Three weeks after agreeing to terms, the Yankees have finally announced the signing of Carlos Beltran to a three-year contract. He already revealed on Twitter he will wear #36. The press conference is scheduled for tomorrow at 11am and you’ll be able to watch on YES.
To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, the Yankees designated right-hander Brett Marshall for assignment. The 23-year-old had a disappointing 5.13 ERA (4.62 FIP) in 138.2 innings for Triple-A Scranton this past season. He made his big league debut and allowed six runs in 12 innings across three appearances. I’m thinking he’ll slip through waivers. We’ll see. · (38) ·
Via Sponichi (translated by Yakyu Baka): Rakuten Golden Eagles president Yozo Tachibana says the team is “still undecided” about whether to post Masahiro Tanaka this winter. They’re still discussing matters with their ace right-hander and there is no timetable for a decision.
A report floating around earlier today indicated Tanaka would not be posted, but it appears that was a game of telephone gone wrong. It was a report referencing reports from Japan, reports no one can seem to find. Rakuten is said to be willing to make Tanaka the highest paid player in NPB history at roughly $8M next season, but that’s still only about half what he’d earn by coming to MLB. So, anyway, there is still nothing to report about Tanaka’s availability. The pitching market is in a holding pattern until there is some resolution. · (65) ·
At some point very soon, perhaps today, the Yankees will formally announce the signing of Carlos Beltran. The 40-man roster is full at the moment, so someone will lose their spot when Beltran puts pen to paper. The same will happen when Brian Roberts becomes official. Ditto Matt Thornton and another starter and a third baseman and a reliever or two.
Needless to say, the Yankees are going to have some tough decisions to make regarding roster spots in the near future. There are more pending contracts and still unaddressed needs than obvious designate for assignment/release candidates. Let’s sort through the roster (here’s the 40-man for reference) and attempt to figure out who is most expendable when 40-man spots are needed in the coming weeks.
Definitely Safe (19): Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Slade Heathcott, Derek Jeter, Kelly Johnson, Shawn Kelley, Hiroki Kuroda, Brian McCann, J.R. Murphy, Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Michael Pineda, David Robertson, Brendan Ryan, CC Sabathia, Gary Sanchez, Alfonso Soriano, Mark Teixeira, Adam Warren
These nineteen players aren’t going anywhere for obvious reasons. They’re either key pieces of the big league roster or among New York’s top prospects. If any of these guys are traded, they’ll be traded for someone to help the big league team. Not a non-40-man roster candidate for a sake of clearing a roster spot.
It’s Complicated (1): Alex Rodriguez
The day will come when the Yankees dump A-Rod off the 40-man, but that day is not imminent. Not as long as the ruling for his appeal hearing — a ruling that could save the team tens of millions of dollars — is still pending.
Now, that said, Rodriguez would not count against the 40-man roster if he is suspended, so he could win up opening a spot anyway. The ruling is expected sometime next month and there are indications the Yankees won’t add another infielder until it comes down — makes sense since there is only one open position player slot on the roster at the moment — so either A-Rod or a player occupying his 40-man spot will man third come Opening Day. Like I said, it’s complicated.
Probably Safe (12): Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Cesar Cabral, Jose Campos, Frankie Cervelli, Preston Claiborne, Shane Greene, Bryan Mitchell, Eduardo Nunez, Vidal Nuno, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine
I don’t think you can say any of these folks are absolutely locked into the roster spots and untouchable, but it would be surprising if they were dumped to make room for someone else. Is it possible? Sure. Likely? Nah. There’s no such thing as too much pitching or catching depth, and the Yankees are in a position to cut loose an infielder like Nunez at this moment.
These are the guys who could legitimately lose their roster spot in the next few weeks. Ichiro is a useful fifth outfielder at this point but he doesn’t really have a role with the team outside of defensive replacement and pinch-runner. The Yankees have been shopping him in recent weeks and if the opportunity emerges to shed some salary, they’ll probably jump all over it.
