River Avenue Blues

Notes from Girardi’s press conference

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Not from today, but basically the same thing. (Seth Wenig / AP Photo)

All 30 managers meet with the media for 30-ish minutes during the Winter Meetings, and Joe Girardi held his Q&A session late this afternoon. It’s pretty typical of Yankees people to speak a lot of words but not actually say much, and this was no different. I don’t have the audio to share because the quality is awful, but here’s a recap…

On Alex Rodriguez’s injury

  • Girardi confirmed what Brian Cashman said yesterday, that A-Rod didn’t say anything about his hip until being pinch-hit for in Game Three of the ALCS. “His hips weren’t firing right. It wasn’t pain but he felt it was not the explosiveness … I was somewhat worried because he’d been through it on his right hip and you’d think he’d know what the feeling was like. It wasn’t firing the way he thought.”
  • A-Rod went for an MRI on his right hip after the game, and when it came back clean Girardi kept playing him. He did acknowledge Alex “did look different than he did before he got hurt.” The team doesn’t know exactly when the injury happened.
  • On losing A-Rod for the first half of next year: “It’s big. You go into an offseason and you feel you have to address certain areas and all of a sudden you get a little bit of a surprise. It’s a pretty big hole to fill, and it may not necessarily be (filled) with one person.”
  • “I’m not sure,” said the skipper when asked about any tension in his relationship with A-Rod. “It probably answers a lot of questions — he wasn’t the Alex we saw before the injury. Now we have a reason, possibly why.”

[Read more…]

Open Thread: Day Two from Nashville

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Day Two of the Winter Meeting is (almost) in the books, and the Yankees have yet to do anything fancy other than confirm Alex Rodriguez’s new hip injury. Not exactly what we were all hoping for, I assume. Here’s a look back at today’s rumors in case you missed some of them. Seems like the Yankees have officially shifted their focus towards finding a new third baseman.

Anyway, here is your open thread for the evening. The Nets are playing and that’s pretty much it. Talk about whatever here, enjoy.

Report: Yankees have insurance for most of A-Rod’s deal

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Via Ken Rosenthal & Wally Matthews: The Yankees are insured for at least 70% and possibly even 100% of Alex Rodriguez’s contract should his latest hip injury be so severe that he’s unable to play going forward. There are conditions that would have to be met (so many days on the DL, etc.) before the insurance payouts are triggered.

A-Rod, 37, is still owed $114M over the next five years. I doubt this new injury is that debilitating — Brian Cashman said doctors informed him Alex would have zero restrictions following the procedure and rehab — but I guess it’s good to know the team is covered in case it is. A-Rod would still get paid and his salary would still count against the luxury tax, so the only way the insurance money would be reinvested in the team would be if the Yankees increase payroll back over the luxury tax threshold in 2015.

The Perfect Offseason Storm

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Offseason surgery for three of the most important players on the team? Check.

A free agent class short on players who adequately fill the team’s needs? Also check.

Ownership mandating a payroll reduction in the near future? Another check.

One-year contracts only? Here’s your likely 2013 right fielder. (REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine)

While re-signing the veteran trio of Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera to one-year contracts solves most of the team’s pitching issues, the Yankees have a long hill to climb on the position player side. Russell Martin has already left for the Pirates and Nick Swisher will soon sign with another team while the Bombers give him a little “thanks for the last four years” pat on the behind but not a contract offer. The Yankees are open to discussing Curtis Granderson in trades, though if he’d done what he’s done the last two seasons with say, the Twins, we’d be talking about him as a buy-low bounceback candidate.

