Via Erik Boland: Derek Jeter continues to hit in the batting cage and field ground balls in Tampa as he rehabs from left ankle surgery, and he’s expected to begin running when position players report in a few weeks. “I’m right where I need to be,” said the Cap’n. Pitchers and catchers are due to report next Tuesday, but position players don’t have to show up until next Saturday, February 16th. I’m going to be worried about a possible setback until Jeter is completely cleared by doctors, but so far so good.
The other half of the DH platoon
Late last week the Yankees addressed the left-handed half of what will presumably be a DH platoon, signing Travis Hafner to a one-year contract worth $2M. Pronk’s power and on-base ability will be an upgrade over Raul Ibanez’s offensive contributions last year as long as he stays on the field. That part is far from a given thanks to his extensive injury history.
Last season the Yankees employed — or attempted to employ before injuries an other factors interfered — an unorthodox DH platoon that consisted of playing Eduardo Nunez in the field against left-handers while either Derek Jeter or Alex Rodriguez served as the DH. I expect them to try a similar arrangement in 2013, but obviously the pieces will change. A-Rod is going to miss at least half the season due to his hip surgery, leaving Jeter and Kevin Youkilis as the infielders most of need of regular rest.
In addition to being 38-years-old, Jeter is coming off a major ankle injury that required surgery. He recently resumed baseball activities and right now it appears as though he’ll be ready in time for Opening Day. Even if he is healthy and ready to go when the season begins, I still expect Joe Girardi to give him regular turns at DH just to ease him back into things following the ankle fracture. Girardi is always conservative when it comes to injuries and it makes complete sense to take it easy on the Cap’n in April. Youkilis is no stranger to the DL and he will need his fair share of DH days, but hopefully not as many as Jeter early in the season.
The question about who replaces Jeter or Youkilis in the field on those DH days is unanswered. Despite the club’s insistence that he is most valuable at shortstop (duh), Brian Cashman recently said they would convert Nunez back into a utility infielder if he makes the team out of Spring Training. The other option is Jayson Nix, who did an admirable job off the bench last summer as the primary utility infielder following Eduardo’s defense-related demotion. David Adams and Corban Joseph could receive consideration for the job, but their inability to play shortstop works against them.
Jason Bartlett is pretty much the only notable infielder left on the free agent market who can legitimately play shortstop, so it sure looks like it will be Nix or Nunez subbing in against lefties while Jeter or Youkilis spends the day at DH. Nix, 30, is steady but unspectacular in the field and below-average but adequate at the plate. The 25-year-old Nunez offers much more exciting tools in his speed, contact ability, and arm strength, but he’s a big liability in the field. He has little trouble getting to balls and offers more range than Nix, but obviously he has major issues finishing the play. If the Yankees want reliability, they’ll take Nix. If they want some upside, they’ll take Nunez. There’s not much point in arguing strongly either way right now.
Assuming the Yankees carry a right-handed hitting outfielder on the bench to platoon with their various left-handed hitting outfielders, they have three bench spots left to fill. One will go to the backup catcher, so it’s really two spots. Given the weak catching tandem, I would really like to see the team carry a good left-handed bat on the bench so Girardi could pinch-hit liberally in the late-innings. Dan Johnson, who can play the corner infield spots in a pinch, could make sense for that role. It’s a job that Eric Chavez would have filled perfectly, but alas. Given how unlikely the team’s catchers (whoever they end up being) are to hit, I think having that dangerous lefty pinch-hitter is more of a necessity than a luxury.
If the Yankees do carry such a player, they’re left with one bench spot for a utility infielder. That guy will have to be able to play shortstop and play it fairly regularly, I’m thinking two or three times a week until Jeter settles in following the surgery. Not only that, but he has to be able to run for inevitable pinch-running situations. I think Nunez is a better bet to do that than Nix, but his defense stinks. At the same time, the more at-bats Nix receives, the more his production is likely to go down. He’s the type of guy who gets exposed with too much playing time. There is a scenario in which the Yankees could carry both on their bench at the start of the season, but they would be short-changing themselves elsewhere.
2013 Yankees ZiPS Projections
Dan Szymborski released his 2013 Yankees ZiPS projections this morning, and the graphic above shows rounded WAR projections for the team’s key players. You can click the image for a larger view, but the smaller version seems legible enough to me and my eyes are terrible. Either way, the option is there for you.
Anywho, the totals in the graphic add up to 40 WAR, putting the team’s projected finish somewhere in the 87-89 win range. That definitely passes the sniff test and seems very reasonable to me, but unfortunately it’s probably not enough to qualify for the postseason (even as the second wildcard). In case you’re wondering, ZiPS projected the Yankees as a 95-win team last season and they wound up winning … 95 games. How about that.
You can click the link to look at the projected stat lines (and player comparisons!) for everyone on the roster as well as more than a handful of prospects. ZiPS believes Gary Sanchez could manage a .230/.277/.411 (.298 wOBA) batting line (nice ISO!) if the Yankees stuck him in the big leagues right now, which is the best projected offense from the team’s catchers, sadly. The system has Austin Romine (.289 wOBA), Bobby Wilson (.279), Chris Stewart (.278), and Frankie Cervelli (.274) as well-below-average producers. Yikes.
Brett Gardner has been worth roughly 5 WAR per 150 games in his career thanks to his defense, and the 2 WAR projection has more to do with playing time (342 plate appearances) than performance decline (.259/.355/.362, .327 wOBA). If he manages to stay healthy all year — something that is not a given, obviously — he could get the team from 88 wins to 90 wins all by himself. ZiPS sees the starting outfield combining for 46 total homers, or three more than Curtis Granderson hit by himself last summer. Juan Rivera has the best projection (.307 wOBA) of the complementary right-handed bat options.
