River Avenue Blues

Yankeemetrics: Riding the pinstripe rollercoaster (April 16-17)

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(Newsday)

The Good …
It’s always nice to beat up on the teams you’re supposed to crush, and that’s exactly what the Yankees did in their 12-1 rout of the Marlins on Monday night. The 11-run win was their second-largest in an Interleague game at Yankee Stadium, trailing only their 15-0 shellacking of the Mets in 2009.

The fireworks started early and didn’t let up, with the Yankees racing out to leads of 5-0 after at the end of the third and 11-0 at the end of the fifth. The Yankees have made a habit out of taking big leads recently. Since the start of last season, it was the 61st game in which they’ve had a lead of at least five runs. That’s four more such games than any other team in MLB through Monday’s slate (Astros were second with 57).

Aaron Judge continued his destruction of baseballs and record books, going deep in the second inning for his 60th career homer. It came in his 197th big-league game, making him the fastest player in major-league history to hit 60 homers, needing five fewer games than Mark McGwire.

Didi Gregorius somehow upstaged Judge by knocking two balls out of the park for his second multi-homer game in 2018. As of Monday, he was the only player in the American League with two multi-homer games this season. It was also his fifth homer of the year — #FunFact alert! — which is the same number that the Tigers and Royals each had as a team entering this week’s schedule.

In terms of piling up two multi-homer games this early into the season, Didi has put himself in some elite company. Only four other Yankees have done it twice in the team’s first 15 games since 1950: Alex Rodriguez (2007), Graig Nettles (1974), Mickey Mantle (1961) and Bill Skowron.

These were not Yankee Stadium cheapies, either, with distances of 411 and 416 feet. As of Monday, only six other guys had a game with two 410-foot-plus homers: Justin Smoak, Khris Davis, Javier Baez, Matt Davidson, Tyler Austin and Giancarlo Stanton.

Luis Severino bounced back from his rough outing at Fenway last week to throw an absolute gem. He gave up just one hit over six scoreless innings, walking one and striking out eight. Amazingly, its his second start this season with at least seven strikeouts and no more than one hit allowed.

  • He’s the first pitcher in franchise history with two such games in a single season. Reminder: it’s the middle of April.
  • The only other major-league pitchers in the last 110 seasons to have two such starts within the team’s first 15 games are Bob Feller (1947) and Sam McDowell (1966).
  • Sevy is the lone pitcher in baseball with three such games since the start of last season (his other came last September against the Rangers)

Or, if you prefer something simpler, there’s this leaderboard (through Monday):

Most Starts with 0 or 1 Runs Allowed Since 2017
Luis Severino 18
Chris Sale 18
Clayton Kershaw 17
Max Scherzer 17
(Getty)

… and The Bad
So who are the real Yankees? One day after posting their most convincing win of the season, the Yankees flopped in epic fashion on Tuesday night as the Marlins pummeled them, 9-1. Three weeks into the season and the Yankees are doing their best to define mediocrity. For example, their record after each of their last 10 games (starting April 5): 4-3, 4-4, 5-4, 5-5, 6-5, 6-6, 7-6, 7-7, 8-7, 8-8.

Masahiro Tanaka followed up last week’s debacle against the Red Sox (5 IP, 6 R, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 HR) with a nearly identical awful line against the Marlins (5 IP, 7 R, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 HR). He’s the first Yankee to cough up at least six earned runs in back-to-back starts since … Tanaka did so on May 14 and May 20 last year. #NotTanakaTime

Yes, he was hurt by a couple untimely errors behind him, but he didn’t help himself by allowing a ton of hard contact. Eleven of the 17 balls in play against Tanaka had an exit velocity of at least 96 mph, easily the most such batted balls given up by a Yankee pitcher in a game this season.

Giancarlo Stanton was booed yet again at the Stadium as he went 0-for-4, striking out twice, grounding into a double play and popping out with two men on base. It was his sixth game this season with multiple whiffs and no hits, the most by any Yankee in the team’s first 16 games. It’s a super-small sample size, but the hometown fans have good reason to spread the Bronx jeers when he’s at the plate: Stanton is now 3-for-35 (.086) with 20 strikeouts in eight home games, compared to 10-for-31 (.323) with nine strikeouts in eight road games.

