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2015 Winter Meetings Open Thread: Thursday

December 10, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

The final day of the 2015 Winter Meetings is upon us, thankfully. I’m really for them to be over. The Rule 5 Draft will take place at 10am ET this morning and the Yankees will lose outfielder Jake Cave, in all likelihood. Maybe some others. There are some rumblings New York will make a pick of their own. They do have two open 40-man roster spots.

Here are Monday’s, Tuesday’s, and Wednesday’s open threads. Thursday is typically the slowest day of the Winter Meetings — most folks head home after the Rule 5 Draft — but I’m sure there will still be plenty of news and rumors out of Nashville. We’ll keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here. All time stamps are ET.

10:00am: Following yesterday’s trade, Brian Cashman told reporters he’s not done making moves yet. “I’m also not done. I’ve got a lot of other conversations in play and we’ll see where that takes me,” said the GM. I mean, duh. It’s December 10th. Of course he’s not done. [Peter Caldera]
10:00am: The Yankees are among the teams to check in on Rafael Soriano. Soriano, 35, threw 5.2 ineffective innings for the Cubs this year and was released at midseason. At this point of his career, Soriano’s a non-roster invite guy, not someone you guarantee a roster spot. [Jon Heyman]
10:00am: The Yankees have their eyes on Astros lefty Reymin Guduan, Astros righty Chris Devenski, and Cardinals righty Luis Perdomo in the Rule 5 Draft. Guduan is a lock to be selected today because he’s a southpaw who throws 100 mph on the regular. [George King]
10:26am: The Dodgers have moved on from Aroldis Chapman, understandably so, and they’re now “weighing” a run at Andrew Miller. With Ken Giles traded and Chapman persona non grata, Miller is by far the best available reliever on the market. [Jon Heyman]
10:31am: The Twins were one of the other teams after Justin Wilson prior to yesterday’s trade. If they’re looking a lefty reliever, the Yankees still have plenty to offer. [LaVelle Neal]
12:18pm: Cashman said he considers the bullpen and the roster in general “incomplete.” I’d say. “I’m intending to do more,” he added. [Bryan Hoch, Brendan Kuty]
12:45pm: The Astros worked “extensively” on an Andrew Miller trade with the Yankees before turning to Giles. They gave up a pretty nice package of players for Giles. The Yankees really seem to be asking a ton for Miller. [Buster Olney]
2:45pm: Talks between the Yankees and Dodgers about Andrew Miller have “no legs.” The Yankees continue to see a good young starter in return and Los Angeles doesn’t have one of those to offer. [Jon Heyman]

(Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.)

Thoughts following the Justin Wilson trade

December 10, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees completed their second trade in as many days last night. One day after acquiring Starlin Castro from the Cubs, the Yankees sent left-hander Justin Wilson to the Tigers for minor league righties Luis Cessa and Chad Green. Time for some more thoughts.

1. From what I can tell, no one felt comfortable with Wilson on the mound because he walked too many guys, and now no one likes that he has been traded away. Which is it? The Yankees have been very good at building bullpens the last few years. I trust them completely here. Wilson was pretty great this past season but the Yankees also may have just sold high, since dudes who throw hard but have career long control issues flame out all the time. I like Wilson. Lefties who throw hard and strike guys out are really cool. But based on the reaction, he went from being a pretty good seventh inning guy with the Yankees to being Billy Wagner as soon as he was traded away. The deal was fine. Geez.

2. That said, the Yankees are going to have to make up for the innings they traded away in Wilson and Adam Warren. They’ve been good at building bullpens but now they have to … you know … do it. They can’t just wave the magic bullpen wand and turn Jacob Lindgren and Branden Pinder into late-inning weapons. Wilson and Warren soaked up some pretty important innings last season — especially since no one in the rotation pitches deep into games consistently — and they’ll be missed, Warren in particular. The Yankees are clearly comfortable with their bullpen depth if they traded away these two. They believe they have the replacements either already in house or they’re readily available. Now they just have to figure out who they are, and that takes some time. Remember, the Opening Day bullpen always looks quite a bit different than the bullpen on August 31st.

3. I don’t think the Wilson trade takes Andrew Miller off the table and it shouldn’t. Miller has a ton of value — did you see that Ken Giles trade? geez — and if a team offers a young starter plus other stuff, are the Yankees really going to say “no thanks, but we already traded Wilson”? Nope. Not happening. I do wonder if Cessa and/or Green — two Triple-A starters, remember, they’re upper level depth — could be flipped as part of another trade, though Brian Cashman indicated last night nothing is lined up. The Yankees do need the depth though. Right now Ivan Nova is the sixth starter and Bryan Mitchell is the seventh starter. They needed some more bodies to compete with Mitchell there, and to provide a buffer between the big leagues and the Brady Lails and Rookie Davises of the world. The trade addressed a clear need.

