Yu Darvish Archives - Page 2 of 7

The Yankees are interested in Yu Darvish, but it would take some luxury tax creativity to make it happen

December 21, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

As the Yankees continue to look for another starting pitcher, their search has been limited to trades for a controllable young starter, as far as we know. They haven’t connected to many free agent pitchers this winter. Or connected to any, really. At least until now. Ken Rosenthal reports the Yankees remain interested in Yu Darvish, who started meeting with teams (Cubs and Astros, most notably) this week.

Darvish, 31, had a 3.86 ERA (3.83 FIP) with 27.3% strikeouts and 7.6% walks in 31 starts and 186.2 total innings for the Rangers and Dodgers this past season. It was his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Last year he threw 100.1 innings with a 3.41 ERA (3.09 FIP) after returning with his new elbow ligament in late May. The Yankees want another starter and Darvish is best free agent available, so I figured it was only a matter of time until the two were connected. Let’s talk this out.

1. Does he fit under the luxury tax threshold? Probably not. Darvish is looking at $20M+ per season on a however many years contract, and according to our estimates, the Yankees have about $25M in payroll space under the $197M luxury tax threshold. They need to set aside some money for midseason additions though, plus there’s the whole “they don’t have a second or third baseman right now” thing.

For what it’s worth, both MLBTR and the FanGraphs Crowdsourcing have Darvish signing a deal north of $25M annually, and that would be a luxury tax plan buster for the Yankees. Unless they can unload Jacoby Ellsbury or decide to sacrifice bullpen depth for payroll space, Darvish simply won’t fit under the luxury tax threshold without taking a big discount, and I have no reason to believe he’s interested in taking a discount. I wouldn’t be.

2. The Yankees wouldn’t have give up a draft pick. On the bright side, Darvish was traded at midseason, meaning he was not eligible for the qualifying offer. He is not tied to draft pick compensation. Because the Yankees are paying luxury tax for the 2017 season, they’ll have to give up their second and fifth highest draft picks, as well as $1M in international bonus money during the 2018-19 signing period to sign a qualified free agent. All first round picks are protected now.

In Darvish’s case, he’s so good that the free agent compensation is a non-issue. Of course you give up your second and fifth draft picks and $1M in international bonus money for a guy like him when you’re trying to win. Giving up your first rounder for Darvish is no big deal, in my opinion. In this case though, there is no free agent compensation attached, so, if the Yankees do shock the world and sign Darvish, they’ll keep all their picks and bonus money.

3. The reported interest in mutually beneficial. Both Darvish and the Yankees benefit from this rumor, in theory. Darvish gets to tell interested teams the Yankees are involved, which increases his leverage. The Yankees get to tell the teams they’re talking to about a pitching trade they’re also in the mix for Darvish, and could sign a free agent rather than trade prospects. It’s a win-win. Will it work? Eh, who knows. It can’t imagine it hurts either party.

4. So what about those two World Series starts? Holy crap was Darvish bad in the World Series. He made two starts against the Astros and allowed nine runs on nine hits and two walks in 3.1 innings. Zero strikeouts. Postseason performance usually has very little impact on free agent contracts. In this case, Darvish was so bad in the World Series that you can’t help but ask yourself “what’s up with that?”

Two things. One, Darvish was great in his NLDS (5 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K) and NLCS (6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K) starts before the Astros ripped him to shreds in the World Series. And two, apparently Darvish was tipping his pitches against Houston. From Tom Verducci:

According to a Houston player, the Astros often knew what Darvish was about to throw by the way he brought the ball into his glove in the set position. (Darvish pitches exclusively out of the stretch.) The player said it worked like this: Darvish holds the ball at his side when he gets the sign from the catcher. Whether he re-grips or not as he brings the ball into his glove was the tip-off whether he was going to throw a slider/cutter or a fastball.

I can buy that. And you know what? I bet any interested teams will have/have had someone on staff go back and look at the video to confirm the pitch tipping. Teams will undoubtedly use the two disaster World Series starts to try to knock Darvish’s price down. It might not work, but they’ll try. At least now there’s an explanation for those two starts against the ‘Stros.