Before we close, let’s end on positive note. Miguel Andujar was the Yankees savior and hitting star, helping the team avoid what would have been its worst shutout loss ever in Interleague play, thanks to his first career big-league homer in the bottom of the ninth inning. Combined with his fifth inning double that broke up Jarlin Garcia’s no-hit bid in the fifth inning, this was his third straight game with multiple extra-base hits, earning the young slugger our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series:

The 23-year-old Andujar is the youngest Yankee in more than 50 years to put together a streak of back-to-back-to-back games with at least two extra base hits. The last one to do it was a Brooklyn-born, 21-year-old rookie named Joe Pepitone in 1962.

Thoughts before the Yankees play 18 games in 18 days

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It is high, it is far, it is Andujar. (Presswire)

The Yankees have an off-day today, their third in the last six days thanks to the weather, and tomorrow night they start an 18 games in 18 days stretch with the first of four against the Blue Jays. Blue Jays, Twins, Angels, Astros, Indians. Fun!. Anyway, I have some thoughts on things, so let’s get to ’em.

1. A small lineup change I’d like to see: Flip Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Everyone is talking about dropping Stanton in the lineup — Aaron Boone was asked about it again last night and didn’t dismiss it entirely like he did last week — and I get it. I totally do. I think sliding him up a spot is the better play. As great as Didi Gregorius has been this season, he’s not going to scare me into pitching to Stanton. Sorry, love you Didi, but no. Aaron Judge is a monster though. A top five hitter in baseball in my opinion, someone who could legitimately have an impact on the way the opposing team pitches to the guys hitting in front of him. There aren’t many of those dudes out there. I’m a crazy person who doesn’t think the reigning NL MVP suddenly forgot how to play baseball. The home/road splits mean absolutely nothing to me — they’re eight-game samples! not even played consecutively! — and Stanton could snap out of it tonight. I still want him hitting in the first inning and I still want him getting a lot of at-bats because he’s one of the best hitters in the world. Judge is the only player on the team I expect to safely out-hit Giancarlo from this point forward and even that isn’t set in stone. The season is 16 games old. Sixteen! Before you drop the dude who hit 59 homers last season down in the lineup based on 16 games, flip him and Judge, and see what happens.

2. The Yankees managed to lose Tommy Kahnle (shoulder) and Luis Cessa (oblique) to the disabled list yesterday. Kahnle got hurt, Cessa was called up to replace him, then Cessa got hurt. That’s after Aaron Hicks and his replacement, Billy McKinney, got hurt in the span of two days earlier this season. It’s been that kinda year with injuries. I suppose the good news is the shoulder issue might explain Kahnle’s velocity/effectiveness issues. The bad news is that this is a shoulder injury and shoulder injuries are always trouble. Aroldis Chapman went down with a shoulder issue early last year and we were saying all the same things — this explains his performance, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda — and when he came back, he still struggled. He was demoted from the closer’s role and it wasn’t until September that he got back to being the Aroldis Chapman of old. I’m on the Cessa bandwagon and I was looking forward to seeing what he could do in short relief. Now he’s presumably going to miss a few weeks. Sucks. The Yankees are down to two healthy pitchers on the 40-man roster and not in the big leagues: Jonathan Holder and Jonathan Loaisiga. Loaisiga is a Single-A kid and not an MLB options. Pretty soon the Yankees might have to dip into their non-40-man roster pitching depth. It seems like they’re losing a player a series this year.

3. I’m not sure what to think about Brandon Drury responding “all the time” when asked whether he ever went up to the plate with blurred vision. That seems … unwise. Low-end fastballs these days are 90-91 mph and believe me, even an 80 mph fastball can do serious damage if you don’t duck out of the way in time. I just can’t imagine going up to the plate with blurred vision. It’s so dangerous. At the same time, Drury is a career .270/.319/.447 (96 wRC+) hitter in over 1,000 plate appearances, so more or less league average. If he did that with blurred vision at least part of the time, what’s he going to hit with proper vision? It’s hard enough to hit with 20/20 vision. Doing it with blurred vision seems stupid, frankly. Stupid and dangerous. And yet, I can’t help but wonder whether getting this taken care of will allow Drury’s offensive game to blossom because, you know, he’ll actually be able to see the baseball.