4. I do think it’s interesting — and not a coincidence — the Yankees traded Wilson, Warren, and David Phelps right as they were about to get expensive through arbitration. “Expensive” is a relative term here: Wilson was only projected to make $1.3M next year while Warren was projected for $1.5M. It’s not that the Yankees are being cheap — they just took on $40M or so in Castro, you know — it just seems like they’ve decided they’re not going to pay much more than the league minimum for non-elite relievers. Maybe that only applies to certain relievers. Warren’s more valuable than most because he can start, but Phelps and Wilson? Eh. Given the internal options, the extra million bucks might not be worth it. It’s tough to nitpick the strategy when the Yankees have been so good at building reliable bullpens. If there’s some sort of payroll limit in place — and there very clearly is — the bullpen is a good place to save.

5. Everyone is trying to copy the so-called Royals model and have a lockdown bullpen — as if the Royals are the first team to realize a great bullpen is a nice thing to have — so much so that I feel like the rest of the roster is being overlooked. The end of the game is really important! But the first six or seven innings are more important. After all, bullpen usage is determined by the game situation, not the other way around. As long as the Yankees have Miller and Dellin Betances, the bullpen will be formidable. It’s the rest of the roster I worry about. Those first six or seven innings. The rotation still has a ton of health concerns and the offense is, well, kinda sketchy. It’s a boom or bust offense. Hopefully the Yankees spend more time improving the beginning of the game and not worry so much about the end.

Yankees trade Justin Wilson to Tigers for two prospects

December 9, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees have traded a left-handed reliever, just not the one who’s been in all the rumors the last few weeks. New York has shipped Justin Wilson to the Tigers for right-handed pitching prospects Luis Cessa and Chad Green, the team announced. Cessa and Green rank 6th and 19th on MLB.com’s top 30 Tigers prospects list. Cessa is on the 40-man roster. Green isn’t.

Earlier today Brian Cashman confirmed he was listening to offers for both Wilson and Andrew Miller, the latter of whom has been in trade rumors all offseason. “If we are willing to discuss Andrew Miller, we are willing to discuss Justin Wilson,” he said. I would not assume Miller is now off limits just because Wilson’s gone. The Yankees could get a major haul for Miller and it would silly to take him off the table.

Wilson, 28, had a 3.10 ERA (2.69 FIP) in 61 innings in 2015, his only season with the Yankees after coming over from the Pirates in the Francisco Cervelli trade. He emerged as Joe Girardi’s seventh inning guy and proved he could retire both righties and lefties, so he wasn’t just a left-on-left matchup guy. Wilson is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is projected to earn $1.3M next year.

The 23-year-old Cessa was one of the prospects the Mets traded to the Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline. He had a 2.56 ERA (2.69 FIP) in 77.1 Double-A innings this year, then got hammered to the tune of a 6.97 ERA (3.57 FIP) in 62 Triple-A innings. Cessa had a 19.6% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate in 139.1 total innings. Here’s a piece of MLB.com’s scouting report:

As a former middle infielder, Cessa brings excellent athleticism to the mound. He also brings a solid three-pitch mix. His fastball will sit at 93 mph, and he’ll touch 95 mph on occasion. His breaking ball is a bit slurvy but has shown improvement, and he has the makings of a Major League average changeup. More than anything, he throws a ton of strikes, proof of which comes in his career 1.8 walks-per-nine ratio heading into 2015.

Green, 24, had a 3.93 ERA (3.22 FIP) with a 20.9% strikeout and a 6.6% walk rate in 148.2 innings this summer, all at Double-A. He was Detroit’s 11th round pick in the 2013 draft. MLB.com says he “used a combination of a very good fastball and outstanding command to outsmart hitters at that level.” Green has a low-90s sinker as well as a slider and changeup. I’d guess both he and Cessa will start 2016 in Triple-A, though they could be flipped elsewhere.

Losing Wilson is a blow to the bullpen, but, if there’s one thing the Yankees are able to do consistently these days, it’s churn out a quality relief crew. This trade could mean Jacob Lindgren (or James Pazos) will get a chance to assume a regular role next season. Lots of offseason left and the Yankees have a whole lot of interesting young relievers on the 40-man roster. We’ll see what happens.

