NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Gary Sanchez ranks 16th on Keith Law’s updated top 25 prospect list

May 28, 2013 by Mike Axisa 28 Comments

Keith Law posted an updated ranking of the top 25 prospects in the minor leagues today (subs. req’d), with the top spot belonging to Cardinals OF Oscar Taveras. Rangers SS Jurickson Profar was baseball’s top consensus prospect coming into the season, but he is ineligible the updated list because he’s currently in the big leagues. Twins OF Byron Buxton and Red Sox SS Xander Boegarts round out the top three.

C Gary Sanchez, who ranked 18th on Law’s preseason list, climbed two spots to 16th. “Although there’s still some question of whether he will remain a catcher long term, I think he’s going to stay there, as he’s enough of an athlete to become an adequate backstop in time — and his bat will be MVP-caliber for that position,” wrote Law. Sanchez is hitting .271/.345/.475 (131 wRC+) with eight homers in 199 plate appearances for High-A Tampa this year, and he’s in line for a midseason promotion to Double-A Trenton. That is probably a few weeks away. No other Yankee farmhands made the updated top 25.

The CC Sabathia Problem

May 28, 2013 by Mike Axisa 59 Comments

For the first time since signing with the Yankees, CC Sabathia is truly a concern. His last three starts have gotten progressively worse, culminating with Sunday’s seven-run, seven-inning disaster against the Rays. It was the fourth time he allowed four or more runs in his last seven starts, raising his season ERA to 3.96 (4.09 FIP). The eleven homers he’s surrendered are half last season’s total in a little more than one-third of the innings, and the weather hasn’t warmed up much yet. He’s a concern, there’s no sugarcoating it.

“It’s everything,” said Sabathia to Mark Feinsand following Sunday’s game when asked what was wrong. “Not being able to make pitches with two strikes, fastball command. It’s just not being good … I’ve been through bad stretches in my career, but it’s tough. It’s just one of those things where you’ve got to keep working, keep going and believe that you’re going to get better. I’ve just got to make better pitches, do a better job of getting outs pitching to contact and not getting behind in hitter’s counts.”

That’s some fine generic pitcher speak right there, which unfortunately isn’t very helpful. We shouldn’t be surprised by a player declining to explicitly discuss his struggles, however. It’s typical. Sabathia is clearly frustrated though, it’s evident in his body language. Here, just look at his reaction to the Sean Rodriguez homer from Sunday:

When was the last time you saw Sabathia show outward frustration like that? I can’t remember it ever happening, certainly not before this season at least. He’s pitching poorly and it’s starting to wear on him. It’s perfectly normal. We’re talking about one of baseball’s best pitchers over the last half-decade suddenly struggling as much as he has at any time in his career. It’s a shock to the system.

Anecdotally, it seems like hitters are squaring up Sabathia much more often this year, at least compared to his other four years in New York. That isn’t showing up in his line drive rate — 21.8%, which is only a touch higher than last year (21.1%) and his career average (20.3%) — but batted ball data is fickle since it’s subject to score bias. More balls squared up could mean deeper fly balls that are still caught for outs, harder hit ground balls that still go for singles. That’s what it seems like to me, anyway.

Is that problem related to his velocity drop? It very well could be. Fastballs are not independent events — they setup everything else, and for Sabathia that’s his slider and changeup. It’s an awful lot easier to sit back on mid-80s sliders and changeups when the fastball is humming in at 89-91 instead of 93-95. Sabathia hasn’t altered his pitch selection a ton, at least in the sense that he threw 53.9% fastballs last year and 52.0% this year. That’s a small difference. He has thrown more changeups and fewer sliders than last year, but at this point of the season it could just be a sample size thing. Overall, he isn’t throwing more non-fastballs in 2013.

“The only way the velocity (is a problem) is if it’s changing his arm angle because he’s trying to muster or anything else,” said pitching coach Larry Rothschild to Feinsand on Sunday. “I don’t really see that. I think he’s trying to make pitches with what he’s got on a given day and staying within deliveries and trying to execute pitches. Early in the season he had the same velocity and pitched really well. I think it’s just executing pitches a little bit better.”

Command has appeared to be an issue for Sabathia at times this year, but there really isn’t a way to show that statistically. Walk rates and zone rates speak more to control and throwing strikes in general than command, which is throwing quality strikes. Dotting the edges, staying at the knees, pitching to the hole in the hitter’s swing, hitting the mitt, stuff like that. You can always tell when CC is off because his fastball sails up and away to righties, which I suppose could stem from overthrowing and trying to force velocity rather than just letting the ball come out naturally. I haven’t noticed if that is happening more frequently this year, however.