5. Is spending big on a starter over 30 a good idea? Rarely! Darvish is 31 now and he just had his worst MLB season. Yes, it was his first year back from Tommy John surgery, and we should cut him some slack based on that. This is still a pitcher with over 2,100 innings on his arm between Japan an MLB. And his elbow just gave out. Had he not missed the entire 2015 season with Tommy John surgery, Darvish would’ve thrown basically the same number of innings through age 31 as CC Sabathia. These two statements are true:

Darvish is a very good MLB pitcher.
Darvish comes with lots of red flags.

A year or two ago I would’ve said it doesn’t make sense for the Yankees to spend big on an over 30 starter because they weren’t one piece away and needed to focus on getting younger. Now? The young core is in place now and the Yankees might be one piece away. Spending big to get Darvish in an effort to get over the hump is not unreasonable to me. Will the Yankees do it? Who knows. But at some point the potential reward is worth the risk, and the Yankees might be there now.

* * *

As things stand, I would be surprised if the Yankees sign Darvish only because of the luxury tax plan. They’d either have the abandon the luxury tax plan (nope), trade Ellsbury (unlikely), trade some relievers (possible), or trade someone we don’t expect (Sonny Gray?). I don’t really see it. I think the Yankees checked in on Darvish because they check in on everyone, though they remain focused on trading for a cheaper and younger starter they can control for several more years.

2017 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Monday

July 31, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2017 non-waiver trade deadline is now only hours away, not days. The Yankees addressed their fifth starter’s spot yesterday by acquiring Jaime Garcia from the Twins, two weeks after addressing their bullpen by acquiring David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox. They also added a stray Todd Frazier along the way. My hunch is the Yankees are not done.

Over the last few days (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) we learned the Yankees are still looking to add another starting pitcher even after picking up Garcia yesterday. A first baseman and a left-on-left matchup reliever are also on the shopping list, though they aren’t top priorities. We’re going to keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right up until the 4pm ET trade deadline, so keep it locked right here. All timestamps are ET.

3:10pm: Sonny Gray will be a Yankee. It’s Gray and $1.5M in international bonus money for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler, per reports.
2:46pm: A trade! But a small one. The Yankees traded Yefry Ramirez to the Orioles for more international bonus money, the team announced. The deal clears a 40-man roster spot, which could be useful soon.
2:40pm: The latest non-update: the Yankees and A’s are still talking about Gray. [Sherman]
12:11pm: The Athletics are said to be “infatuated” with Mateo, for what it’s worth. [Sherman]
11:55am: Apparently the A’s want 3-4 players beyond the Torres/Frazier tier for Gray. The two sides have agreed to some names but are still haggling about the others. [Heyman]
11:48am: The Yankees and Athletics are gaining traction for a Gray trade, and it now seems more likely than less to happen. [Sherman]
11:42am: The A’s initially wanted a Gleyber Torres/Clint Frazier package for Gray and backed away from that. They then wanted a Jorge Mateo/Estevan Florial package, but the Yankees won’t do that either. Huh. [Sweeny Murti]
11:31am: The Braves’ interest in Gray has cooled, which is good news for the Yankees. One fewer suitor. Right now it seems the Yankees and Dodgers are the only teams on Gray, and the Dodgers seem to be focusing on Darvish. [Sherman]
10:44am: The Yankees checked in with the Padres about Brad Hand yesterday, though it seems it was due diligence more than anything. Plenty of clubs are in on Hand. [Sherman]
10:11am: The Yankees and A’s are “close enough to get over the hump” and complete a Gray trade today. The two sides still need to work some things out first. [Jerry Crasnick]
10:00am: The Yankees and Athletics made “zero progress” yesterday during Sonny Gray trade talks. Apparently the A’s have set their price and the Yankees have made their offer, and that’s where things stand. [Bob Klapisch]
10:00am: The Yankees are still in touch with the Rangers about Yu Darvish, though they’re not making a hard push for him. The Yankees are not included in Darvish’s ten-team no-trade list, for what it’s worth. [Joel Sherman, Jon Heyman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

2017 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Sunday

July 30, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

It’s crunch time. The 2017 non-waiver trade deadline is only a day and a half away now, and already the Yankees have made two big trades and two small trades. They acquired Jaime Garcia from the Twins earlier this morning, in case you missed it. The Yankees have a new fifth starter, something they desperately needed.

