River Avenue Blues

  • About
    • Privacy Policy
  • Features
    • Yankees Top 30 Prospects
    • Prospect Profiles
    • Fan Confidence
  • Resources
    • 2019 Draft Order
    • Depth Chart
    • Bullpen Workload
    • Guide to Stats
  • Shop and Tickets
    • RAB Tickets
    • MLB Shop
    • Fanatics
    • Amazon
    • Steiner Sports Memorabilia

10/1-10/3 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

October 1, 2012 by Mike 57 Comments

Last three days on the job. (Jared Wickerham/Getty)

Important late-season series between the Yankees and Red Sox are nothing new, but this one has nothing to do with the standings between the two clubs. New York is tied atop the AL East and locked in a tight race with the Orioles while Boston is buried in last place, 20-something games out of first.

What Have They Done Lately?

Lay down for Baltimore, mostly. The Red Sox just got swept in a three-game series in Camden Yards that was so pathetic is appeared as though they were trying to lose. Maybe they were. Boston has lost five straight and nine of their last ten. At 69-90 (-51 run differential), they have the third worst record in the league and have secured the franchises first 90-loss season since 1966.

Offense

(Jared Wickerham/Getty)

The 4.6 runs per game average looks solid, but most of the damage was done a long time ago. David Ortiz (166 wRC+) and Will Middlebrooks (121 wRC+) are on the DL while Adrian Gonzalez (114 wRC+) is in Los Angeles and Kelly Shoppach (96 wRC+) is in Flushing. Since the big trade with the Dodgers, a span of 33 team games, the Red Sox have averaged just 3.4 runs per game. That’s unfathomably bad.

Among the players still on the roster, the best is Dustin Pedroia (111 wRC+) and I don’t think it’s particularly close. Cody Ross (114 wRC+) actually has better numbers, but I’m sure we’d all rather see him up in a big spot than Pedroia. At least I would. Pretty easily too. Jacoby Ellsbury (88 wRC+) has had a miserable and injury-plagued year, but he can still be dangerous. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (97 wRC+) hits homers and nothing else, plus both Scott Podsednik (83 wRC+) and Ryan Lavarnway (25 wRC+) get regular at-bats as well.

The rest of the lineup is a collection of retreads, has-beens, and never-wases. Pedro Ciriaco (88 wRC+) has killed the Yankees this season but done little else at the plate. James Loney (66 wRC+) and Mauro Gomez (93 wRC+) split time at first while Jose Iglesias (17 wRC+) and Mike Aviles (73 wRC+) do the same at short. Daniel Nava (103 wRC+) has had a nice-half year, and the rest of the active position player crop includes outfielders Ryan Kalish and Che-Hsuan Lin, infielders Ivan DeJesus Jr. and Danny Valencia, and third catcher Guillermo Quiroz.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Clay Buchholz
One of the few bright spots in this disaster of a second half for the Red Sox has been Buchholz. The 28-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 4.22 ERA (4.46 FIP) in 187.2 innings overall, but that is broken down into a 5.53 ERA (5.20 FIP) in the first half (86.1 IP) and a 3.11 ERA (3.47 FIP) in the second half (101.1 IP). Buchholz still doesn’t miss as many bats as his stuff says he should (6.09 K/9 and 16.1 K% with no improvement in the second half), but he limits walks (2.97 BB/9 and 7.9 BB%) and gets ground balls (48.0%). He uses a low-to-mid-90s four-seamer and an upper-80s cutter to set up his low-80s changeup and upper-70s curveball. Buchholz has one of the best changeups in baseball, a pitch that anecdotally gives the Yankees fits. They tagged him for six runs in six innings (including five homers) back in April, but that was a different pitcher.