I have no idea what’s wrong with Sabathia. I don’t think it’s as simple is “he lost some velocity and therefore took a big step back in effectiveness,” though. His days of doing anything more than touching 94+ are probably long gone, which is perfectly normal for a 32-year-old pitcher with over 2,700 big league innings on his arm. Adjustments have to be made and that could take time — it took Mike Mussina all of 2007 to reinvent himself, for example — but it’s becoming more and more clear with each start that the Sabathia of old isn’t coming back. Given the offense and the team’s desperate need for strong pitching, the Yankees need those adjustments to come sooner rather than later. Until they come, CC’s performance is a problem.

No-show offense sinks Yankees in Subway Series opener

May 27, 2013 by Mike Axisa 49 Comments

Don’t look now, but the Yankees have suddenly lost four of their last six games. One of the wins took a miracle ninth inning comeback as well. Monday’s 2-1 loss to the Mets was just par for the course, meaning fine pitching but an invisible offense.

No Reward
It sure looks like that seven-run, two-out disaster two weeks ago was just a bump in the road for Phil Hughes. He rebounded to hold the Orioles to two runs in six innings last time out, and on Monday he held an admittedly feeble Mets lineup to one run on four hits in seven innings. Two of those hits were singles by opposing pitcher Jon Niese (!), the other two a David Wright triple to right-center and a David Wright solo homer to left. Phil struck out six and walked zero, throwing first pitch strikes to 17 of 24 batters (71%) and strikes with 68 of 101 pitches (67%).

Unfortunately, the Yankees do not leave their pitchers much margin for error these days, and seven innings of one-run ball is just good enough for a no decision. Hughes has allowed two or fewer runs six times in his last eight starts, yet the Bombers have only won three of those six games. Two runs in almost any number of innings from the starter used to be an auto-win, as recently as last year, but nowadays is just good enough to avoid a loss. Phil did his part, but no one else did.

Eighth Inning Guy
David Robertson picked a bad time for his worst game of the month. He was done in by a bloop ground rule double and a fat middle-middle fastball to Daniel Murphy in a hitter-friendly 3-1 count, but in between he walked the hackstastic Jordany Valdespin — career 5.1 BB% and 32.7% swing rate on pitches out of the zone — while Chris Stewart, Miracle Catcher™ committing a back-breaking passed ball.

It looked like the Yankees would escape the inning unscathed for a while thanks to Robinson Cano, who corralled Ruben Tejada’s hard-hit grounder to second and fired home for the plate at the plate and the second out of the inning. The replays I saw made it look like Stewart applied the tag on Mike Baxter in time, but apparently it was up for debate. Either way, the ump ruled him out and that’s all that matters. Robertson had a rough night, throwing only 14 of 27 pitches for strikes. What can you do.

Brett Saves The Day
Hughes has a homer problem, and it’s no secret. He serves up dingers like the best of ’em, and when the season ends in a few months, his homer total will be one shy of what he actually surrendered on the season. Hughes gave up a two-run homer to Murphy in the bottom of the sixth inning of this game, a line drive rocket to left-center that would not have left the old CitiField dimensions. It wasn’t a homer though. It was an inning-ending fly ball according to box score because Brett Gardner did this:

Most homer-robbing catches involve high fly balls and short-ish fences, when it’s more about timing the jump than anything. That wasn’t most homer-robbing catches. Gardner had to showcase his elite range to get to the wall first, then use his hops to actually go up to catch the ball. There was no downtime there, Brett didn’t have time to sit back and size up the fly ball. It had to happen all at once and he nailed it. That’s an upper-echelon homer-robbing catch there. You won’t find many better.

Leftovers
Had the Mets played competent defensive outfielders in the corners on Monday, the Yankees don’t score a run. Gardner blooped a triple to left and Jayson Nix blooped a single to right in the sixth inning for the team’s only run. Nix’s ball might have been a tough play for any outfielder, but Gardner’s was damn close to routine for non-Lucas Duda-level defenders. They’re line drives in a well-earned run in the box score, of course.

I didn’t have a problem with Joe Girardi not pinch-hitting for Hughes with men on first and second and one out in the seventh. He was cruising and his pitch count had yet to crack 80, and it’s not like the bench was full of viable alternatives. If Phil’s pitch count was higher or if it was an inning later, I would have pinch-hit. The Mets have an awful bullpen though, have to figure even this lineup would get to them at some point.