2015 Winter Meetings Open Thread: Wednesday

December 9, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

After a long day with few rumors, the Yankees swung a trade last night, sending Adam Warren and a player to be named later (Brendan Ryan) to the Cubs for Starlin Castro. It didn’t come out of nowhere like so many other Yankees’ deals, but it did come together pretty quick. It went from rumor to trade within an hour or so. The on-the-fly rebuild continues.

“It isn’t part of our DNA to accept that full-blown commitment to a rebuild,” said Brian Cashman to Bryan Hoch. “Ownership’s comfort level is walking that tightrope, rather than tearing it down and living to fight another day. The public stated goal is to get younger and compete for the championship every year. That’s what we’re trying to do.”

Here are Monday’s and Tuesday’s open threads. Once again, we’ll keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related hot stove rumors from the Winter Meetings right here in this post. All time stamps are ET.

10:30am: Following the trade yesterday, Cashman confirmed the Cubs asked about Brett Gardner early in the Starlin Castro trade talks, but that wasn’t happening. He also said Luis Severino, Greg Bird, and Aaron Judge have not been offered in any deals this offseason. [Joel Sherman, Tyler Kepner]
10:30am: “Hopefully I can do some things to add to our depth,” said Cashman, specifically about the pitching staff. He did not rule out free agents but did acknowledge trades are more likely. “I’ve been busiest on the trade front … If it’s old and expensive, we did not check on that.” [Erik Boland, Marly Rivera, Mark Feinsand]
10:30am: Tyler Flowers, who was connected to the Yankees earlier this week, signed a two-year deal with the Braves yesterday. Cashman also confirmed they did check in with Ben Zobrist earlier this week, though his first choice was the Cubs. [Bob Nightengale, Ken Davidoff]
10:30am: The Yankees have shown an interest in Astros righty Vincent Velasquez. Houston has interest in Andrew Miller and Velasquez could be part of the package. However, there’s some thought the Yankees would flip Velasquez to the Marlins for Marcell Ozuna. [George King]
10:30am: Several teams have called about Justin Wilson, including the Tigers. Hey, if Miller is available, there’s no reason Wilson shouldn’t be as well. Whether the Yankees are comfortable trading both end game lefties is another matter. [George King]
10:42am: Brett Gardner remains available but nothing is close at the moment. Nothing’s changed after the Castro pickup. [Jon Heyman]
12:47pm: The Yankees are talking to the Dodgers and Astros about Andrew Miller. Houston’s been on Miller for a while now, and the Dodgers lost out on Aroldis Chapman earlier this week. In terms of performance plus contract, Miller is by frickin’ far the best available reliever right now. [Bob Nightengale]
2:17pm: The Yankees did circle back and ask the D’Backs if they still had interest in Andrew Miller following their recent Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller pickups. Arizona seems to be in a very generous mood, so why not ask? They had interest in Miller earlier this offseason. [Joel Sherman]
5:21pm: As expected, Cashman confirmed Justin Wilson is indeed available. “If we are willing to discuss Andrew Miller, we are willing to discuss Justin Wilson,” he said. [Marly Rivera]
5:46pm: The Yankees are still getting a ton of hits on Brett Gardner and Andrew Miller. Cashman continues to say they’re open to anything, but added “it’s more likely than not we’ll have the same dynamic duo” next year, meaning Miller and Dellin Betances. [Bryan Hoch, Erik Boland]
5:48pm: Cashman admitted the Yankees don’t have a whole lot money to spend this winter. “It’s accurate to say flexibility is limited currently because we’re committed to a lot,” he said. So annoying. [Pete Caldera]
5:50pm: The Yankees do expect to lose someone in the Rule 5 Draft tomorrow. Jake Cave’s a safe bet. Apparently they’re also considering taking someone. They do have two open 40-man roster spots. A reliever and/or a spare infielder capable of playing third base are solid bets. [Bryan Hoch]
6:01pm: The team’s interest in Tyler Flowers was limited to a non-roster invite. Flowers’ response to the offer: “Hell no.” So there you go. Cashman said the team wants to “unleash” Gary Sanchez. [Brendan Kuty]
6:32pm: There’s a rumor going around that the Yankees have traded Justin Wilson to the Tigers for two prospects, but Cashman shot that down for the time being. “I don’t know what the reports are but I don’t have anything to talk about,” he said. [Brendan Kuty]
6:38pm: The Yankees are “talking seriously” about trading Justin Wilson to the Tigers for two prospects, but nothing is done yet. Sounds like it’s only a matter of time. [Joel Sherman]

(Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.)