Flores and Marshall had disappointing 2013 seasons and that’s probably enough to put them on the chopping block. They’re okay but not great prospects, the kinda guys who could slip through waivers. Turley is a notch above those two on the prospect totem pole and since he’s both left-handed and breathing, he’d definitely get claimed off waivers. He seems like an unlikely future roster casuality but I wouldn’t rule it out completely if things get tight.
Almonte and Anna are the “next in line” depth players. If (and when, really) an outfielder gets hurt next summer, Almonte will be called up to take his place. When an infielder gets hurt, it’ll be Anna. Maybe the Yankees feel comfortable with Heathcott and Nunez in those roles, but that MLB-ready depth is never a bad thing. Considering the current roster situation, it’s not unreasonable to think one of these two could be in jeopardy come February or so.
These two guys stand out as obvious candidates to lose their spots. Huff had a nice run as a swingman late in the season but he has a) not been mentioned as part of any kind of Spring Training competition, and b) been replaced as the lefty out of the bullpen by Thorton. As a soft-tosser in a tiny ballpark in the AL East with no track record of big league success, he’s exactly the kind of guy you want to dump too early rather than too late.
Wells, meanwhile, has been relegated to sixth outfielder status by the Ellsbury and Beltran signings. He doesn’t hit lefties (89 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2013) and his power completely vanished in mid-May last season. He also doesn’t play anything more than passable defense and isn’t particularly versatile. Wells is a man without a role now that he’s stopped hitting southpaws, making him a prime roster cut candidate. The fact that he counts as zero dollars against the luxury tax (the Yankees owe him $2.4M in real dollars next season) makes walking away a little easier to swallow.
* * *
Whenever the Beltran contract is made official, it would make sense that Wells would lose his 40-man roster spot as the corresponding roster move. The Yankees would still have Ellsbury, Beltran, Soriano, Gardner, and Ichiro at the big league level with Almonte slated for Triple-A. Cutting Wells for Beltran is so obvious and makes so much sense it probably won’t happen. I wouldn’t be surprised if they cut Huff instead.
Either way, both guys seem likely to lose their 40-man spots in the coming weeks given the roster crunch. After them, I would guess Marshall and Flores are most at risk of being cut. An Ichiro trade and/or an A-Rod suspension would both make life a little easier and give the team some added flexibility. Once Huff and Wells are gone, the Yankees are going to have to make some real tough decisions when it comes to fitting everyone on the roster heading into next season.
If you’re interested, Dan Szymborski published his ZiPS projections for the current Yankees roster over at FanGraphs today. The graphic above includes the WAR projections. Just to be clear, projections are not predictions. The system is just spitting out an estimation of each players’ current talent level. I wouldn’t take the projections to heart even though ZiPS has been the most accurate of the various systems (on a macro scale) for a while now. Just look at ‘em for fun.
Some quick observations: Holy cow that infield is awful. ZiPS has Ellsbury hitting 14 homers, which would be awesome. The system likes Dean Anna and J.R. Murphy (both 1.6 WAR) but hates Brett Marshall (-3.1 WAR (!)). I wonder if any other player projects that poorly. After David Robertson, the current bullpen is just about replacement level or worse. ZiPS thinks Derek Jeter is toast (0.4 WAR) while Alex Rodriguez has a tiny something left in the tank (1.0 WAR).
As the disclaimer in the ZiPS post says, don’t add up the projected WAR total and use that to come up with an expected 2014 win total. The system doesn’t work like that. If it did, the Yankees would be pretty screwed. Click the link to scroll through the individual projections if you’re so inclined.
Rumor has it Carlos Beltran will be introduced at a press conference on Friday, though the Yankees have not yet officially announced anything. If true, the announcement should come within the next 24 hours or so. I’m guessing the Yankees will wait until after the holidays to finalize the Brian Roberts and Matt Thornton signings. That will give them some time to get the 40-man roster situation figured out.
This is your open thread for the evening. Every local hockey and basketball club is in action except for the Islanders, so lots to talk about. Anything goes here. Enjoy.