Nice game for the Miracle Catcher™, who also grounded into an inning-ending double play with the bases loaded in the second in addition to that big passed ball. He singled and had the fewest plate appearances among the eight position players starters in this game, yet still had the worst WPA (-.142). That doesn’t even count the passed ball, which doesn’t exist in WPA land.

Ichiro Suzuki drew a walk with one out in the ninth inning and stayed glued to first, never once attempting to steal. Girardi said afterwards it was a “pretty big risk” to try to take second base with Travis Hafner at the plate, which leaves out the entire Lyle Overbay at-bat earlier in the inning. He’s gotta go right after reaching base. Bobby Parnell is too good and they needed to have to shots to drive him in.

Vernon Wells snapped an 0-for-17 skid with a solid sixth inning single, but his descent to mediocrity continues and has his batting line at a robust .264/.315/.462 (106 wRC+). Every starter except for Hughes had a hit tonight, but Nix was the only one with two. Their nine hits were the definition of scattered.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
For the box score and video highlights, check out MLB.com. For some other stats, check out FanGraphs. For the updated standings, check out ESPN. The Red Sox pounded the Phillies, so they are now tied with the Yankees atop the AL East in the loss column. Boston is technically in first by percentage points. The Orioles also won and are three back in the loss column.

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
Same two teams on Tuesday night for game two of this makeshift four-game series. It’ll be a battle of aces between old Hiroki Kuroda and young Matt Harvey. That figures to be a blast. RAB Tickets is the place to go for last minute ticket deals if you want to head out to Queens to catch the game live.

Austin’s big day carries Thunder to a win

May 27, 2013 by Mike Axisa 13 Comments

Triple-A Scranton (8-0 win over Norfolk)

2B Corban Joseph: 0-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 HBP
RF Thomas Neal: 2-5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K — hitting .355/.459/.484 with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five), but it’s only 37 plate appearances
LF Zoilo Almonte: 3-4, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 CS — 19 hits in his last 47 at-bats (.404), so he’s starting to head up
3B Ronnie Mustelier: 3-5, 2 R, 1 RBI — ten hits in his last 28 at-bats (.357), so he’s starting to come around again
CF Melky Mesa: 0-4, 1 K
RHP Chien-Ming Wang: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 10/8 GB/FB — 48 of 83 pitches were strikes (58%) … pretty close to vintage CMW with all the quick outs, just need a few more grounders and a few less fly balls

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Game 50: Memorial Day

May 27, 2013 by Mike Axisa 741 Comments

Happy Memorial Day everyone, especially those of you in (or close to someone in) the armed forces. The Yankees (and every other team) are wearing those ugly camo uniforms today, which are definitely a step down from the simple colored hats. I actually liked the old timey feel of the white hats from a few years ago, but the rest have been rather disappointing. At least they’re for a great cause.

As for tonight’s actual baseball game, it’s the first of four straight Subway Series games against the Mets. Two in Flushing, then two in the Bronx. I really like the home-and-home setup — Joe Girardi said pre-game he prefers three-game series because then you have a true winner, and he’s got a point — and think it would be pretty cool if they scheduled a two-stadium doubleheader one of these years. I get that those are a nightmare logistically, but it would be fun. The Yankees are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Rays, but they took two of three and have a chance to pile up a few wins against a bad Mets team before the schedule toughens up. Here’s the lineup that will face southpaw Jon Niese…

CF Brett Gardner
SS Jayson Nix
2B Robinson Cano
LF Vernon Wells
3B David Adams
RF Ichiro Suzuki
1B Lyle Overbay
C Chris Stewart
RHP Phil Hughes

It’s a lovely day for baseball in New York, with a nice clear sky and low humidity. The game is scheduled to start a little after 7pm ET and can be seen on both YES and WPIX locally as well as MLB Network nationally. Enjoy.

Injury Updates: Joba Chamberlain (oblique) will be activated tomorrow, though it’s unclear what the corresponding roster move will be (coughDavidHuffcough) … Curtis Granderson (pinky) will see a specialist tomorrow, not today … Mark Teixeira (wrist) and Kevin Youkilis (back) both played five innings in an Extended Spring Training game … Frankie Cervelli (hand) had the pins removed and will continue strengthening exercises.