The Seventh Inning Guy [2015 Season Review]

November 13, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

Over the last year or so, the Yankees have changed the way they’ve gone about building their roster, focusing on trades for younger players rather than signing free agents. They’ve traded away players on their Major League roster too, not just prospects.

Last November, when something had to be done about the backup catcher logjam, the Yankees shipped Francisco Cervelli to the Pirates for hard-throwing lefty reliever Justin Wilson in a straight one-for-one deal. Brian Cashman told reporters he first proposed the trade two years ago. The deal cleared a roster spot for John Ryan Murphy and added another power arm to the bullpen.

A Quiet Spring

The offseason makes you think weird things, man. There was a time last winter when I was convinced Wilson, who has two minor league options remaining, wasn’t a lock for the Opening Day roster. The Yankees had a ton of young relievers in the organization and Wilson could have been squeezed out as part of the numbers crunch. How silly of me.

From the start of Spring Training, it was obvious Wilson was going to be on the Opening Day roster. The Yankees treated him like a veteran reliever with a spot locked up. He came out of the bullpen early in Grapefruit League games so he could a) face big league hitters before wholesale changes, and b) get his work in and head home. Wilson threw nine innings in Spring Training. He allowed two runs on three hits in two walks in nine innings, striking out eleven. Pretty much no one talked about him. Too much other stuff was going on.

Early Control Problems

Like most other relievers, Wilson doesn’t have the greatest control in the world. He’d probably be a starter — which he was his entire minor league career — if he could throw strikes more consistently. Wilson had an 11.7% walk rate last year and an 11.6% walk rate in his minor league career. Walks have been an issue.

Wilson made his Yankees debut on Opening Day. He entered the top of the ninth with the Yankees down five, and his outing went walk, strikeout, walk, ground out, walk before being pulled with the bases loaded and two outs. Only eleven of his 24 pitches were strikes. It was not a good first impression. Bullpen roles outside the eighth and ninth inning were still unsettled and Wilson didn’t endear himself with that outing.

Four days later Wilson retired all five batters he faced, but the next day he allowed a run in two-thirds of an inning, walking a batter and throwing only five of 13 pitches for strikes. In his next appearance, he inherited runners on second and third with one out in the sixth inning of a tie game against the Orioles. Wilson allowed both runners to score on a Delmon Young single and a Chris Davis double. (He was later charged with two runs of his own.)

Understandably, Girardi lost some confidence in Wilson. Actually, since it was so early in the season, he probably didn’t have any confidence in him yet, and Wilson wasn’t helping his case. Four of Wilson’s next five appearances were true left-on-left matchups situations. He faced exactly one batter all four times, and, to his credit, he retired all four. In the one non-matchup outing, Wilson got four outs in a game the Yankees were leading by six.

May was a struggle for Wilson as well. He made a dozen appearances, allowed multiple runs in three of them, and opponents hit .294/.368/.412 against him in 8.2 innings. Wilson struck out six and walked three. On May 24th, Wilson was sitting on a 5.79 ERA (3.21 FIP) in 14 innings. His strikeout rate was good (21.7%) but he walked too many batters (13.3%). A 50.0% ground ball rate and no homers allowed led to that shiny FIP.

The first seven weeks of Wilson’s tenure in pinstripes did not go too well. He had not settled into any kind of role aside from “guy we try to stay away from in close games” and he wasn’t pitching all that well. The Yankees had Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller dominating the late innings, and Chasen Shreve helped picked up the slack, so Wilson’s struggles weren’t a huge blow to the team. They needed him to be better though.

The New Eighth Inning Guy

After allowing two runs on three hits in one-third of an inning on May 24th, Girardi stayed away from Wilson in close games. Five of his next seven appearances came with the score separated by at least three runs, and the other two were a quick lefty specialist appearance and an extra innings outing, an extra innings outing in which this happened:

Wilson pitched well, allowed three hits and and a walk in six scoreless innings during those seven appearances. It was a step in the right direction, if nothing else.

The Yankees placed Miller on the DL on June 11th, which threw a wrench into the bullpen. Betances moved into the closer’s role and suddenly Girardi didn’t have a set eighth inning guy, something he values very highly. Wilson got his Big Chance three days later, when he entered a game with a runner on first and no outs in the seventh inning. The Yankees were up 5-3 against the Orioles and Wilson retired all six batters he faced, three with strikeouts.

That outing — of which no video exists, sadly — didn’t quite put Wilson in the Circle of Trust™, but it earned him some more opportunities. Five more scoreless outings followed and Wilson settled in as the eighth inning guy. Shreve was pitching the seventh, Wilson the eighth, and Betances the ninth. While Miller was sidelined, Wilson allowed one run on four hits and three walks in 9.1 innings. He struck out 14. (The one run was a Mike Trout solo homer. It happens.)