The Yankees agreed to sign reliever Matt Thornton to a two-year contract yesterday, and today David Laurila at FanGraphs posted an interview with the southpaw. He spoke about his development from a guy who “still knew nothing about pitching” when he was drafted into one of the best relievers in baseball, as well as his struggles in the ninth inning and his succeess throwing almost nothing but fastballs. Thornton’s unconventional career path is pretty fascinating, so check it out. · (2) ·
Via Jon Heyman: The Diamondbacks and Eric Chavez have agreed to a new contract. No word on the terms, but it’s probably a one-year deal worth a couple million bucks. Chavez hit nine homers with a 114 wRC+ in 254 plate appearances for Arizona this past season.
The Yankees reportedly had interest in bringing Chavez back earlier this offseason, before signing Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts. The team still needs infield help but it appears they will wait for the ruling in Alex Rodriguez’s appeal to be handed down before making another position player move. They also need a right-handed hitter; there are enough lefties on the roster as is. Chavez was an option for the Yankees but not a great fit. · (24) ·
Shane Greene | RHP
Greene is from the Orlando suburb of Clermont. He played both baseball and basketball at East Ridge High School but wasn’t much of a pro prospect, so he went undrafted in 2007 and followed through on his commitment to the University of West Florida. Greene was a mop-up as a freshman, pitching to a 7.71 ERA with 30 strikeouts and 17 walks in 28 innings spread across four spot starts and eight relief appearances. He blew out his elbow late in the season and had Tommy John surgery in May 2008.
The Argos took his scholarship away following the injury, so Greene transferred to Daytona Beach Community College. He didn’t pitch as a sophomore and wasn’t on the draft radar at all. Greene was throwing a bullpen session at his high school when he asked a Yankees scout (who was there to see someone else) to watch him throw and put in a good word with the University of Central Florida. The team ended up bringing him to Tampa for a workout three weeks before the draft.
Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Greene as one of the 80 best prospects in Florida prior to the 2009 draft following his lost year. The Yankees liked what they saw during the workout enough to select him in the 15th round (465th overall) even though he had not pitched in an actual game in over a year. He signed relatively quickly for $100k, below the maximum $150k slot recommendation for picks after the fifth round under the old system.
Once it became clear that they weren’t making progress with Robinson Cano, the Yankees acted. They moved quickly on Jacoby Ellsbury, but weren’t quite done yet. As Newsday’s David Lennon said, the Yankees were ready to act the night before Cano signed with Seattle. Once the signing was confirmed, it was pretty obvious that they’d sign a hitter in short order. When we learned that hitter was Carlos Beltran, it was no surprise. The Yankees had been linked to Beltran not only earlier this off-season, but also in 2011 and 2004. The fit seemed obvious.
Yet it appears Beltran might not have been the Yankees’ top choice. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan shares an anecdote that shines a different light on the situation.
In the aftermath of Robinson Cano’s defection to Seattle, New York presented Choo a seven-year, $140 million deal, three sources outside the Yankees’ organization told Yahoo Sports. When Boras countered asking for more money – one source indicated he wanted “Ellsbury money,” or $153 million over seven years – the Yankees pulled the offer and signed Carlos Beltran to a three-year, $45 million deal.
With four starting outfielders now in the fold, it’s unlikely that the Yankees will get back into Choo talks. It wouldn’t seem a wise use of resources, given the needs of the pitching staff. But it’s interesting to see that the Yankees were willing to spend $20 million per year for seven years on Choo, rather than the $15 million per year for three years on Beltran.
It might seem foolish to turn down such money, but Boras is known for doing right by his clients. Chances are Choo will stay on the market for the time being; with at least a half dozen, and more realistically a dozen, teams pursuing Masahiro Tanaka, there could be a few losers with money to spend. At that point, one of them will probably ante up “Ellsbury money” to get the deal done.