On Friday and Saturday we learned the Yankees continue to discuss Sonny Gray with the Athletics, and both Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier are off the table. The two clubs are talking about other prospects now, so that’s good. We’re again going to keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here. Make sure you check back throughout the day. All timestamps are ET.

11:53am: The Yankees and Athletics are “optimistic something can get done” with Gray. Other teams are involved, but the Yankees remain the favorites. [Heyman]
11:23am: Depending who you ask, the Yankees either are or are not involved in the Yu Darvish bidding. I get the feeling they’re not involved, but the Rangers are looping them into the conversation to increase their leverage. [Buster Olney, T.R. Sullivan, Jeff Wilson]
11:00am: The Yankees are still in the mix for another starter even after this morning’s Garcia trade, and Gray remains their top target. “Still could work but hard deal to make,” said one report. [Ken Rosenthal, Jeff Passan]
11:00am: Beyond a starter, the Yankees also have some interest in a first baseman and a left-on-left matchup reliever. I don’t think that’s a big priority though. Their top bullpen righties can get out lefties. [Heyman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

2017 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Friday

July 28, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2017 non-waiver trade deadline is 4pm ET next Monday, and already the Yankees have made one significant trade. They acquired Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox for three prospects (and Tyler Clippard) a week and a half ago. That one has paid dividends already. The Yankees have made two smaller trades (Tyler Webb for Garrett Cooper, Rob Refsnyder for Ryan McBroom) as well.

At the moment the Yankees are a half-game back in the AL East and 2.5 games up on a wildcard spot, so they’re very much in the race. Adding is the way to go. The White Sox trade answered any “buyer or seller?” questions. A starting pitcher is the obvious priority following Michael Pineda’s injury, though another bat and a lefty reliever shouldn’t be ruled out either. We’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here, so keep coming back for updates. All timestamps are ET.

3:44pm: The Yankees had a scout (Brandon Duckworth!) on hand to watch Yu Darvish’s most recent outing, so if nothing else, they’re doing their due diligence. Darvish got hammered by the Marlins on Wednesday night (3.2 IP, 9 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 2 BB, 5 ). [George King]
3:42pm: The Yankees have interest in Lance Lynn and the Cardinals have been scouting New York’s farm system. Lynn is a pure rental. Here’s my Scouting The Market post. [Derrick Goold]
1:41pm: During talks with the Mets about Lucas Duda, the Yankees offered a similar relief prospect to Drew Smith, who the Mets acquired from the Rays in the trade yesterday. I wonder if that means Ben Heller or Jonathan Holder? Either way, since the Yankees were only offering a similar prospect, the Mets opted not to send Duda across town. [Sherman]
12:00pm: Talks with the Athletics about Sonny Gray at an impasse because they’re asking for either Clint Frazier or Gleyber Torres, and the Yankees won’t include them in any deal. Oakland also likes Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, and Estevan Florial. Despite the impasse, the Yankees are still believed to be in the lead for Gray because they’re offering the strongest package. [Jon Heyman, Bob Klapisch]
12:00pm: The Yankees are among the teams in the mix for Tigers lefty Justin Wilson. Tons of teams are after the former Yankee. I’d be surprised if the Yankees go all out to win a bidding war for Wilson after adding Robertson and Kahnle. [Anthony Fenech]
12:00pm: The Yankees remain engaged with the Braves about first baseman Matt Adams, though a starting pitcher remains their priority. Atlanta is playing Freddie Freeman at third base in deference to Adams, which is crazy, but it’s not my problem. [Joel Sherman]
12:00pm: There have been no recent talks with the Cubs about Bryan Mitchell. Chicago has liked him in the past and the Yankees are trying to clear up the back of their 40-man roster, though the two clubs haven’t touched base. [Sherman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Darvish, Gray, First Base, Betances

July 22, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The July 31st non-waiver trade deadline is only nine days away now, and already the Yankees have made their most significant midseason trade in several years. Since … the Bobby Abreu deal? Nothing else comes to mind. Anyway, here are the latest rumors and rumblings.