The Seventh Inning Guy

Most relievers gradually work their way towards the back of the bullpen. Wilson did the opposite. Miller’s return meant Wilson went from eighth inning guy in June to seventh inning guy the rest of the season. Miller returned on July 8th, and from that point through the end of the season, Wilson pitched to a 3.23 ERA (2.16 FIP) in 30.2 innings. He struck out 37 and walked six. The guy who walked three batters in his first two-thirds of an inning of the season walked only six in his final 30.2 innings of the season.

Wilson’s best — or at least his subjectively most important — outing of the season came on September 19th against the Mets. The Yankees were barely hanging on in the AL East race and they still needed to clinch a wildcard spot, so every win was crucial. The Yankees led 5-0 but the Mets loaded the bases for the middle of the lineup with one out in the sixth. Wilson came in and struck out two to end the inning. He struck out the first two batters in the seventh as well.

Between the shaky start and the strong finish, Wilson posted a 3.10 ERA (2.69 FIP) in 61 innings across a team leading 74 appearances in 2015. (Well, he tied for Betances for the team lead in appearances, anyway.) His 27.1% strikeout rate was a career high and his 8.2% walk rate was a career low. Wilson also managed career low ground ball (43.8%) and homer (0.44 HR/9) rates even though his HR/GB% rate (6.8%) was in line with his career average (6.7%). The trick: don’t allow the ball to be put in play. Strikeouts are cool.

Also, Wilson was much more than a lefty specialist. He was a full inning pitcher for much of the season, especially after Miller landed on the DL. Wilson held lefties to a .236/.337/.292 (.290 wOBA) batting line with a 22.9% strikeout rate. Righties? They hit .213/.270/.318 (.261 wOBA) with a 29.2% strikeout rate. Pretty great. It’s pretty easy for managers to shoehorn a guy into a left-on-left role, but Wilson isn’t Clay Rapada or someone like that. He’s a capable reliever against all hitters.

Wilson faced four batters in the wildcard game and got four outs. He walked the first man he faced but erased the runner with a double play. Wilson entered in the sixth, an inning earlier than usual, which was Girardi’s plan. He wanted 12 outs from his big three relievers in the win or go home game. Wilson did his part. Too bad the offense didn’t do anything.

The Cervelli-for-Wilson trade is one of those rare deals where both sides got what they wanted out of it. The Pirates probably got more than what they wanted, really. Cervelli stepped in as their everyday catcher and had a great season. Wilson emerged as a late-inning reliever for the Yankees while Murphy played well as the backup catcher. All trades should work out this well.

Lefty Heat

Miller throws a mid-90s fastball and a ton of sliders. Wilson is very different. He threw a fastball roughly 93% of the time last season (93.48%, to be exact). His fastball averaged 95.2 mph — PitchFX says he topped out at 98.63 mph in 2015 — this past season, which was the second highest average fastball velocity among lefties (starters or relievers). Only the inhuman Aroldis Chapman (99.4 mph) threw harder among southpaws.

Wilson does not throw just one fastball, however. He throws three different types, and that’s what allows him to be successful. He’s not just out there pumping four-seamer after four-seamer. Wilson throws a sinker and cutter in addition to his four-seamer, so he has something that goes down, something that cuts in to righties/away from lefties, and something that stays true. Flip a few breaking balls and that’s enough to keep hitters off balance.

It’s weird to see a pitcher throw fastball after fastball, even a reliever, but Wilson did it this season and had a lot of success. They were different types of fastballs though, and when you throw that hard and are only throwing one inning at a time, you don’t need much else.

Looking Ahead to 2016

Wilson is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter — MLBTR projects a $1.3M salary in 2016 — and by now we know no player is exempt from trade discussions. Murphy was traded earlier this week and Miller’s name has popped up in rumors the last few days. Right now, Wilson is again penciled in as the seventh inning guy next season, and the caveat is there is still a lot of offseason remaining.

Yankees well-stocked with trade chips heading into the offseason

November 5, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

Over the last 12 months the Yankees have changed the way they do business. We’re used to seeing them throw money at their problems. They’ve been doing that for decades. Trades were the focus last offseason though, and whenever a need arose during the season, the Yankees called someone up from the minors. It was … different.

The Yankees have limited flexibility this winter. The roster is pretty full thanks to guaranteed contracts and whatnot, and with so little money coming off the books, there’s probably not much payroll space to work with either. Not unless Hal Steinbrenner approves a payroll increase, which he’s been hesitant to do over the years.

