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Fan Confidence Poll: December 21st, 2009

December 21, 2009 by Mike 108 Comments

2009 Season Record: 103-59 (915 RS, 753 RA), won AL East by 8 games, finished with the best record in MLB by 6 games, won 27th World Series

Winter ball update

December 21, 2009 by Mike 28 Comments

Some cuts, courtesy of Andy in Sunny Daytona: Chris Smith, Brett Smith, Paul Patterson, Mitch Delaney, Tommy Baldridge, Chad Gross, and some DSL guys. Compton Chris was a straight up overdraft, Brett was promising by ruined by injuries. The other guys were just filler.

Dominican Winter League (season ends tomorrow)
Abe Almonte: 18 G, 4 for 15 (.267), 7 R, 2 RBI, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 SB
Jamie Hoffmann: 21 G, 16 for 68 (.235), 8 R, 5 2B, 5 RBI, 7 BB, 14 K, 3 SB – hasn’t played since the trade
Juan Miranda: 11 G, 17 for 40 (.425), 8 R, 4 2B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 SB – the imminent Nick Johnson pickup is bad news for him
Eduardo Nunez: 2 G, 1 for 4 (.250), 1 R, 1 BB
Wilkins Arias: 24 G, 16 IP, 17 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 6 BB, 18 K – he was awful early, but he’s been shut down over his last 18 appearances or so
Noel Castillo: 2 G, 1.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
Edwar Ramirez: 3 G, 2.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Mexican Pacific League
Walt Ibarra: 30 G, 16 for 58 (.276), 10 R, 1 2B, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 16 K, 1 SB
Ramiro Pena: 21 G, 19 for 74 (.257), 8 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 6 BB, 8 K, 1 SB
Jorge Vazquez: 29 G, 28 for 112 (.250), 15 R, 4 2B, 11 HR, 24 RBI, 12 BB, 23 K

Puerto Rican League
Amaury Sanit: 6 G, 4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Venezuelan Winter League
Frankie Cervelli: 6 G, 3 for 14 (.214), 3 R, 1 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Reegie Corona: 41 G, 41 for 127 (.323), 32 R, 16 2B, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 26 BB, 17 K, 3 SB, 1 K – SSS FTW!
Jesus Montero: 9 G, 3 for 26 (.115), 2 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K
Luis Nunez: 15 G, 13 for 45 (.289), 2 R, 3 2B, 7 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K
Juan Marcano: 2 G, 4.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – back to the DSL for you
Ivan Nova: 5 G, 4 GS, 25.2 IP, 17 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 17 K
Jon Ortiz: 6 G, 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Romulo Sanchez: 26 G, 32.1 IP, 23 H, 16 R, 13 ER, 19 BB, 44 K – 12.2 K/9 but 5.3 BB/9
Josh Schmidt: 14 G, 11 GS, 61.1 IP, 53 H, 33 R, 26 ER, 24 BB, 56 K – he’s also plunked nine batters
Pat Venditte: 7 G, 9.1 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
Eric Wordekemper: 5 G, 1 GS, 8.1 IP, 12 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 5BB, 3 K

Blizzard aftermath open thread

December 20, 2009 by Mike 140 Comments

So, I might have spoken a little too soon last night. The snow came a little later than expected, though once it showed up, it was brutal. Got about ten inches of the white stuff around these parts. I shall rename the storm … Mauer’s Homerun Swing.

Use this puppy as your open thread tonight. Britt Farr and the Vikings take on the Panthers in the late game, plus the Knicks are in action as well. Anything goes, so have at it.

The economics of Hideki Matsui

December 20, 2009 by Benjamin Kabak 36 Comments

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How do you put a value on Hideki Matsui? That question has dominated much of the off-season talk about baseball economics.

Early on, a report out of Japan alleged that the Yanks stood to lose $15 million in revenue if Matsui left the Bronx. Many though questioned those numbers. The revenue from Japan doesn’t flow directly to the Yanks. Instead, it lands in the central MLB pot and is redistributed to the 30 teams.

For the Yankees, Matsui’s impact to the bottom line came about through sponsorships and ticket sales. Since 2002, the Yomiuri Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper, paid for one of the outfield billboards, and Benihana, the Japanese hibachi restaurant, sponsored his at-bats. Furthermore, Yankee games became a major destination for Japanese baseball fans. Those are the revenue sources the Yanks may miss.

But will they actually notice a decline in revenues with Matsui on the Angels? Yesterday, we learned that the Shimbun would not have renewed their sponsorship in 2010 regardless of Hideki’s team. But the Yanks have already sold the empty billboard space. As commenter Ed explained, “Sell a sign in the stadium for $1m/year to a Japanese company because Matsui’s here. He leaves, you sell it to the American company that had the next highest bid, and you get $0.9m instead. Depending on what you want the numbers to say, you can claim Matsui lead to $1m in income or to $100k.”

Today in the Japan Times, sports economist Andrew Zimbalist further details the economics of Hideki:

“I believe the main impact will be what he contributes on the playing field,” Andrew Zimbalist, the Robert A. Woods Professor of Economics at Smith College in Northampton, Mass., told The Japan Times in an exclusive interview on Saturday. “The coterie of reporters that follow Matsui add nothing to the team’s revenues.”

Zimbalist, a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Sports Economics and author of several books on baseball economics, thinks Matsui’s signing won’t make a huge impact for the Angels in terms of revenue. “There also may be some additional Japanese fans in greater L.A. and tourists who come to the games, but, I suspect, that these numbers will be very modest. There also may be some Japanese signage at the ballpark.

“In the end, the fact that Matsui is a beloved star in Japan may add a few million dollars to the Angels’ revenues, but, again, the main impact will be on the field.”

