Yankees: 260 and counting
  3. 2005 Rangers: 260
  4. 2010 Blue Jays: 257
  5. 1996 Orioles: 257

The Yankees have three games to hit five home runs to break the record. Doable. Definitely doable. I hope they get it done this weekend. It’d be cool as hell.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
For the box score and updated standings, go to ESPN. MLB has the video highlights. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The final series of the 2018 regular season. The Yankees are going to Boston for a three-game weekend set. The Red Sox have already clinched everything they can clinch. The series is meaningless for them. The Yankees still need to clinch homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game. The magic number is one. Lefties J.A. Happ and Brian Johnson are the scheduled starting pitchers for Friday night’s series opener.

Stephen Tarpley has gone from September call-up to potential postseason LOOGY

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(New York Post)

When the Yankees were faced with the prospect of a bullpen game Monday night, they turned to Jonathan Holder as the “opener.” That’s not all that surprising. Holder’s been one of the team’s top bullpen arms all year.

The surprise was who came next: a southpaw with the potential to earn a postseason roster spot.

As you can tell from the title of this piece, that lefty is Stephen Tarpley, who promptly sat down three Rays lefties in order. While Yankee fans likely assumed Justus Sheffield was the only September call-up with a chance to earn a postseason role, Tarpley has emerged as the LOOGY the Yankees haven’t had this year.

“He’s a problem for left-handed hitters,” Aaron Boone said of the young lefty. “He’s coming in pounding the zone. That sinker combined with the slider makes for a problem for lefties. That’s why he got on our radar this year … and he’s pitching his way into the conversation right here.”

The 25-year-old’s debut on Sept. 2 was highly forgettable, as he issued two walks and gave up three runs on three hits in an inning of work. He did, at least, pick up his first strikeout and show off his slider.

Since then, he’s been electric, holding batters to a .150/.227/.150 line with three hits, two walks and seven strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Lefties are just 1-for-11 with a walk and five strikeouts against him. He saw a definite platoon split in Triple-A, though he was able to tame right-handers at earlier levels.

While I love me an up-and-coming middle reliever, let’s not get too hyped; He’s only had eight appearances. At most, he’ll throw around 10 innings in the majors before October after starting the season in Double-A. His highest leverage outing was Monday’s second inning, so he’s yet to really find himself in a pressure situation. That’s not ideal for a potential postseason piece.

He’s not going to unseat one of the Yankees’ top six in the pecking order, nor would you be apt to use him before Lance Lynn in long relief. Whether he beats out an extra bench player or not comes down to how he matches up with an opponent’s left-handed options.

Luckily, we’ve gotten a chance to see how he would attack some of his potential postseason assignments when he faced Brock Holt, Rafael Devers and Mitch Moreland in last week’s Red Sox series (He faced the Athletics but only right-handed batters).

After walking Holt, he pitched Devers backward, starting him with an 86-mph slider at the top of the zone.

(MLB.TV)

He then missed with a slider before getting Devers to foul off his two-seam sinker. He went right back to that two-seam sinker and got Devers to swing and miss.

(MLB.TV)

He attacked Moreland in a similar way. After getting a called strike on his four-seamer, he went away with the slider, prompting a swing and miss.

(MLB.TV)

After a pair of foul balls — one on a slider and one on a sinker — Tarpley dropped down a bit for another sinker, catching Moreland looking to end the inning.

(MLB.TV)

You can see in the gifs above why his mere motion would be tough on lefties. Pitching from his three-quarters arm slot, Tarpley ends up almost behind the LHB’s field of vision. That mixed with deception in his motion makes it uncomfortable for same-sided hitters.

Tarpley features four pitches consistently in his repertoire: A four-seam fastball that touches 95 mph, a high 80s slider, a low 80s curveball and his most frequent pitch, that two-seam sinker that goes in on lefties hands.

“I get a lot of movement to both sides of the plate,” Tarpley said about why he’s effective left-on-left, “and I kind of just read guys. If the guy is already uncomfortable out there and I’m feeling comfortable, I already have the advantage.”