Rangers gauging interest in Darvish

According to Jeff Passan, the Rangers have started reaching out to teams to gauge interest in staff ace Yu Darvish. Texas is slipping in the standings and out of the postseason race, so with Darvish set to become a free agent after the season, it only makes sense to see what teams will offer. Jerry Crasnick says the Rangers plan to wait as long as possible before making a trade. They want to see whether they can climb back into the race first.

The Yankees are said to be in the market for a starter and Darvish would be, by frickin’ far, the best available pitcher should the Rangers decide to actually trade him. The rental part is the problem. There’s no doubt Darvish would make the Yankees (or any other team) better. I don’t think the Yankees are willing to trade their top prospects — it’ll no doubt take at least one great prospect to nab Darvish — for a rental. The Yankees want to improve their postseason chances this season. The long-term plan still dominates their activity though.

A’s have named their price for Gray

The Athletics have told the Yankees their price for right-hander Sonny Gray, reports Jon Heyman. There’s no word on what that price is, but they’ve named it. The two sides are not close to a deal. Not coincidentally, Matt Kardos says the A’s had director of player personnel Billy Owens scouting Double-A Trenton on Thursday night. Jorge Mateo was in the lineup that night and Domingo Acevedo was on the mound. Hmmm.

“We’re going to stay engaged (with the A’s),” said Brian Cashman to Ethan Sears. Darvish is a better pitcher than Gray on a per-inning basis, though Darvish being a rental and Gray being under team control through 2019 is a huge difference. I think the Yankees would be more willing to trade prospects for the guy they can keep another two seasons, and I don’t think that’s unreasonable at all. That said, I don’t expect the Yankees to budge on their plan to keep their best close-to-MLB prospects. If a Gray deal gets done, it’ll be without those guys.

Yankees still open to adding a first baseman

Although Todd Frazier is now a Yankees, they remain open to adding a first baseman, reports Mark Feinsand. They are content to move forward with a Chase Headley/Garrett Cooper platoon at first base (that is one hell of a sentence), though if an opportunity to acquire an upgrade presents itself, they’ll pounce. Rentals Yonder Alonso and Lucas Duda are the big first base names out there.

Basically no team in baseball needs a first baseman right now, so the Yankees are in position to sit back, wait for the prices to drop as the deadline approaches, then make a move if something makes sense. More than anything, this is a pretty good indication the Yankees have reached their limit with Headley, who can still get on base a bit, but otherwise doesn’t offer enough offensively. He might end up spending the final year of his contract elsewhere next season, even if the Yankees have to pay a chunk of his salary.

Cashman says Betances is staying put

Even before the Yankees acquired David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, there was speculation the club could move Dellin Betances at the trade deadline similar to the Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman trades. Then once Robertson and Kahnle were brought on board, the speculation only increased. Now the Yankees have replacement setup men. Cashman shot all that down though. Here’s what he told MLB Network Radio this week (audio link):

“I have no intention of moving Dellin Betances. He’s a four-time All-Star and he’s a homegrown local guy. He’s as much a part of the solution of where we’re going. I’ve heard the rumblings and speculation out there. I don’t like to really address speculation, but I can tell you that Dellin Betances is not going anywhere.”

Never say never, right? Cashman says he has no intention of moving Betances … until someone puts a juicy offer in front of him. He’ll listen to trade offers for Betances the same way he listens to trade offers for everyone. I truly believe the goal behind the Robertson and Kahnle trade was adding them to Betances in the bullpen, not using them to replace Betances. They want a monster bullpen and, on paper, they have it.