Trades again figure to be the focus this offseason. That allows the Yankees to both navigate their roster and payroll limitations while attempting to improve the team at the same time. They don’t all have to be blockbuster trades, of course. Shane Greene for Didi Gregorius was a low-key move that paid big dividends for the Yankees in 2015.

So, with trades again likely to dominate the winter months, let’s sort through the team’s trade chips and figure out who may be on a move.

The (Almost) Untouchables

As far as I’m concerned, the Yankees do not have any untouchable players. They have some players I wouldn’t trade unless the return is significant, but that doesn’t make them truly untouchable. Wouldn’t you trade, say, Luis Severino for Jose Fernandez? I know I would. The group of almost untouchables includes Severino, Gregorius, Dellin Betances, Aaron Judge, and Andrew Miller. That’s all of ’em in my book.

The Untradeables

The Yankees have several players who they couldn’t trade even if they wanted to due to performance or contract or something else, or in some cases all of the above. Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, and CC Sabathia headline this group. None of them are worth the money they’re owed and they all have full no-trade protection as well, so the Yankees would have to get their permission to move them.

There’s a second tier of big contract players who are not necessarily untradeable, but who would be difficult to move for various reasons. Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Chase Headley, and Masahiro Tanaka fit here. Teixeira and Beltran are entering the final year of their contracts, so they’d be short-term pickups, but they both have no-trade protection and have indicated a desire to stay in New York.

McCann, even while in decline, is still one of the better catchers in baseball. Maybe not top five anymore, but certainly top seven or eight. He’s got another three years and $51M left on his contract, and paying a catcher $17M per season is not something most teams can afford. Headley’s contract isn’t bad — three years and $39M is nothing — but he was below-average on both sides of the ball this season.

Tanaka is an interesting case. It seems like he’s neither as good nor as bad as many people think. Is he an ace? On his best days, yeah. But a 3.51 ERA (3.98 FIP) in 154 innings this year suggests he is more above-average than elite. Tanaka is also owed $22M in both 2016 and 2017 before his opt-out comes into play. He just had elbow surgery and teams are well aware his UCL is a grenade with the pin pulled. How in the world do you value him?

The Yankees could try to move any and all of these players. It’ll be tough though, either because their performance is down, their contracts are exorbitant, or they have no-trade protection. They’re untouchable, but in a different and bad way.

The Top Chip

Among the established players on the roster, Brett Gardner has by far the most trade value. It also helps that he doesn’t have a no-trade clause. (Gardner gets a $1M bonus if traded.) Gardner is owed only $39.5M over the next three years and he remains above-average on both sides of the ball. Even with his second half slump, he still put up a .259/.343/.399 (105 wRC+) batting line with 16 homers and 20 steals in 2015.

The Yankees can market Gardner as a two-way leadoff hitting center fielder to teams looking for outfield help but unable to afford top free agents like Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes. He’s affordable, he’s productive, and he’s a high-character guy who’s shown he can play and win in New York. Teams absolutely value that stuff. Getting a player of Gardner’s caliber on a three-year contract would be a major coup.

The real question is why would the Yankees trade Gardner? He’s arguably their best all-around player. They could move him to free up an outfield spot for, say, Heyward, but I think that’s unlikely. I also don’t think anyone in the minors is ready to step in and play left field regularly. Gardner is the only veteran on the team with actual trade value though. That’s why we’ll hear his name a lot this offseason.

The Top-ish Prospects

Beyond Judge, the Yankees have a few other high-end prospects they could trade for big league help, most notably Gary Sanchez, Jorge Mateo, and Rob Refsnyder. Greg Bird is technically no longer a prospect — he lost his rookie eligibility late in the season — but we can lump him in here too because he’s not exactly an established big leaguer yet. The elimination of the Pete Incaviglia Rule means the Yankees could trade James Kaprielian and any other 2015 draftees this winter, if they choose.

Sanchez and Mateo are the team’s best young trade chips among players who could actually be made available. (I don’t think the Yankees would trade Bird but I would in the right deal.) Sanchez is stuck behind McCann and John Ryan Murphy, and his defense probably isn’t up to the team’s standards. Mateo is an excellent prospect, but Gregorius is entrenched at the MLB level, and the Yankees are loaded with lower level shortstop prospects. They already offered Mateo in a trade once, remember. (For Craig Kimbrel at the deadline.)