4. Big fan of the 6:35pm ET starts. I’m not sure they’ll last long-term given how empty the ballpark has been at first pitch — if you work in the city, getting to the ballpark in time for first pitch can be tough even for a 7pm ET start — but I love the early starts. It’s only a half-hour, but the difference was noticeable to me. These last two games were over at 9:30pm ET or so. How often does that happen? Less waiting around before the game and more time to do whatever after the game. (I’ve been able to watch a good amount of playoff hockey the last two nights thanks to the early starts!) The goal of these early starts is attracting more families and younger fans, the crowd that needs to be home earlier than everyone else, and I’m not sure it’s working. The park has been pretty empty at first pitch in the three 6:35pm ET games so far. If the Yankees scrap it, I wouldn’t blame them. I selfishly hope they go forward with more early starts. It’s nice to get the show on the road a little earlier than usual.

(Presswire)

5. Derek Jeter didn’t show up to Yankee Stadium for either of the two Marlins game and I don’t blame him one bit. He said it would be awkward. I think it would better be described as a no-win situation. Had Jeter shown up to Yankee Stadium, he would’ve been asked who he wants to win, and there’s no good answer to that question. Do you say the Marlins and upset literally millions of Yankees fans that adore you? Or do you say the Yankees and alienate a Marlins fan base that might already be too far gone? Coming to the two games and ducking the media would create it’s own set of problems too. There was just no good that could come from Jeter showing up to Yankee Stadium for the two Marlins games this week. I’m sure he’ll be at Marlins Park when the Yankees show up in August. Right now, it’s a little too early to show up to your old stomping grounds when the team you bought and dismantled looks so hopeless.

6. Love the new mound visit rule so far. The game flows so much better. I’m still trying to learn the rules though. I was under the impression that a mound visit by the catcher (or another position player) meant the next visit in the inning would necessitate a pitching change. That is not the case. Last Wednesday, during the ninth inning against the Red Sox, Gary Sanchez went to the mound twice to talk to Chapman, then pitching coach Larry Rothschild made a trip as well. I guess only the second visit by a coach requires a pitching change? Also, visits in extra innings roll over. I thought it was just one visit per extra inning. Instead, if you don’t use the extra mound visit you get in the 11th, you can still use it in the 12th. Overall though, the rule change seems to be working well. Just wish the rules had been a little more clear. I didn’t realize the catcher could make multiple visits in an inning without necessitating a pitching change.

7. The weather has really stunk so far this season. Not just with the Yankees either. The Twins and White Sox had three straight games snowed out over the weekend. As of Sunday, already 21 games have been postponed this season, four fewer than the entire 2016 season. (There were 39 total postponements last year.) Starting the season in March certainly didn’t help matters. It’s easy to say MLB should play lots of April games in warm weather cities and in ballparks with a dome or a retractable roof, but it’s not quite that simple. Those teams don’t want home games stacked early in the season. It means fewer home games later — attendance is always better in the summer months, no matter where the team plays — and more road games down the stretch. Cold Aprils will continue to become the norm in this part of the country and it’s something MLB will have to cope with eventually. Retrofitting existing ballparks with a retractable roof will be costly. Requiring all new parks to have a roof, retractable or otherwise, seems like a good idea, though given the way these things usually go, taxpayers will foot the bill. Players don’t like the idea of regularly scheduled doubleheaders, which would allow MLB to start the season later. Another solution: Shorten the season to something like 144 or 154 games, and start in mid-to-late April. The owners won’t want to give up the home dates though. Hopefully this is an anomaly year and the weather won’t be so bad in Northeast and Midwest in the future. That doesn’t seem like a viable long-term plan though, just hoping the weather is better. Eventually MLB will have to figure out a way to make April baseball more playable.