Yankees were in the mix for Garcia

Before the whole non-trade saga with the Twins, the Yankees were pursuing Braves left-hander Jaime Garcia, reports Heyman. No idea if they’re still pursuing him. Here’s my Scouting The Market post. Garcia is boring and unspectacular, though he’s better than Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa, and the Yankees presumably could acquire him on the cheap. His injury history and the fact he’s a rental drives the price down.

Right now, my hunch is the Yankees are not going to make a significant trade for a starting pitcher like Gray. I think they’ll target rentals for the time being, just to get them through the season. They’re going to look for 2014 Brandon McCarthy in 2017, basically. That would be the optimal outcome. I can’t imagine the Yankees are done. You don’t go out and make that trade with the White Sox, then call it a day. The need in the rotation is too great to not get something done.

Mailbag & Poll: Darvish vs. Pineda

February 4, 2012 by Mike 92 Comments

The Rangers introduce pitcher Darvish at a media conference at Rangers Ball Park in Arlington, Texas — (REUTERS/Darrell Byers)

Jesse asks: What are your thoughts on the theory that the reason Cashman did not go all in for Darvish is not because he didn’t like the idea of an imported pitcher, but because there were already rumblings of Pineda in pinstripes?

I’m not sure I buy that. Both Brian Cashman and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik have acknowledged that talks about the Jesus Montero-Michael Pineda trade started at the winter meetings, which was just about a week before Yu Darvish was officially posted. We all knew he was going to posted so it wasn’t some big surprise, it was just a matter of when. The Yankees most likely had made up their mind about whether or not to pursue him well in advance of the meetings and submitting their $15M bid. I can’t imagine it was a spur of the moment thing.

I don’t think their half-hearted attempt to acquire Darvish had to do with anything more than their questions about his ability to succeed in MLB, with a new ball, a new mound, smaller stadiums, better hitters, a five-day rotation, etc. If they had truly wanted him, Pineda wouldn’t have stopped them. Trade talks were still in the early stages back then and weren’t guaranteed to work out, so they could have gone down both paths and determined which was the better fit at a later time. Passing on Darvish because of Pineda could have easily resulted in them getting neither pitcher.

I’d much rather have Darvish and Montero than Pineda and [insert random DH here], but these things don’t happen in a vacuum. It would have taken over $100M to land Darvish, who isn’t a sure thing. Pineda isn’t either, but he’s also making the league minimum and has an above-average MLB season under his belt. Nine-figure Darvish and dirt cheap Montero for the next six years, or dirt cheap Pineda and say a $5M DH for the next five years? I was a big proponent of pursuing Darvish (not my money!) and there’s a lot more upside in option #1, but also substantially more risk because of the money involved. I can understand why the team went with door #2 even if I don’t necessarily agree with it. This calls for a poll…

Which would you rather have?

Updated: Yankees bid $15M for Darvish

January 3, 2012 by Mike 223 Comments

Jan. 3rd: Just for the sake of completeness, here’s an update to let you know that the Yankees bid exactly $15M for Darvish according to Jon Heyman. You can now go back to your regularly scheduling complaining about the pitching staff.

Dec. 22nd: Via Jon Heyman, the Yankees bid somewhere between $15-17M for Darvish. Various reports also indicate that no team was even close to the Rangers, who apparently blew away the field with their $51.7M bid. This whole thing is reminiscent of the Daisuke Matsuzaka bidding, when it was the Red Sox (big gap) everyone else.

Dec. 20th: Via Andrew Marchand, the Yankees bid less than $20M for Yu Darvish. The Rangers won the right-hander’s negotiating rights with a $51.7M bid, so the Yankees weren’t even in the same ballpark. This morning we heard that they submitted their bid with the idea that he could fall into their laps if other clubs were tapped out this late in the winter, but obviously that didn’t happen. Marchand says the Yankees just weren’t sold on how Darvish’s stuff and makeup would translate over from Japan, and I guess you have to be sure if you’re going to invest nine-figures.