The Yankees added only two new position players this winter, Kevin Youkilis and Travis Hafner. ZiPS has Youkilis at .256/.360/.464 (.355 wOBA) with 20 homers in 475 plate appearances while Pronk checks in at .258/.351/.452 (.342 wOBA) with 13 homers in 322 plate appearances. I’d be very happy with those slash lines for both players, but my fingers will be crossed in hopes of keeping them healthy. Dan Johnson is a little further behind at .235/.332/.409 (.320 wOBA).
On the pitching side, only CC Sabathia (202.1) and Hiroki Kuroda (186) project to throw more than 170 innings. Sabathia is the only starter with a projected sub-4.00 ERA at 3.60, but Andy Pettitte comes pretty close (4.08 ERA). ZiPS doesn’t see Phil Hughes having a big contract year (4.73 ERA in 156 IP) nor does it see a big rebound from Ivan Nova (4.86 ERA in 167 IP). The system has Michael Pineda pegged for a 4.43 ERA (4.29 FIP) in 120 post-shoulder surgery innings, which is just a touch worse than league average. I’d be pretty encouraged by that kind of performance heading into 2014.
I guess I should stick the standard disclaimer here: projections are not predictions, they’re an attempt to measure a player’s true talent level. ZiPS is not saying Robinson Cano will post a .368 wOBA next year, just that he’s capable of doing so. Injury, good or bad luck, all sorts of stuff will impact his actual performance. The Blue Jays currently project for 92-94 wins while the Rays are at 88-90 wins, so the Yankees are looking at a fight for second place at the moment. Red Sox and Orioles projections are forthcoming. That said, I do think the division will be a lot tighter than expected. The ugly ALCS exit seems to have everyone way down on the Yankees.
Yankees rank tenth in Keith Law’s farm system rankings
Keith Law released his 2013 farm system rankings today (subs. req’d), which are predictably topped by the Cardinals. They have Oscar Taveras, a ton of MLB-ready power arms, and quality depth coming out of their ears. The Twins and Rays round out the top three while the Angels bring up the rear at #30. The Yankees rank tenth.
“It’s a top-heavy system, but the group of position players who started in low Class A Charleston last year, some of whom finished in high-A Tampa, could produce as many as three above-average or better regulars plus several other guys who’ll have big league value,” wrote Law while also saying they’d rank higher had Manny Banuelos and Jose Campos not gotten hurt. Baseball America had the Yankees ranked 11th while John Sickels had them 14th, so the consensus right now is that 10-15 range. Tampa was the only AL East team ahead of New York, with the Orioles (13th), Red Sox (17th), and Blue Jays (24th) lagging behind.
Fan Confidence Poll: February 4th, 2013
2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS
Top stories from last week:
- The biggest story of the week, by far, was Alex Rodriguez’s inclusion in a report regarding a South Florida performance-enhancing drug peddler. MLB is performing an investigation and the Yankees will not comment until that is complete.
- Meanwhile, the Yankees added a new left-handed hitting DH, signing Travis Hafner to a one-year contract worth $2M plus incentives. New York also signed Juan Rivera to a minor league contract, and they continue to seek a right-handed hitting outfielder. Russ Canzler was designated for assignment to clear room on the roster for Hafner.
- Injury News: Michael Pineda (shoulder) threw off a half-mound for the first time since surgery last May. Derek Jeter (ankle) resumed baseball activities down in Tampa.
- The Yankees announced their Spring Training invitees, which include top prospects Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, and Tyler Austin. Sanchez, Austin, and Mason Williams made MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects List.
- Andy Pettitte will not pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic in a few weeks.
- Michael Kay signed a new multi-year contract with the YES Network.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Super Bowl XLVII Open Thread
The Ravens and 49ers will meet in Super Bowl XLVII (that’s 47) tonight at 6:30pm ET on CBS, and my official prediction is a 24-20 win for San Francisco. No particular reason, it’s a complete guess on my part. My football knowledge is pretty limited; it would be generous to call me a casual fan. I enjoy watching football because I have little rooting interest and it’s nice to just sit back and enjoy a sport once in a while.
Anyway, talk about the big game (and the commercials!) or anything else right here. There are no hockey or basketball games being played and no other network is stupid enough to broadcast new shows tonight. It’s Super Bowl or bust. Enjoy.
Minor League Signings: Perez, Romanski, Smith
Got a quartet of minor league signings to pass along. None of these guys have a realistic chance of making the big league team anytime soon, so they’re just depth guys to help fill out the affiliates’ rosters. Everything comes from Matt Eddy…
- RHP Kelvin Perez: The Yankees re-signed the 27-year-old right-hander, who posted a 1.14 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 74.1 relief innings for Double-A Trenton last season before making a brief late-season cameo with Triple-A Empire State. Walks have long been his bugaboo (career 3.9 BB/9 and 10.0 BB%). He has the best chance of eventually helping the big league club of anyone in this post.
- LHP Josh Romanski: Like Perez, Romanski re-signed with the team after spending most of last season with Double-A Trenton. The 26-year-old managed a 4.97 ERA (3.75 FIP) in 29 innings across three starts and nine relief appearances. He missed a bunch of time due to injury.
- RHP Chris Smith: The Yankees signed Smith, 24, out of the independent Frontier League. He pitched to a 2.92 ERA with 116 strikeouts and 50 walks in 129.1 innings across 19 starts with the Washington Wild Things last summer. Josh Norris spoke to a scout who said he’s a command and control guy who lives in the high-80s.
- SS Leugim Barrosco: Another indy baller, the 27-year-old Barrosco hit .317/.345/.364 with 14 steals in 91 games last season. They signed him away from the Rio Grande Valley White Wings of the North American League. Barrosco was born in Cuba and the most interesting thing about him is that his name is Miguel spelled backwards.