Marlins 9, Yankees 1: Blown out at home by a team that isn’t even trying

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(Elsa/Getty)

Good gravy. That wasn’t a bad loss in the “oh man that’s a gut punch” sense. That was a bad loss in the “how do you get blown out at home by a team that’s not even pretending to be competitive???” sense. The Yankees lost Tuesday night’s game 9-1 to the not even trying Marlins. What a miserable game.

I was running around a bit and I only caught part of the game on television and part of the game on radio, so I can’t talk about it too intelligently. (Not that I usually do that anyway!) So, rather than a full recap, here are some points on one of the uglier losses of the season. This was bad.

1. The defense continues to be an issue. The Yankees were charged with two errors — their AL leading error total is up to 15 in 16 games — and it really could’ve been four or five errors. Every infielder could’ve had one. The most egregious error was Didi Gregorius throwing away a ball in the first inning, allowing two runs to score. (One run would’ve scored on the play anyway.)

Tyler Austin had two catchable balls clank off his glove — they were the kinda plays a big league first baseman should make — but was only charged with one error. (To be fair, he also made a real nice diving stop along the foul line as well.) Neil Walker and Miguel Andujar couldn’t reel in potential ground outs. I’m willing to overlook Didi’s error. He’s awesome and sound defensively.

Everyone else? Nope. Errors can be dumb and they are not the best way to evaluate defense. The Yankees’ error total does, in my opinion, accurately reflect how shaky they’ve looked in the field so far this season. Routine plays are not being converted into outs and they’re paying the price. They’re paying the price in runs and extra pitches. The defense has to be tightened up. They’re better than this.

2. Andujar is heating up. Remember last year when the Yankees scored in the ninth inning a bunch of times to keep their no shutout streak alive? They weren’t shutout until their 90th game last year. On Tuesday, they had their first real “score in the ninth inning for no reason other than to preserve the no shutout streak” moment of the season. Miguel Andujar hit his first MLB home run! To the video:

Love Miggy. He doubled earlier in the game — Jarlin Garcia took a no-hitter into the fifth, annoyingly — and now has six extra-base hits in his last three games (triple, homer, four doubles). Andujar is the first Yankee with multiple extra-base hits in three straight games since Carlos Beltran in 2015. Glad he’s getting more comfortable at the plate. With Brandon Drury out indefinitely, Andujar should play every single day, no questions asked.

3. Blown opportunities. I have no problem tipping my cap to the opposing pitcher when the situation calls for it. Sometimes a dude has a good game and you get shut down. It happens. Jarlin The Marlins did not pitch particularly well in this game. Five walks in five innings? Plus a bunch of hitter friendly 2-0 and 3-1 counts? Nah. The Yankees let Garcia off the hook more than Garcia earned his five shutout innings. I’m not tipping my cap this time.

Back-to-back walks in the first? Giancarlo Stanton hits into a double play and Gregorius grounds out. Back-to-back walks in the third? Stanton pops up a 3-1 pitch and Gregorius grounds out on a half-swing. A walk, a single, and another walk to load the bases in the sixth? Walker and Austin struck out. The Yankees went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Stanton heard all the boos because booing him is the cool thing to do now, but the entire offense stunk.

4. Leftovers. Judge’s hitting streak came to an end at 12 games. Oh well. He did walk twice though. His on-base streak is up to 13 games … Masahiro Tanaka’s defense did him no favors in the three-run first inning, but the J.T. Realmuto three-run homer to put the game out of reach is all on him. He’s allowed at least one dinger in every start this season, including Spring Training … Luis Cessa, who was called up to replace the injured Tommy Kahnle, got hurt. So it goes.

Here are the box score, video highlights, updated standings, and Bullpen Workload page. I’m not going to bother to embed the win probability graph. It’s lopsided. Duh. The Yankees have yet another off-day Wednesday — a scheduled one this time — then they’ll open a four-game series with the Blue Jays on Thursday. CC Sabathia and Aaron Sanchez are the scheduled starters for the opener.