(Jim Rogash/Getty)

Tuesday: RHP Ivan Nova vs. LHP Jon Lester
It’s not quite a Ricky Romero disaster season, but this will be the final start of Lester’s worst season as a full-time big leaguer. He’s set new career worsts in ERA (4.94), FIP (4.14), strikeout rate (7.41 K/9 and 19.3 K%), and homerun rate (1.12 HR/9) while maintaining his usually strong walk (3.01 BB/9 and 7.9 BB%) and ground ball (48.8%) numbers. Lester is a three-fastball (low-90s four-seamer, low-90s sinker, upper-80s cutter) pitcher who backs them up with a mid-80s changeup and mid-70s curveball. The Yankees have seen both the good and bad versions of the 28-year-old left-hander this year and throughout recent seasons. There’s no secret here.

Wednesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka
Six years after being declared the world’s best pitcher not in MLB, Matsuzaka will be making his final start for the Red Sox in the final game of the season. The 32-year-old owns a 7.68 ERA (5.53 FIP) this year and a 4.47 ERA (4.34 FIP) during his big league career, hardly what Boston expected when they sunk nine figures into him. Dice-K has racked up the strikeouts this year (8.10 K/9 and 19.4 K%), but he still walks too many (3.95 BB/9 and 9.5 BB%) and doesn’t get enough ground balls (39.9%). His stuff is pretty much back to normal after Tommy John surgery, meaning a low-90s four-seamer, an upper-80s cutter, and an array for offspeed pitches: low-80s slider, low-80s changeup, mid-80s splitter. The Yankees have not seen Matsuzaka this year but have seen him enough in recent years to know that he’ll work himself into trouble.

(Jared Wickerham/Getty)

Bullpen Status
Well, if nothing else, closer Andrew Bailey (3.46 FIP) is well-rested following the Red Sox’s latest stretch of awfulness. Right-hander Junichi Tazawa (1.82 FIP) and left-hander Andrew Miller (3.18 FIP) form a pretty dominant setup tandem, though Vicente Padilla (3.98 FIP) and Craig Breslow (2.51 FIP) will see some late-inning time as well. After all the roster turnover and whatnot, the bullpen is the strength of this Boston team.

Working the middle innings are old friends Mark Melancon (4.70 FIP) and Al Aceves (4.21 FIP), ditto funky left-hander Rich Hill (2.84 FIP). Scott Atchison (2.51 FIP) has pitched well, Clayton Mortenson (4.46 FIP) less so. Daniel Bard (6.38 FIP) is a disaster, and the rest of the bullpen is filled out by September call-ups Pedro Beato and former Yankees draft pick Chris Carpenter. Given the enormity of this series, I imagine Joe Girardi’s typical bullpen management is going out the window and he’ll use whoever he needs to use to win in all three games. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for usage details, then check out Over The Monster for the latest and greatest on the Red Sox.

Filed Under: Series Preview Tagged With: Boston Red Sox

Fan Confidence Poll: October 1st, 2012

October 1, 2012 by Mike 30 Comments

Record Last Week: 4-3 (40 RS, 29 RA)
Season Record: 92-67 (776 RS, 661 RA, 92-67 pythag. record), tied atop AL East
Opponents This Week: vs. Red Sox (three games, Mon. to Weds.)

Top stories from last week:

  • The week started with three games in Minnesota, and Andy Pettitte carried the Yankees to a series-opening win. The bullpen blew a lead the next day, but CC Sabathia righted the ship with a dominant showing on Wednesday.
  • The Yankees headed up to Toronto for a four-game weekend series, though they got shutout in the opener. A blowout win followed in the second game, but they were unable to capitalize on numerous chances on Saturday. Yesterday’s win was of the late-inning comeback variety.
  • Injury News: Mark Teixeira (calf) is scheduled to rejoin the team today after working out in Instructional League last week. Jayson Nix (hip) will be out 10-14 days with a Grade I left hip flexor strain. Robinson Cano (hand) is fine after getting hit by a pitch. Alex Rodriguez (foot) is fine after fouling a ball of his left foot. Pat Venditte (shoulder) is out until mid-2013 following surgery.
  • Both Brett Gardner (elbow) and David Aardsma (elbow) were activated off the DL on Monday. Steve Pearce and Justin Thomas were designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster, and Pearce was claimed off waivers by the Orioles.
  • The Yankees clinched a wildcard spot with yesterday’s win (and the Angels’ loss). They can still win the division and finish with the best record in the AL, but at least now they’re locking into a playoff spot.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Playoff Bound: Yankees clinch wildcard spot

September 30, 2012 by Mike 89 Comments

Thanks to Sunday’s win over the Blue Jays and the Angels’ loss to the Rangers, the Yankees have clinched at least a wildcard spot for this year’s playoffs. Texas and the Orioles also clinched a postseason spot. The Yankees can still win the division (and finish with the best record in the AL as well) and avoid that wildcard play-in game, but they’re now locked into the postseason either way.