It’s safe to conclude now that the $15 million figure we heard a few weeks ago was wildly overinflated.

In the end, the Yanks may find themselves short a few dollars with Hideki out of the picture. The team, coming off of a World Series championship, will not find itself short of fans, and the sales staff has already exceeded 2009’s sponsorship figures. As Hideki’s value to the Angels will be on the field, if the Yankees find themselves yearning for Matsui, it will be his bat and not his marketability that they will miss.

Football Open Thread

December 20, 2009 by Mike 97 Comments

The Jets will take on Matt Ryan and Michael Turner (both active) and the rest of the Atlanta Falcons in the snowy Meadowlands this afternoon, though you Giants fans will have to wait until tomorrow to watch your team. Talk about any and all of the games here.

Yanks to match any team’s offer to Wang?

December 20, 2009 by Joe Pawlikowski 69 Comments

According to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, 15 teams have shown interest in Chien-Ming Wang. That sounds about right. Any team with contention hopes should have at least called to see what he and his agent, Alan Nero, seek for the 2010 season. The most interesting part of the one-paragraph blurb resides in a parenthetical aside, when Cafardo mentions that the Yankees “would like to match any final offer.” I’m sure there’s a limit on the offer, but I doubt any team offers more than the split minor league/major league contract the Yankees proposed after non-tendering Wang.

As for Wang’s rehab schedule, he’s been throwing long toss since December 1, and will visit with Dr. James Andrews after the new year to “get an updated timeframe on his comeback.” Nero is still talking about an early May return for Wang.

The perils of projecting a young player

December 20, 2009 by Joe Pawlikowski 170 Comments

In 2003, it seemed as though Scott Podsednik had broken out. Nine years after the Texas Rangers drafted him in the third round, he had a monster first full season in the bigs. Over 628 plate appearances he hit .314/.379/.443, ranking him second among NL center fielders in OBP and third in wOBA. It had been a long journey for Podsednik, a failed Rule 5 pick who eventually hit minor league free agency, and then waived by the team who signed him. But by 2003 Brewers fans had reason to be excited.

The production didn’t carry over to 2004, though. Podsednik, who had a .362 BABIP in 2003, saw that drop to .275 in 2004, which hampered his overall numbers. He fell to .244/.313/.364 and ranked fourth worst among qualifying NL center fielders in wOBA — and was further from the fifth worst than he was the absolute worst. He recovered to have a good season in 2005, but he’s been an inconsistent contributor since then. He had a hard time finding work in 2009, and is again many teams’ Plan B or C this winter.

Let this be a cautionary tale to those who extol the virtues of Brett Gardner. Yes, he put up good numbers in limited playing time during his first full big league season, but that’s hardly an indicator of what he’ll do next year. He had only 284 plate appearances in 2009, less than half the number of a full-time outfielder. That, plus his limited exposure in 2008, makes it difficult to project how he’ll hit in 2010. In other words, I wouldn’t buy CHONE, ZiPS, Bill James, or any other projection system on Gardner right now.

(Then again, I wouldn’t make any significant decisions based on projection engines. They might provide a good indicator of a player’s progression from year to year, but it’s nothing more than an indicator. This goes especially for young players, on whom we have much less available data.)

My main beef with the 2010 projections right now is how they assume Gardner will improve. Yes, that’s certainly possible. Many players improve in their second full major league seasons. But a player with Gardner’s skill set might find it difficult. Just look at his numbers in 2009 compared to Podsednik’s in 2003. They both had strikeout rates of around 16 percent, both had low isolated power marks (though Podsednik’s was about .020 better), and both had contact rates in the high 80s (though Gardner was about a percent better).

Podsednik and Gardner are similar in that they’re low-power, speedy center fielders who played to their strengths by taking a healthy number of walks — both had a walk rate of around 9 percent in their first full major league seasons. We often hear anecdotes of how this doesn’t bode well for the player’s future. Pitchers, unafraid of singles, will be more apt to throw strikes. Will this be true for Gardner?

It happened for Podsednik. In 2003 pitchers threw 49.8 percent of their pitches in the strike zone. In 2004 they threw him 56.2 percent in the zone. Podsednik maintained his contact rate, but predictably saw a dip in his walk percentage. He also hit far fewer line drives in 2004, dropping to 17.7 percent from 23.6 percent. That means more ground balls, which can be good, and more fly balls, detrimental for a low-power player like Podsednik. His fly ball rate rose by 3.5 percent and certainly factored in to his lower 2004 BABIP.

Brett Gardner, of course, is not Scott Podsednik. Maybe his second full season will play out differently than Podsednik’s. Maybe pitchers won’t make a similar adjustment, and Gardner can continue to walk at a good clip, allowing him to use his best asset, his speed, more frequently. But I don’t think that’s something we can count on. So many players of Gardner’s ilk — speedy, low power, mediocre contact rate — have struggled after initially succeeding.

So no, I don’t think that Gardner will be more valuable than Jason Bay in 2010. We have an idea of what Bay will produce. We do not really know what Gardner will do. Even though Gardner’s defense is easily superior to Bay’s, we still don’t have a good idea of how their offensive output will compare. I also think it’s way, way too early to just hand Gardner the center field job, especially after Melky Cabrera showed improvement in 2009. Yes, if his best case scenario plays out Gardner should get the nod over Melky. But it’s way, way, way too early to project that now. We just don’t have enough of an idea of how Gardner will produce over a full-time season.

For your own reference, here are three readily available projections on Gardner for 2010:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
CHONE	357	.266	.351	.375
ZiPS	387	.253	.328	.344
Bill James	325	.277	.368	.375