2013 Draft: Cody Reed

May 27, 2013 by Mike Axisa 2 Comments

The 2013 amateur draft will be held from June 6-8 this year, and between now and then I’m going to highlight some prospects individually rather than lump them together into larger posts.

Reed during a pre-draft workout for the Rangers. (Photo via @Linsey_Hebert)

Cody Reed | LHP

Background
Stemming from the Memphis suburb of Horn Lake, Mississippi, Reed went undrafted both out of high school (2011) and as a freshman out of Northwest Mississippi Community College (2012). He’s a so-called pop-up guy this spring thanks to improved stuff and strong performance — 2.39 ERA with a 96/40 K/BB in 73.1 innings across 12 starts — and he’s committed to attend Ole Miss next year.

Scouting Report
Reed has the goods. He offers size (listed at 6-foot-5 and 220 lbs.), athleticism, fastball velocity (92-95 mph), an out-pitch breaking ball (low-80s curveball), and a clean and repeatable delivery. Reed has worked hard to iron out his mechanics, which feature a long stride and clean arm action, and he’s working on adding a slider and changeup as well. Despite the delivery and added polish, he still struggles to command all his pitches and that’s the biggest negative right now. Reed offers almost everything else otherwise, include a good work ethic. I can’t find any video of him actually pitching, but are some interview clips on YouTube.

Miscellany
Keith Law (subs. req’d) and Baseball America ranked Reed as the 37th and 104th best prospect in the draft in their latest rankings, respectively, so there’s a huge difference in opinions. That’s not surprising considering all the improvement he’s made this spring, it’s natural to remain skeptical. The one thing everyone agrees on is the upside, which lies somewhere between frontline starter and mid-rotation workhorse if he figures out a third pitch and irons out his command. The fallback is a bat-missing lefty specialist. The Yankees haven’t been too active on the JuCo front under Damon Oppenheimer, but Reed isn’t most JuCo prospects. With four day one picks (26th, 32nd 33rd, 66th), they are in a position to gamble if they want.

5/27-5/30 Subway Series Preview

May 27, 2013 by Mike Axisa 8 Comments

With the Astros moving to the AL and interleague play taking place everyday, the Subway Series has a new twist these days. Instead of two three-game series a month apart, the Yankees and Mets will play four games this week — the first two in Flushing, the next two in the Bronx. It’s a pair of back-to-back home-and-home series. I love the setup.

What Have They Done Lately?
The Amazin’s pulled off a Yankees-esque come-from-behind win last night, ending their five-game losing streak. They’ve won just four of their last 16 games and sit in fourth place in the NL West with a 18-29 record and a -42 run differential. They bad.

Offense
Much like the Yankees, the Mets have a below-average offense. They average just 4.0 runs per game with a team 89 wRC+ while the Bombers are at 4.3 and 93, respectively. The difference between the two is basically the DH. As far as position player injuries go, the Mets are perfectly healthy.

The second best second baseman in New York. (Al Bello/Getty)

The conversion about manager Terry Collins’ offense starts with 3B David Wright (143 wRC+), who has again been one of baseball’s elite all-around players. OF Lucas Duda (136 wRC+) and 2B Daniel Murphy (123 wRC+) have been strong supporting players while C John Buck (111 wRC+) has cooled off following his strong start. CF Rick Ankiel (109 wRC+) strikes out a ton (44.9%) but also hits the ball a long, long way (.297 ISO).

The Mets have gotten nothing from SS Ruben Tejada (59 wRC+) and 1B Ike Davis (39 wRC+), though the platoon duo of OF Mike Baxter (82 wRC+ vs. RHP) and OF Marlon Byrd (103 wRC+ vs. LHP) have been better than expected. UTIL Jordany Valdespin (86 wRC+) is the pinch-hitter extraordinaire, C Anthony Recker (58 wRC+) the backup backstop, IF Justin Turner (86 wRC+) the backup infielder, and OF Juan Lagares (30 wRC+) the defensive specialist. Wright, Duda, and Murphy are dangerous, but everyone else can be pitched to.