The Yankees refused the trade Refsnyder this summer — the Athletics wanted him for Ben Zobrist — but they also refused to call him up for much of the year. It wasn’t until very late in the season that he got an opportunity. Refsnyder’s defense is improving but it is still an issue, and the truth is it may never be good enough for the Yankees. That doesn’t mean they’ll give him away though.

Second tier prospects like Eric Jagielo, Tyler Wade, Rookie Davis, and Jordan Montgomery could all be trade bait, though that’s true every offseason. The second tier prospects usually don’t bring back a whole lot unless there’s a salary dump involved. Either way, we can’t rule them out as trade chips.

The Outfielders & Relievers

The Yankees are very deep in Triple-A left-handed hitting outfielders and relievers. Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, Ben Gamel, and Jake Cave make up the crop of lefty hitting outfielders. Relievers? Gosh. There’s Chasen Shreve, Branden Pinder, Caleb Cotham, Nick Rumbelow, Nick Goody, James Pazos, healthy Jacob Lindgren, and I guess even Bryan Mitchell. He’s part of this group too, although he can start.

These are obvious positions of depth and the Yankees can and should use them in trades this offseason, if possible. The problem is they don’t have a ton of trade value. The Yankees already traded a lefty hitting outfielder (Ramon Flores) and a Triple-A reliever (Jose Ramirez) this year. The return was busted Dustin Ackley. So yeah. Heathcott and Williams have been both hurt and ineffective in recent years while Gamel lacks a track record of top end production. They have trade value, no doubt, but don’t expect them to headline any blockbusters.

The Spare Arms

The Yankees have a lot of pitchers but not a whole lot of pitching, if you catch my drift. The rotation ranked 19th with a 4.25 ERA and 15th with a 4.04 FIP this past season. Right smack in the middle of the pack. The Yankees have seven potential starters in place next year: Sabathia, Tanaka, Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Ivan Nova, and Adam Warren. That group is a mixed bad of upside and mediocrity, I’d say.

Of the final four pitchers on that list, I’d say Nova has the least trade value because he was both hurt and terrible last year. Also, next season is his final year of team control before free agency. Eovaldi and Pineda are the embodiment of that “upside and mediocrity” group. They’re so obviously talented. But the results? Eh. Not great this year. Both are under team control for another two seasons, which is a plus.

Warren has proven himself as a very valuable member of the pitching staff. He’s basically a high-end version of Ramiro Mendoza. He can start or relieve and is very good in both roles, and he’s durable with a resilient arm. No injury problems at all since being drafted. Warren is under control another three years and the Yankees rejected the trade that would have sent him to the A’s with Refsnyder for Zobrist.

Personally, I don’t think the Yankees are in position to deal away pitching depth given some of the injury concerns in the rotation, but I thought that last year and they traded Greene anyway. As it turned out, they were planning to trade for another pitcher (Eovaldi) and bring in a low cost veteran for depth (Chris Capuano). They also had Warren waiting. The same could happen this year.

The Best of the Rest

There’s three players on the roster we haven’t covered. The best of the bunch is Murphy, a young and cheap catcher with defensive chops, a promising bat, and five years of team control remaining. I can’t imagine how many calls Brian Cashman has fielded about Murphy over the last 18 months or so. He’s really valuable and not just in a trade. To the Yankees too.

Justin Wilson is what every team looks for in a reliever: he throws hard and he misses bats. Being left-handed is a bonus. He struggles with control sometimes, and that’s why he’s only a reliever and not a starter or something more. Wilson has three years of control remaining, so his trade value is less than last offseason, when all it took to get him was an injury plagued backup catcher two years away from free agency. (What Francisco Cervelli did after the trade doesn’t change anything.)

Ackley is the third player and he doesn’t have much value. Flores and Ramirez. There’s his trade value, even after a strong finish to the season. Those 57 plate appearances with the Yankees didn’t erase his 2,200 plate appearances of awful with the Mariners. Given his versatility, Ackley is more valuable to the Yankees as a player than as a trade chip. I think the same is true of Wilson as well.

* * *

Last offseason taught me that pretty much no one is safe from trades other than the guys with no-trade clauses. I did not at all expect the Yankees to trade Greene or Martin Prado or even Manny Banuelos. Those were surprises. I would be surprised if the Yankees traded guys like Severino and Gregorius and Gardner this winter, but hey, anything can happen. Surprises are fun. The Yankees are well-armed with trade chips this winter. All shapes and sizes.

Pineda and Eovaldi projected for largest arbitration raises in 2016

October 8, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

Now that the season is over, we can start to look forward and figure out which direction the Yankees will go this offseason. They could go big with free agents, they could do nothing and continue to trust their prospects, or they could have another trade-heavy offseason. I’m sure there’s a middle ground somewhere.