The sinker is reminiscent of Zach Britton with the movement down and in on lefties that produces both swing-and-miss and worm-killing qualities, not that he’s quite on Britton’s level. As Lindsey Adler of The Athletic found in her profile of Tarpley, it’s not coincidence as Tarpley both watched video of Britton and received some tips from the lefty last offseason.

Unfortunately for Tarpley, there are two late-inning lefties and David Robertson’s platoon split sitting ahead of him in the pecking order even if he gets a postseason role. Jordan Montgomery and Jaime Garcia were the last guys on the Yankees’ 2017 postseason roster and they combined for one low-leverage appearance.

However, with a strong performance this month while getting his feet wet in the majors, Tarpley has made himself a pitcher to watch for the Yankees, both in October and future seasons.

Game 159: Escape from Tropicana Field

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(Getty)

All things considered, this series is going well for the Yankees. They’ve won two of the first three games and, even in the loss yesterday, they showed some serious ninth inning fight and simply ran out of outs. This afternoon the Yankees will look to earn their first series win in Tropicana Field since, well, last September. Surprised it was that recent. Then again, the Yankees are 2-5 in their last seven series at the Trop, so yeah.

(Update: I was just reminded that last September’s series win was the alternate site series at Citi Field, so the Yankees haven’t won a series in Tropicana Field since September 2016.)

Anyway, the magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two, but the Athletics have an off-day today, which means the Yankees can not clinch until tomorrow at the earliest. Sucks. I was hoping they’d go to Boston and play three meaningless games this weekend. That won’t be the case. Just worry about today though. Win today, win the series, knock the magic number down to one. Here are this afternoon’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. LF Giancarlo Stanton
5. 3B Neil Walker
6. DH Miguel Andujar
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. C Austin Romine
9. SS Adeiny Hechavarria

LHP CC Sabathia

Tampa Bay Rays
1. CF Mallex Smith
2. LF Tommy Pham
3. 3B Joey Wendle
4. DH C.J. Cron
5. 2B Brandon Lowe
6. SS Willy Adames
7. 1B Jake Bauers
8. RF Carlos Gomez
9. C Jesus Sucre

RHP Jaime Schultz

It is nice and sunny in St. Petersburg today and dark and gloomy in Tropicana Field. Good day to play baseball outside. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out-of-market. You can also watch on Twitter. Twitter? Twitter. Enjoy the game.

Injury Updates: Aaron Hicks (hamstring) is tentatively scheduled to return to the lineup tomorrow, Aaron Boone said … Didi Gregorius (wrist) took batting practice on the field, though Boone cautioned they’re not out of the woods yet. Gregorius remains day-to-day and there is no firm timetable for his return to the lineup … Walker (shin) went for x-rays after the hit-by-pitch last night. They came back negative and he’s fine, hence his presence in the lineup.

Rotation Update: J.A. Happ starts Friday, Lance Lynn starts Saturday, and Luis Severino starts Sunday. That presumably takes Severino out of the running for the Wild Card Game start, though Sunday could be a short “throw day” outing rather than a full blown start. Right now, Happ lines up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest with Masahiro Tanaka lined up on two extra days rest.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

Rays 8, Yankees 7: Ninth inning rally falls short at the Trop

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So close to a thrilling comeback. Instead, it goes into the books as an 8-7 loss to the Rays. Drat. The magic number for the top wildcard spot remains two as of this writing. It could drop to one pending the outcome of the Athletics vs. Mariners game out on the West Coast.

(Getty)

A Good Start, A Bad Start
Wonderful start to the game. Andrew McCutchen led off the top of the first with a single, Giancarlo Stanton worked a two-out walk, and Neil Walker smashed a three-run dinger over the center field wall for a quick 3-0 lead. I was watching Kevin Kiermaier in center and, at first, it looked like the ball would sail over his head. Then he slowed down and made it seem like he was in position to make the catch. And then he watched it go over the wall. Hooray.

Masahiro Tanaka gave it all back immediately. Three runs in the top of the first and three runs in the bottom of the first. It was a mess of a bottom of the first too. So much went wrong. Let’s dissect that inning with annotated play-by-play. I usually save this for offensive innings, but that inning deserves it.