I was planning to write one of these thoughts posts this week anyway, but at least yesterday’s activity gives me a decent title. The Yankees agreed to sign both second baseman Brian Roberts (one-year, $2M) and left-hander Matt Thornton (two years, $7M), two moves that put a small dent in a lengthy offseason wish list. They still need a third baseman, a starting pitcher, another reliever (preferably two), and general depth. Here are some nuggets for the time being.
1. The Roberts signing really doesn’t accomplish much in my opinion. You can’t count on him to stay healthy and even if he does manage to stay healthy, there’s no guarantee he’ll be any good. Gotta hope his .284/.327/.441 (109 wRC+) line against left-handers this past season was legit and not just noise from a 110 plate appearance sample because his .249/.312/.392 (90 wRC+) overall line was pretty mediocre. Everyone loves those high-risk, high-reward signings, but I think Roberts is better described as low-risk, low-reward. The Yankees are said to be seeking more infield help and that’s a good thing. I’m not sure they actually added any yesterday.
2. Thornton, on the other hand, is a real nice pickup as long as Joe Girardi uses him as a true lefty specialist and doesn’t force him out there against righties. He was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball once upon a time but that is no longer the case. Thornton has been better than Boone Logan against same-side hitters these last few years (doesn’t strike out as many but also gives up fewer extra-base hits) and the Yankees landed him for less than half the total cost. Heck, they got him for less than J.P. Howell (two years, $11.5M). Everyone wants a lefty reliever who can handle both lefties and righties, but there aren’t many of those guys around. As long as Girardi keeps him away from righties, Thornton should be very useful.
3. At some point soon, the Yankees will need to open 40-man roster spots for Roberts, Thornton, and the still not officially signed Carlos Beltran. Vernon Wells and David Huff stand out as obvious candidates to be taken off the roster, but after them? I have no idea. Ramon Flores and Nik Turley could end up going, but the latter would surely get plucked off waivers since he has minor league options remaining and is both left-handed and breathing. It seems unlikely Eduardo Nunez will go because the team isn’t in the position to give away middle infield depth. Maybe they’re working on dumping Ichiro Suzuki for some salary relief, which would also clear a spot. Either way, the Yankees have a serious roster crunch at the moment.
4. Grant Balfour (two years, $15M with the Orioles) and Jose Veras (one year, $4M with the Cubs) signed with new teams yesterday and both guys made a ton of sense for the Yankees, especially on those terms. Those are pretty sweet contracts, more than reasonable in this market. Both guys were handed the closer’s role by their new teams though, so this isn’t a simple “they should have matched the offers” situation. David Robertson should get the ninth inning next season for reasons Joe outlined over the weekend, but damn, I would have loved to see the Yankees add Balfour and/or Veras on those deals.
5. The Yankees have committed just under $231M to five outfielders over the last calendar year (Ichiro, Wells, Alfonso Soriano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Beltran), which is mind-blowing. Only one of them is younger than 35 and only one (Beltran) feels like a lock to post an .800+ OPS next year as well. Sure, Soriano could do it, but he needed that huge finish with New York to finish with a .791 OPS this past season. He turns 38 next month and, as Ichiro and David Justice showed, big finishes following a midseason trade don’t always carry over to the next season. The point of this is … I dunno. I guess that the team has spent a ton of money on outfield help over the last year and didn’t get a whole lot of offensive help in return.
6. This crossed my mind the other day and I figured I’d bring it up here: how long will it be before another homegrown Yankee tops a .900 OPS while playing a full season/qualifying for the batting title? The last five guys to do it were Robinson Cano (2010 and 2012), Jorge Posada (2003 and 2007), Derek Jeter (1999 and 2006), Bernie Williams (1996-2002), and Don Mattingly (1984-1987), so it’s not exactly a common occurrence. Gary Sanchez is a possibility but the kid is 21 with only 23 games of experience above Single-A. Hard to pin it on him. There’s no obvious candidate. Could it be another ten years (the gap between Mattingly and Bernie) before it happens again? Fifteen? Five?