Thanks in part to the draft and international free agent spending limits implemented by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement as well as lucrative new national television deals, teams have more money to spend than ever before these days. With no way to funnel it towards amateur players, all of that money is going to big league free agents this offseason. Hence a four-year contract (!) for Angel Pagan and a $5.5M guarantee for a 31-year-old Phil Hughes clone (Scott Baker) who didn’t throw a single pitch last season. It’s a good time to be a free agent, even a mediocre one.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are intentionally scaling back their payroll in an effort to save luxury tax and revenue sharing dollars in 2014. Although they could spend as much as they want (or are able to, really) in 2013, the team is fixated on one-year contracts to save those precious future dollars. One-year contracts are great in theory, but they limit the team’s market severely. The Yankees are basically stuck digging through assorted veterans trying to hang on and guys coming off injury looking to rebuild value. The one-year gems like Kuroda are the exception, not the rule.

Moreso than at any other point in the last … I don’t know, 15 years? … the Yankees have questions at more of the nine offensive positions than not. We have no idea who will play right field, no idea who will play catcher, no idea who will DH, and no idea how much Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez will be able to contribute following offseason surgery for significant injuries. These questions coincide with a plan to reduce spending while other teams are increasing their spending. The financial advantage the Yankees have enjoyed basically since the advent of free agency has been willfully eliminated at what might be the worst possible time. More questions than answers and limited solutions.

Scouting The Free Agent Market: Mark Reynolds

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(Greg Fiume/Getty)

The offseason dynamic has changed quite a bit for the Yankees over the last 24 hours. They went from trying to dig up a utility infielder who could play 100 combined games between short and third next season to absolutely needing an infielder because Alex Rodriguez will have another hip surgery next month. The injury creates two holes as the Yankees lost their starting third baseman and primary source of right-handed power for potentially the entire first half.

The free agent market is light on quality third basemen and the trade market isn’t much better, so the Yankees are stuck picking from imperfect solutions. We know they don’t consider Kevin Youkilis, Placido Polanco, Ty Wigginton, and Marco Scutaro everyday options at the hot corner, narrowing the field of potential options even further. There’s always Eric Chavez, who played very well last season but doesn’t solve the right-handed power problem and is far from a safe bet to remain healthy. Eduardo Nunez is not an option and playing Jayson Nix everyday has Cody Ransom 2.0 written all over it.

The best free agent option may be a player who wasn’t even a free agent five days ago. The Orioles non-tendered Mark Reynolds last Friday after first declining his $11M club option for 2013. He remained under team control as an arbitration-eligible player, but the club decided to cut ties rather than pay a projected $8.9M salary. At 29 years old, Reynolds is one of the few free agents on the right side of 30. Let’s see if the former Diamondback is a fit for New York’s new needs.

The Pros

  • Reynolds has some of the biggest right-handed power in the game. He joins Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Ryan Braun as the only righties to hit at least 23 homers in each of the last five seasons, and over the last three years he owns 92 homers and a .236 ISO. Those rank 12th and 14th in baseball regardless of handedness. Yankee Stadium usually doesn’t mix well with dead pull right-handed hitters, but Reynolds has the kind of power that will play anywhere.
  • In addition to that power comes a whole lot of patience. Reynolds has drawn at least 70 walks in four straight seasons and his 13.2% walk rate over the last three years is the 14th highest in baseball. His average of 4.26 pitches per plate appearances since 2010 is Nick Swisher, Joe Mauer, and Youkilis territory.
  • Guys like Reynolds are easy to typecast as platoon bats, but over the last three seasons he’s posted a .238 ISO with a 116 wRC+ against lefties to go along with a .236 ISO and 104 wRC+ against righties. He can play against everyone.
  • Reynolds has been on the DL once as a big leaguer, missing a little more than two weeks with an oblique strain this season. Prior to that he had been good for 145-155 games played per year every year.

The Cons

  • All of that power and patience comes with a lot of strikeouts. Like a historic amount of strikeouts. Reynolds holds three of the five highest single-season strikeout totals in baseball history and has whiffed in 32.3% of his plate appearances over the last three years. Only Adam Dunn has been worse. If there’s anything good to note here, it’s that his strikeout rate has declined in each of the last two seasons, relatively speaking.
  • Reynolds is a big time fly ball hitter (36.1% grounders since 2010), hence the power production, but fly balls also turn into outs rather easily. As a result, he owns a meager .268 BABIP and .213 AVG over the last three years. Over the last two seasons it’s a more palatable but still awful .221.
  • His best position is probably DH, though he has shown the ability to fake first base these last two years. The various defensive stats rate Reynolds as well-below-average at the hot corner, as in 10 runs or more below-average annually. That’s Johnny Damon in left field bad.