Filed Under: Asides, Playoffs

Yankees mount late comeback against Blue Jays, remain tied atop AL East

September 30, 2012 by Mike 56 Comments

What looked like bitter defeat and a one-way ticket to second place turned into the biggest and most important win of the season. The Yankees mounted a, dare I say, gutty comeback in the late innings to take the series finale from the Blue Jays by the score of 9-6. In many ways, it was the exact opposite of Saturday’s loss.

(Abelimages/Getty)

Don’t Call It A Comeback

We’ll get into the first few innings in a sec, but right now the important thing is that the Yankees were down 5-1 heading into the sixth. They had squandered an opportunity or two along the way, but for the most part the lack of scoring had to do with Henderson Alvarez overwhelming the lineup with fastballs. Seriously, the kid threw two (two!) sliders out of his 87 pitches. The other 85 were two- and four-seam fastballs. That’s insane and part of the reason why the first five innings were so frustrating.

Anyway, the Yankees got a run back in the sixth when Alvarez uncorked a wild pitch with men on the corners, though they were unable to bring Nick Swisher in from second with no outs. The seventh inning is when things really started to turn around. Eduardo Nunez pinch-hit for Eric Chavez against the left-handed Brett Cecil, opening the inning with a single. Steve Delabar replaced Cecil and allowed a ground-rule double to Derek Jeter, putting two men in scoring position and (more importantly) bringing the tying run to the plate. Ichiro Suzuki plated the first run with a sacrifice fly to center.

The middle of the order was up, but lately Alex Rodriguez hasn’t been much of an offensive force. He came into the game riding a 2-for-24 slump, and when a pitcher with a filthy put-away splitter like Delabar jumps ahead in the count 0-2, it seems like an out is inevitable. Instead A-Rod fouled off two pitches before working the count full and eventually drawing the walk. He doesn’t hit for as much impact as he used to, but Alex can still put together a mean at-bat. Robinson Cano followed a hard-fought at-bat of his own, fouling off two two-strike splitters before doubling down the right field line. Jeter scored to make it a one-run game, and a batter later Aaron Loup chucked a wild pitch to allow A-Rod to score the tying run. Nick Swisher actually did a great job of avoiding the pitch and allowing it to go to the backstop. The two at-bats by A-Rod and Cano really defined the big inning, they were fantastic.

AwPhil

(Abelimages/Getty)

The Yankees needed a strong outing from Phil Hughes, and he instead gave them five runs in 4.2 innings. The Blue Jays tagged him for eight hits, including what appeared to be a back-breaking two-run homer by Brett Lawrie in the fifth inning. That turned a 2-1 game into a 4-1 game that felt like a 400-1 game. Phil allowed another run before being lifted with two outs in the fifth. None of the four starters in the series completed six innings of work and two didn’t even complete five.

I thought Hughes was overthrowing early in the game, especially in the two-run first inning. He was consistently missing up in the zone, far enough up that hitters took the pitches for balls rather than put a good swing on them. Seventeen of his 93 pitches were the new slider, which is far more than I can remember him throwing in any other start. Toronto only had two left-handed hitters in the starting lineup, so maybe that’s why the battery emphasized the pitch. It was not a good way for Hughes to end his season by any means, and hopefully he’ll get a chance to wash the taste out of his mouth in a postseason game.

(AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Chris Young)

And The Yankees Take The Lead

Tying to score at five felt like a win, but in reality there was still a lot more work to be done. Left-hander Darren Oliver opened the eighth by walking Curtis Granderson on five pitches, which is a big no-no. Joe Girardi opted to leave Raul Ibanez in to face the veteran southpaw rather than send Casey McGehee or (worse) Andruw Jones to the plate, and he was rewarded with a single. Russell Martin, one of the team’s three hottest hitters in recent weeks, sacrificed the runners up to second and third with one out. The Yankees were in business.

The right hitter was up in this situation, the generally punchless Eduardo Nunez. He was the right hitter because he’s the best non-Ichiro contact hitter on the Yankees, and all they needed was a ball-in-play. Nunez drove the ball to deep center field — the camera angle make it look like it was ticketed for the gap, but alas — for the go-ahead sacrifice fly. After being down four runs with four innings the play, the Yankees had taken the lead. Jeter followed by punching a single to right, allowing pinch-runner Brett Gardner to trot home with a huge insurance run. That two-run lead felt enormous.

Girardi’s Machinations

Girardi catches an awful lot of grief for his managerial moves, but you have to hand it to him for this game. Every button he pushed worked and contributed to the win. He used Derek Lowe to escape Hughes’ fifth inning jam, and the veteran sinkerballer rewarded him by retiring all five men he faced and restoring order in the middle innings. Boone Logan took over with one out and the score tied in the seventh, and the overworked left-hander retired both Colby Rasmus (strikeout) and Adam Lind (fly ball) to end the inning. He walked the right-handed Yunel Escobar between the two lefties, which seemed like a strategic pitch-around in lieu of another pitching change to match up.

Offensively, Girardi left Ibanez in the game to face Oliver, which obviously worked out. I wouldn’t advise making a habit of allowing Raul to face tough lefties in the late innings of close games, but on Sunday it worked out for him. Pinch-hitting Nunez for Chavez despite the lack of another infielder on the bench paid dividends as Eduardo started the game-tying rally with a single and drove in the go-ahead run with a sac fly. Having Martin bunt resulted in a pair of runs as well. Pretty much anything that can be construed as a managerial decision worked in the Yankees’ favor.

Leftovers

Ichiro made a great running catch to save Hughes an extra-base hit. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Chris Young)

Rafael Soriano made things interesting in the ninth, very interesting in fact. Like he brought the tying run to the plate by loaded the bases with no outs interesting. Thankfully he escaped the jam with two ground balls, the first a 6-4-3 double play and the second a routine 4-3. Still though, didn’t need the heart attack Rafi. David Robertson walked a batter in an otherwise strong inning, striking out a pair on … wait for it … curveballs!

The Yankees scored their first run with a Chavez solo homer in the third, his third dinger in his last four games. They also plated two big insurance runs in the ninth, when Curtis Granderson doubled in a pair with the bases loaded and no outs. It gave him 100 RBI on the season, meaning the Yankees will not have their first 100 RBI man-less season since 1992 (not counting strike years). Jason Frasor, the first Jays’ pitcher of the inning, faced ten batters in the series and retired two.

After tying the game in the seventh, Swisher lined into an inning-ending double play with Cano on third. The infield was in, Escobar made a great diving stop to his left, then flipped over to third for the force out. Robinson may have been a little too far off the base but I don’t blame him for getting doubled up. It was just an incredibly unfortunately turn of events. Swisher did everything right and still ended the inning. Sometimes baseball just ain’t fair.

Cano stayed hot with a 3-for-5 day, and one of the three was a little push bunt single to third base to beat the shift. A lot of people have been waiting all season to see someone do that. Jeter also had three hits while A-Rod and Ibanez had two each. Every starter had at least one hit other than Martin, who took and 0-for-4 with the sac bunt. A-Rod, Swisher, and Granderson drew walks to pace an offense that put 18 men on-base in nine innings. They also went 4-for-12 (.333) with runners in scoring position, so hooray for that. Total team effort by offense, so great job by them.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights while ESPN has the updated standings. The Orioles finished of their sweep of the lowly Red Sox, so there is still a tie atop the AL East. If the Angels lose to the Rangers tonight, the Yankees will clinch at least a wildcard spot. If Texas loses, there will be a three-way tie for the best record in the AL. The magic number for the division is down to four.