DotF: Wagner homers again in Tampa’s loss

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Not surprisingly, SS Gleyber Torres was held out of the lineup today after leaving last night’s game with back stiffness. Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch it’s not serious and Torres is tentatively scheduled to return to the lineup tomorrow. Triple-A Scranton has a 12-hour bus ride coming up after tomorrow’s game. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees play it extra safe and sit Gleyber tomorrow too.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (8-4 loss to Gwinnett)

  • RF L.J. Mazzilli: 1-4, 1 R, 1 K
  • CF Shane Robinson: 2-4, 1 R, 1 K
  • DH Mike Ford: 2-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K
  • SS Abi Avelino: 0-3, 1 BB, 2 K — went 11-for-24 (.458) during his seven-game hitting streak
  • LHP Josh Rogers: 5 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 1/7 GB/FB — 63 of 92 pitches were strikes (68%) … allowed three runs total in his first two starts and 12 innings
  • RHP Anyelo Gomez: 0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K — eight pitches, four strikes … he left the game with the trainer, so that’s no good

[Read more…]

Luis Cessa heading to disabled list with oblique strain

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(Presswire)

Yet another Yankee is heading to the disabled list. Following tonight’s game Brian Cashman confirmed Luis Cessa will be placed on the 10-day DL with an oblique strain. Cessa was called up earlier today to replace Tommy Kahnle, who was placed on the 10-day DL with shoulder tendinitis.

Cessa exited tonight’s game with the injury after throwing two innings and 28 pitches. Jonathan Holder and Jonathan Loaisiga are the only healthy 40-man roster pitchers not in the big leagues right now, so I’d bet on Holder getting called up tomorrow. Cessa’s injury also means Domingo German is the unquestioned sixth start right now.

Cessa joins Kahnle (shoulder), Greg Bird (ankle), Brandon Drury (migraines), Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip, foot), Clint Frazier (concussion), Ben Heller (elbow), Billy McKinney (shoulder), and CC Sabathia (shoulder) on the disabled list. Sabathia is due back Thursday. Everyone else is out more long-term.

Update: I’m a dolt. The Yankees will probably just activate Sabathia and plug him into Cessa’s roster spot rather than call up Holder. There’s an off-day Wednesday and Sabathia is Thursday’s scheduled starter. Duh.

Game 16: Tanaka Tuesday

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(Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees did what they were supposed to do against a bad Marlins team last night. They didn’t just beat them, they blew them out. It was a laugher. Tonight the Yankees will try for the quick two-game sweep and their first three-game winning streak of the season. Securing the first three-game winning streak before suffering the first three-game losing streak is a modest goal.

Masahiro Tanaka is on the mound tonight and, like Luis Severino last night, he’s looking to bounce back from a yucky start last week. Severino was great yesterday. Hopefully Tanaka will be great today. With another off-day tomorrow, I imagine Aaron Boone will have the bullpen ready to go at the first sign of serious trouble. Those guys have had plenty of time to rest since Friday. Here are the starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. DH Giancarlo Stanton
4. SS Didi Gregorius
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. CF Aaron Hicks
7. 2B Neil Walker
8. 1B Tyler Austin
9. 3B Miguel Andujar

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Miami Marlins
1. LF Derek Dietrich
2. SS Miguel Rojas
3. 2B Starlin Castro
4. DH Justin Bour
5. C J.T. Realmuto
6. 3B Brian Anderson
7. 1B Tomas Telis
8. CF Cameron Maybin
9. RF J.B. Shuck

LHP Jarlin The Marlin Garcia

It’s another chilly and windy evening in New York. Par for the course these days. Tonight’s game will begin at 6:35pm ET and you’ll be able to watch on YES. Enjoy the ballgame.

Injury Updates: Greg Bird (ankle) hit off a tee today and said he believes he’ll begin full baseball activities by next week. He’ll likely go to Tampa to continue rehabbing when the Yankees go to the West Coast next weekend … Brandon Drury (migraines) took ground balls today for the first time since being placed on the disabled list, so he’s making progress … In case you missed it earlier, Tommy Kahnle was placed on the 10-day DL with shoulder tendinitis. Luis Cessa was called up to fill the roster spot.