This offseason arbitration will be a major item for the Yankees. Some of their most important players are up for arbitration and due big raises, which will impact the overall payroll. Matt Swartz at MLBTR posted his annual arbitration projections earlier this week, and his model gets more and more accurate each year. There are still some big misses, that’s unavoidable, but overall the margin of error is within a few percent.

Anyway, let’s look at Swartz’s projections for New York’s nine arbitration eligible players. Yes, nine. The numbers in parentheses are each player’s service time, written (years.days). In the service time world, 172 days equals a year.

Sergio Santos (5.110) – $900K
Andrew Bailey (5.034) – $900K arbitration projection; has $2MM club option.
Ivan Nova (5.024) – $4.4MM
Michael Pineda (4.099) – $4.6MM
Dustin Ackley (4.087) – $3.1MM
Nathan Eovaldi (4.013) – $5.7MM
Adam Warren (3.036) – $1.5MM
Justin Wilson (3.035) – $1.3MM
Didi Gregorius (2.159) – $2.1MM

According to Tim Dierkes, the Super Two cutoff this year is 2.130, meaning Dellin Betances fell 52 days short of qualifying for arbitration. Super Twos are arbitration eligible four times instead of the usual three. Gregorius is a Super Two and arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. He’s got a nice raise coming after making something near the league minimum in 2015.

Santos is an obvious non-tender candidate. Even if the Yankees wanted to keep him around, they’re better off non-tendering him and re-signing him to a minor league contract since he’s going to miss most of next season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. There is no 60-day DL in the offseason and there’s no reason to have a injured journeyman reliever like Santos clogging up a precious 40-man roster spot.

Bailey is also a non-tender candidate and his contract situation is slightly more complicated thanks to that $2M club option. I know he’s a former All-Star and all that, but I didn’t see anything in September that made me think Bailey is worth $2M next season. The Yankees can decline the option and instead take him to arbitration, where he’s projected to earn a mere $900,000. I could see cutting him loose entirely or going to arbitration. I’d be surprised if the Yankees picked up the option.

Pineda and Eovaldi are both entering their second arbitration year. Pineda earned $2.1M this season and has the biggest projected raise at $2.5M. Eovaldi is right behind him with a $2.4M projected raise. That is fairly standard for good but not great starters going through arbitration for the second time. Given the fact both Pineda and Eovaldi spent time on the DL with arm injuries in 2015, I’m guessing the Yankees will not explore a long-term extension with either this winter.

Like Pineda and Eovaldi, Ackley is entering his second arbitration year and he’s projected for a mere $500,000 raise. His arbitration case is slightly different because he signed a Major League contract with the Mariners after being drafted, which means Ackley’s salary was higher in his first few years as a big leaguer. He made $1.5M in 2013, his final pre-arbitration year. Most players are making something close to the league minimum that year. His arbitration salary last season was based on that $1.5M. Still, that projected $3.1M salary for Ackley in 2016 is fine. The Yankees didn’t trade Ramon Flores and Jose Ramirez to get Ackley only to non-tender him after the season. Besides, he hit in September!

Warren and Wilson are getting typical raises for middle relievers going through arbitration for the first time. Warren’s salary is slightly higher because he spent some time as a starter, and being a starter pays. Had he remained in the rotation all season, his projected arbitration salary likely would have climbed north of $2M. Maybe the Yankees will throw Warren a bone and pay him more than projected after jerking him around this year. I wouldn’t get my hopes up if I were Warren though. This is a business, after all.

And finally, Nova’s the most interesting arbitration case because he was both hurt (rehab from Tommy John surgery) and bad (5.07 ERA and 4.87 FIP) in 2015. That projected $4.4M salary works out to a $1.1M raise over his 2015 salary, which is quite small for a starting pitcher entering his third arbitration year. Joel Sherman says the Yankees will not non-tender Nova, and as bad as he was this year, that makes sense. Paying $4.4M for a depth arm is nothing, and at least with Nova you can say he might improve as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery. At the very least, the Yankees could tender him a contract then trade him. Don’t cut him loose for nothing.

Arbitration salaries are based on old school stats. Wins, saves, home runs … stuff like that. The players are compared to others at their service time level and they argue they deserve X while the team argues they deserve less than X. The Yankees haven’t been to an actual arbitration hearing in years, not since Chien-Ming Wang in 2008, and there’s no reason to think they’ll go to one this offseason. Chances are everyone who needs to be signed this winter will be signed.