(1) For the second straight start Tanaka’s splitter seemed to move more side-to-side than down and out of the zone. The Mallex Smith leadoff single came on a 1-1 splitter that went left-to-right, and he poked it into left field. Smith then stole second and Tanaka walked Matt Duffy on five pitches. Two of the five pitches were splitters that didn’t dive. Just like that, the Rays had two on with no outs.

(2) Joey Wendle’s run-scoring single was a ground ball back up the middle and it did not come on a splitter. Tanaka was ahead in the count 1-2 and he gave him a fastball. A 91 mph heater that wasn’t elevated enough, and Wendle shot it back up the middle. One run in, two runners on base, no outs. Not good! At least Tanaka was able to strike out the molten hot Tommy Pham — Pham came into this game hitting .344/.441/.617 (189 wRC+) in 34 games with the Rays after coming over from the Cardinals at the trade deadline — for the first out, so that was good.

(3) Tanaka is an excellent defensive pitcher. One of the best I’ve ever seen. He’s as sure-handed as they come and he generally makes very good decisions in the field. But I have absolutely no idea what he was thinking on this play. Look at this. Just look:

File that under “trying to do too much.” Tanaka had no play at second base — no easy play at second base, I should say — and he should’ve flipped the ball over to first base for the second out of the inning. It seemed obvious as the play was unfolding. Tanaka’s throw sailed into center field, a run scored, and the runner was able to move up to third. The win probability numbers real quick:

  • Tanaka gets the out at first (runners on second and third with two outs): 59.2%
  • Tanaka does what he did (run in, runners on the corners with one out): 48.6%

That’s a pretty big win probability swing in the first inning! Anyway, Tanaka’s error was his first fielding error in MLB. For real. He made one error in his first 820.1 innings with the Yankees and it wasn’t a fielding error. He threw away a pickoff throw in 2016. Bad time for Tanaka’s first fielding error as a Yankee. I guess there was never going to be a good time for it, but this was especially bad. (Tanaka made a similar play on a bunt later in the game and got the out at second, and also successfully started a 1-6-3 double play, so he didn’t shy away from throwing to second base after the error.)

(4) If this were the Wild Card Game, I’m pretty sure the bullpen would’ve been going after Wendle’s single and Tanaka would’ve been out of the game after the error. That’s my guess. It’s not the Wild Card Game though, so Tanaka remained in, and he lost Kiermaier to load the bases with one out. Got ahead in the count 0-2, couldn’t get him to bite on a low splitter or an elevated fastball, then he hit him in the foot with a slider. Groan. Kiermaier left the game an inning later with a hairline fracture in his foot, the Rays say. Ouch. That was a costly hit-by-pitch.

(5) This was not going to be an easy play, but, once again, Miguel Andujar’s slow transfer cost the Yankees in the field. Willy Adames hit a chopper to third, Andujar had to back up a bit to field it cleanly, then he double clutched and Adames beat the throw. The YES Network had a great replay from the outfield that showed Andujar field the ball, get himself into throwing position, unnecessarily double clutch, and then throw to first.

That little hesitation cost the Yankees an out. A run scored to tie the game and the bases remained loaded with one out. Tanaka was able to strike out Jake Bauers and Nick Ciuffo to escape the inning and prevent further damage.

Tanaka settled down after the first inning but not really. He retired ten of the final 13 batters he faced and one of the baserunners was a Pham leadoff home run in the third inning. Another was Brandon Lowe’s leadoff single in the fifth to end Tanaka’s night. I hate hate hate going batter-to-batter. Jonathan Holder had been warming up since the first inning. Let him start the inning clean! Bah. Joe Girardi went batter-to-batter all the time and it drove me nuts.

Tanaka’s final line: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K on 80 pitches. What does this mean for the Wild Card Game? Beats me. I’d like to think the Yankees aren’t going to make the Wild Card Game starter decision based on who pitched the best most recently, but who knows. Unless the Yankees do something weird and unexpected like use Tanaka in relief over the weekend or start him on short rest Sunday, his regular season is over. He finishes with a 3.75 ERA (4.01 FIP) in 156 innings.