Ezequiel Duran and the next big thing in the farm system

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(PinstripedProspects.com)

Almost four years ago now, the Yankees made a mockery of baseball’s international amateur talent acquisition system when they blew their bonus pool out of the water and signed basically every highly regarded prospect during the 2014-15 international signing period. They spent roughly $30M on prospects in one day. Other teams soon followed suit and MLB had to change the rules.

The 2014-15 spending spree has not worked out as hoped. Much of the big name talent has stalled out, with lower profile signings like Estevan Florial ($200,000) and Freicer Perez ($10,000) emerging as the cream of the crop. The Yankees have a great Latin America scouting system and they consistently find low-cost gems like Florial and Perez. Luis Severino ($225,000) and Jorge Mateo ($250,000) were also small bonus guys back in the day.

The 2017-18 signing period doesn’t end until June 25th, but already the next great low-cost Yankees prospect is generating buzz. Dominican infielder Ezequiel Duran, who signed for $10,000 last July, is earning high praise early in his pro career. Kiley McDaniel ranked Duran as the No. 14 (!) prospect in the farm system last month, and earlier this week, the great Ben Badler (subs. req’d) wrote him up as a sleeper prospect.

It is not often a recently signed international prospect generates this much buzz this early in his career. Most international draftees sign contracts that begin the following the season, so a 2017-18 signing period kid who signs on July 2nd would sign a 2018 contract. That wasn’t the case with Duran though. He’s already 18, which allowed him to sign a 2017 contract and play last summer. Why didn’t he sign earlier? McDaniel explains:

Duran was a mid-six-figure prospect whom the Yankees scooped up last year for $10,000 because he failed to register with MLB and fell off the radar of many teams as they quickly spent their bonus pools.

Huh. The kid could’ve signed a signing period or two ago and likely received a much larger bonus, but because he didn’t register with MLB, he kinda got lost in the shuffle. The Yankees swooped in and got him for a pittance this signing period. Duran authored a .393/.415/.754 (220 wRC+) batting line with three homers and four steals in 15 Dominican Summer League games last year, and the Yankees brought him to minor league camp in Tampa this spring rather than leave him in the Dominican Republic. From McDaniel:

He just got to America for the first time this (March), so some Yankees staff members aren’t even that familiar with him. Nevertheless, he’s made some noise in March, including hitting an opposite-field homer at 109 mph in a spring training game. He’s posted some exit velos up to 112 mph in the Dominican and projects for above-average to plus game power, as his feel for hitting is also advanced.

Badler backs that up, saying Duran “has a knack for barreling balls with explosion off the bat,” adding he is “recognizing pitches well for his age with a sound approach.” There’s not much video available, but here’s an at-bat from Spring Training:

Duran profiles as a bat-first second baseman, and given his age and last year’s DSL performance, as well as the fact he’s already in Tampa, it’s safe to assume he’ll spend the summer with one of the Yankees’ three rookie ball affiliates. Either the Pulaski Yankees or one of the two Gulf Coast League teams. There’s no reason to take it slow here. Duran’s bat is advanced and he’s already 18, so let’s get the show on the road.

Now, it’s important to keep things in perspective. This is an 18-year-old with 15 pro games under his best, none of which were played in the United States. It’s great he looked good in Spring Training. But it is only Spring Training, and the kid has only played in the lowest levels of professional baseball. Duran has a very, very, very long way to go before being any kind of factor for the Yankees. So much can go wrong in the coming years. That’s baseball.

That said, when an international prospect gets this much attention this quickly, he’s usually a top prospect. Gary Sanchez or Vlad Guerrero Jr., someone like that. Not a kid who signed for $10,000 at 18. (Most worthwhile international prospects sign at 16.) McDaniel and especially Badler are two of the best on the international baseball beat. It’s not one random dude praising Duran. The heavy hitters are in on him. The hype machine is fired up.

Even with the obvious caveats that apply to an 18-year-old who has played only 15 pro games, Duran is suddenly a prospect to watch this season because the early reports from reliable reporters are glowing, and because the Yankees have a very good track record in Latin America. Maybe Duran works out, maybe he doesn’t. Generally speaking though, players who get this much attention this early in their careers tend to become highly regarded prospects down the road, and that bodes well for Duran and the Yankees.