Starting Pitching Matchups

Monday @ CitiField: RHP Phil Hughes vs. LHP Jon Niese
Niese, 26, broke out last season and was rewarded with his first career Opening Day start this year. Rather than continue to improve, the left-hander has taken a step back in 2013 (4.80 ERA and 4.71 FIP). His strikeout (5.13 K/9 and 12.5 K%) and walk (4.47 BB/9 and 10.9 BB%) rates are both career worsts, though his ground ball rate (55.1%) is a career best. Niese is a true five-pitch pitcher, using upper-80s/low-90s two- and four-seamers as well as a mid-80s cutter to setup his mid-80s changeup and mid-70s curveball. The curve is his bread-and-butter. Niese throws all five pitches at least 10% of the time and four of the five pitches at least 16% of the time. The changeup is the exception. The Yankees faced Niese three times during interleague play these last two years, and he’s handled them well each time. Obviously he was much more effective overall back then.

The ace of New York. (Brian Garfinkel/Getty)

Tuesday @ CitiField: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. RHP Matt Harvey
You’re not going to find a more exciting pitcher right now that the 24-year-old Harvey. The Connecticut native and former seventh overall pick owns a 1.93 ERA (2.45 FIP) in ten starts this year and a 2.30 ERA (2.84 FIP) in 20 big league starts overall. His strikeout (9.51 K/9 and 28.0 K%) and walk (2.19 BB/9 and 6.4 BB%) numbers are outstanding, and his ground ball rate (44.1%) is solid as well. Harvey throws three pitches regularly but lives off his mid-to-high-90s four-seam fastball. His wipeout upper-80s slider and fading mid-80s changeup are both swing-and-miss offerings. A low-80s curveball is his fourth pitch but is still a legit weapon. It’s nasty, nasty stuff. The Yankees have never faced Harvey before; he wasn’t called up until the second half last season.

Wednesday @ Yankee Stadium: RHP David Phelps vs. RHP Jeremy Hefner
When Johan Santana went down with his second torn shoulder capsule, the 27-year-old Hefner took his rotation spot. He’s been pretty bad this year, pitching to a 4.76 ERA (5.25 FIP) in nine starts and one long relief appearance. Hefner’s peripherals aren’t anything special — 6.53 K/9 (17.5 K%), 3.53 BB/9 (9.4 BB%), 1.59 HR/9 (15.5% HR/FB), and 44.2% grounders — which isn’t surprising. The right-hander is another true five-pitch guy, using his upper-80s/low-90s two- and four-seamers basically half the time combined. A mid-80s slider is his top secondary pitch, though he’ll also throw a low-80s changeup and mid-70s curveball. He’s thrown each pitch at least 10% of the time this year. Hefner threw a perfect inning of relief against the Yankees last season, the only time they’ve seen him.

Thursday @ Yankee Stadium: LHP Vidal Nuno vs. RHP Dillon Gee
Gee, 27, hasn’t just been the worst pitcher on the Mets staff this year, he’s been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. He owns a 6.34 ERA (4.93 FIP) in ten starts with not truly awful peripheral stats: 6.70 K/9 (15.9 K%), 3.08 BB/9 (7.3 BB%), 1.45 HR/9 (13.8% HR/FB), and 46.8% grounds. Still, when you allow 36 runs in 49.2 innings, you’ve stunk. Perhaps not coincidentally, Gee has lost about two miles an hour off his two- and four-seam fastballs this year, sitting in the upper-80s instead of the low-90s. A low-80s changeup is his go-to pitch, though he’ll also throw low-80s sliders and mid-70s curveballs. He’s a two-seamer/changeup guy, for the most apart. The Yankees have faced him once in each of the last two seasons and he’s put together solid outings both times. Not great, not terrible. Winnable.

Bullpen Status
Mets GM Sandy Alderson is a bright baseball guy, but his bullpens since taking over three years ago have been just dreadful. The team’s relief unit owns a 4.77 ERA (4.36 FIP) this year, the third worst in MLB. Take away the quietly elite closer RHP Bobby Parnell (2.20 FIP) and it would be a lot worse.

The rest of the bullpen is a mess of has-beens and never-wases. There’s former Yankee RHP LaTroy Hawkins (3.69 FIP) and RHP Brandon Lyon (3.43 FIP) in the former category and RHP Greg Burke (2.05 FIP), oft-used LHP Scott Rice (3.40 FIP), seldom-used LHP Robert Carson (10.18 FIP), and RHP Collin McHugh (10.39 FIP in very limited time) in the latter. Hawkins and Parnell pitched yesterday, but everyone else should be fresh.

Although CC Sabathia got crushed yesterday, he did manage to spare the bullpen by soaking up seven innings. The key late-inning relievers have all had plenty of rest these last few days and are good to go this week. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for exact usage details. For the best Mets analysis, I recommend Amazin’ Avenue. One of the best team-specific blogs in all the land.