Too Little, Too Late
In the middle innings, the Yankees had their best chance to make this a game in the fifth. McCutchen worked a one-out work and Aaron Judge followed with a one-out single. Luke Voit had a marvelous battle with hard-throwing righty Yonny Chirinos. He swung through two inside two-seamers for a quick 0-2 count, then went ball, foul, foul, ball, foul, line drive single to center. Chirinos was throwing 95 mph bowling balls. His fastball was running all over the place. It was a great at-bat by Voit.

The problem? McCutchen got a poor read on the line drive single and initially retreated to second. He advanced to third on the play but should’ve scored from second on the single to the tie game 4-4. McCutchen’s been so good with the Yankees. So, so good. That was his first real glaring mistake. Sure enough, with the bases loaded and one out, the next batter (Stanton) grounded into an inning-ending 5-4-3 double play. One of those games.

After David Robertson (and Justus Sheffield) let the game get out of hand in the eighth, the Yankees of course made things interesting in the ninth. Very interesting. A walk (Gary Sanchez) and two singles (Brett Gardner and McCutchen) loaded the bases with one out. Judge shot a single over Adames at shortstop to score one run and bring Voit to the plate as the tying run. Voit almost tied the game. Almost. It looked damn good off the bat.

Smith couldn’t make the catch at the wall — that would’ve been a spectacular catch — and two runs scored. Judge had a tough time reading the play as he rounded second base, so he held up a bit, and that forced Voit to retreat back first. That was not nothing. Voit represented the tying run and he couldn’t move into scoring position. Stanton, the next batter, hit a grounder to third that Wendle tried to turn into a 5-4-3 double play, but couldn’t. The throw was wide of the bag and everyone was safe. Judge scored and the Yankees were down just 8-7.

At this point the Yankees had runners on first and second with one out. Due up was not Walker. It was Tyler Wade. Wade pinch-ran for Walker earlier in the game, after Walker was hit by a pitch when the score was tied 4-3. (X-rays on Walker’s shin came back negative.) Wade battled Sergio Romo for eight pitches but eventually flew out to right. Andujar then hit an anticlimactic foul pop-up wide of third base on the first pitch to end the game. The tying run was left at third. Back-to-back three-run half-innings at the start of the game and back-to-back four-run half-innings at the end of the game.

Leftovers
Aside from the whole batter-to-batter thing, I loved the way Boone used his bullpen. The Yankees were down one and he went to his late-inning relievers. Holder pitched the fifth, Chad Green pitched the sixth, Aroldis Chapman pitched the seventh, and Robertson pitched the eighth. Robertson’s (and Sheffield’s) bad inning proved costly. Green was especially dominant. In fact, in his last two outings, he threw 26 fastballs, opponents swung at 15 of them, and they missed on eleven (!). Golly.

Greg Bird has been relegated to decoy status. With a runner on first and two outs in the sixth inning, Bird was announced as a pinch-hitter for Adeiny Hechavarria against righty Chaz Roe, and the Rays countered with southpaw Jose Alvarado. Gleyber Torres then pinch-hit for Bird. It didn’t work (Gleyber struck out) but it was the right idea. The Yankees got the more favorable matchup. Bird has two starts and three pinch-hitting appearances in the last 26 games (ten plate appearances). He is a non-entity.

And finally, Walker’s home run was the 256th home run of the season for the Yankees. That is the fifth highest single-season home run total in history and eight short of the record held by the 1997 Mariners. Can the Yankees hit nine home runs in the final four games to break the record? It won’t be easy, but it is definitely doable.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Head on over to ESPN for the box score, MLB for the video highlights, and then ESPN for the updated standings. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the loss probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees’ last game in Tropicana Field until next season. Thank goodness. The Yankees and Rays will wrap up this four-game series with a 1pm ET game Thursday. CC Sabathia is making his final start of the regular season in that one. Actual starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow will be on the bump Jaime Schultz will be the opener for Tampa.