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next

It’s the final series of the season, a three-game set against the Red Sox in the Bronx. I think we knew that would be an important series when the season opened, but I don’t think we expected the clubs to be separated by 20-something games in the standings. CC Sabathia gets the ball against Clay Buchholz in the opener on Monday night. Check our RAB Tickets for some last minute deals.

Filed Under: Game Stories

Sunday Night Open Thread

September 30, 2012 by Mike 126 Comments

(Abelimages/Getty)

You can’t say enough about that win this afternoon. The Yankees came out of the gate looking lifeless, but some (as in multiple) late-inning rallies resulted in the biggest and most important win of the season. It’s worth noting that the Yankees are now guaranteed to play no fewer than 163 games this year. Even if everything breaks wrong this week, worst case scenario is that they’re playing the Angels in a tie-breaker game to decide the second wildcard spot. Obviously no one wants it to come to that, but at least we know the season can’t come to an end on Wednesday.

Anyway, here is your open thread for the night. There is no ESPN Sunday Night Game, but the Angels and Rangers are playing Game Two of their doubleheader at 7pm ET (Santana vs. Holland). That game isn’t on national television (as far as I know it’s on MLB Network), but it is worth following because the an Angels loss clinches a playoff spot for the Yankees. An Angels win moves the Yankees (and Orioles) in a tie with Texas for the best record in the AL. The late NFL game is the Bears and Cowboys Giants and Eagles. Talk about those games or anything else here, except for politics of course. Thanks in advance.

Filed Under: Open Thread

Teixeira expected back tomorrow, no other call-ups coming

September 30, 2012 by Mike 11 Comments

Via Mark Feinsand, the Yankees expect to have Mark Teixeira back in the lineup and playing first base against the Red Sox tomorrow. He and his strained left calf have come through recent workouts fine and he’ll go through another round down in Instructional League today. The Yankees need their first baseman back badly, so this is certainly welcome news.

In other news, Brian Cashman said the team is not planning to recall either Corban Joseph or David Adams in the wake of Jayson Nix’s strained hip flexor. Eduardo Nunez is the only backup middle infielder on the roster at the moment, and Joe Girardi clearly doesn’t trust him defensively in close games. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano should play every inning of every game the rest of the way, but I’m surprised they’re not bringing up another infielder just in case.

Filed Under: Asides, Injuries Tagged With: Corban Joseph, David Adams, Mark Teixeira

Game 159: Must Win

September 30, 2012 by Mike 616 Comments

(Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Yankees have entered must win territory. The magic number is five with only four games to play, so the only way they control their own destiny is by winning every game the rest of the season including the Game 163 tiebreaker. They can’t count on the Red Sox beating the Orioles today (haha), nor can they count on the Rays — who can be eliminated from postseason contention today with a loss and an Athletics win — to help them out next week. The Yankees blew a ten-game lead and blew a very winnable game yesterday, so the breathing room is gone. They’re playing playoff games right now. Here’s the lineup…

SS Derek Jeter
RF Ichiro Suzuki
3B Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
1B Nick Swisher
CF Curtis Granderson
LF Raul Ibanez
C  Russell Martin
DH Eric Chavez

RHP Phil Hughes

This afternoon’s game starts a little after 1pm ET and can be seen on YES. Enjoy.

Filed Under: Game Threads

  • « Previous Page
  • 1
  • …
  • 1828
  • 1829
  • 1830
  • 1831
  • 1832
  • …
  • 4059
  • Next Page »

RAB Thoughts on Patreon

Mike is running weekly thoughts-style posts at our "RAB Thoughts" Patreon. $3 per month gets you weekly Yankees analysis. Become a Patron!

Got A Question For The Mailbag?

Email us at RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. The mailbag is posted Friday mornings.

RAB Features

  • 2019 Season Preview series
  • 2019 Top 30 Prospects
  • 'What If' series with OOTP
  • Yankees depth chart

Search RAB

Copyright © 2025 · River Avenue Blues