Reynolds has the kind of power and patience the Yankees crave, and the fact that he swings from the right side and doesn’t need a platoon partner fits well with a lineup that is all but devoid of right-handed threats at the moment. He doesn’t hit for average though, which is a problem. A team can live with one low-average, high-walks, high-power hitter in the lineup, but the Yankees already have Curtis Granderson on the roster and squeezing two hitters like that into the regular lineup is less than ideal. Then again, the team is listening to offers for Granderson.

Given the dearth of power hitters and corner infielders on the free agent market, I do wonder if some team will step in and offer Reynolds a two-year contract. He figures to sign for less than the $8.9M the Orioles declined to offer him, but given how the market has played out so far I wouldn’t be completely surprised if some team floats a two-year, $12M offer. Something like that. The Yankees are fixated on one-year contracts and two years for a guy like Reynolds isn’t very advisable anyway.

The real question is whether he can actually man the hot corner on a regular enough basis to be a worthwhile pickup. He doesn’t need a traditional right/left platoon partner, but maybe a third base/DH platoon partner. The Yankees could bring back Chavez and have him and Reynolds split the load at the hot corner while the other plays DH on a given day. It sounds great in theory but is much tougher to actually pull off on the field. The Yankees are losing a considerable amount of offense this winter though, and Reynolds is one of the few available players who can make a real impact with the bat thanks to his power. Again, imperfect solutions.

Not So Baseless Speculation: Asdrubal Cabrera

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(Bob Levey/Getty)

Here’s a nugget from Paul Hoynes, Indians beat writer extraordinaire for The Cleveland Plain-Dealer…

The going price on [shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera] is three to four players, preferably four. The Indians had the framework of a deal in place in which they would have received one big-league pitcher and two high-level prospects. When the Indians asked for a third prospect, the deal dissolved.

The particular team the Indians were negotiating with planned to change Cabrera’s position, but right now he’s the top shortstop available this winter through free agency or trades.

Tell me that doesn’t have the Yankees written all over it. One big league pitcher? Take your pick of Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, and David Phelps. Two high-level prospects? Pick two, though I’m not sure if “high-level” means top prospects or guys who played at Double-A and Triple-A. Asking Cabrera to change positions? Makes sense now that Alex Rodriguez will miss the start of next season. Could be a coincidence, but the glove sure does fit.

Cabrera, 27, has hit a solid .272/.335/.443 (116 wRC+) with 41 homers over the last two seasons. He’s a switch-hitter with no platoon split (115 wRC+ vs. RHP and 117 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2011) and depending on your choice of defensive metric, he’s either a slightly-above-average (DRS and FRAA) or well-below-average defender (UZR) at short with minimal experience at the hot corner (four defensive outs in 2007). The Indians signed him to a short-term extension this past April, and he’s owned $6.5M next year and $10M the year after ($8.25M average annual value for luxury tax purposes) before qualifying for free agency. With A-Rod out and Nick Swisher’s and Russell Martin’s offense unlikely to be fully replaced, it’s easy to see why the Yankees would have pursued Cabrera to the point where they were on the verge of a deal.

Just to be clear, this is total speculation. Hoynes reported the Indians had a deal in place that fell through, and I’m just connecting the dots. Given the number of teams that need a shortstop and could offer a similar package (the Rays, Red Sox, Athletics, Cardinals, and Diamondbacks), it’s the part about asking Cabrera to change positions that sticks out. That said, the Dodgers are reportedly committed to Hanley Ramirez at short and could have interest in Asdrubal as a third baseman. The Phillies could want him at the hot corner as well. Even if the team in the rumor was not the Yankees, Cabrera is a player they should look into acquiring since seems the price reasonable (at least to me).