River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » A.J. Cole

Yanks sign Hutchison, lose Cole and Alberto on waivers among flurry of roster moves

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Hutchison. (Michael Owens/Getty)

Friday was a very busy day for the Yankees. In addition to all the arbitration filing deadline activity, they also agreed to a two-year contract with DJ LeMahieu, and announced several smaller transactions as well. Here is a recap of the day’s moves:

  • Officially announced three-year deal with LHP Zach Britton.
  • RHP A.J. Cole claimed off waivers by the Indians.
  • IF Hanser Alberto claimed off waivers by the Orioles.
  • Signed RHP Drew Hutchison to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.
  • Signed OF Matt Lipka to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.

The Yankees haven’t announced the LeMahieu signing yet. That is still pending a physical and it’ll be a few days. The Britton deal is technically a three-year contract, but, functionally, it is a two-year deal with a two-year club option and a one-year player option. Two years vs. three years doesn’t change anything with regards to the luxury tax. Britton still counts as $13M against the luxury tax payroll annually.

Cole, 27, was designated for assignment last week to clear 40-man roster space for Troy Tulowitzki. I thought the Yankees might be able to trade him for cash or a player to be named later, but no luck. They lost him on waivers to the Indians for nothing. Oh well. Cole had a 4.26 ERA (4.92 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts in 38 innings for New York last season. He came over in a cash trade with the Nationals and had a few good weeks before falling apart.

Alberto was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Britton, then was claimed by the Orioles a few hours later. I thought it was kinda weird the Yankees would unload infield depth given Troy Tulowitzki’s general fragility, then a few hours later the LeMahieu news broke, and it all made sense. The Yankees claimed Alberto from the Rangers a few weeks ago. He’s a great defender but not much of a hitter. Now he’s an Oriole.

Hutchison, 28, started Opening Day for the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium only four years ago, but injuries and ineffectiveness have dogged him since. He had a 6.75 ERA (6.42 FIP) in 42.2 innings with the Rangers and Phillies last season, and a 2.14 ERA (3.29 FIP) in 42 Triple-A innings. For what it’s worth (nothing), I signed Hutchison to be Triple-A Scranton’s veteran innings guy as part of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan. Now the Yankees have done the same.

The 26-year-old Lipka is a former high draft pick (35th overall in 2010) who stalled out with the Braves. He spent last season in Double-A with the Giants and hit .240/.329/.352 (91 wRC+) with four homers and 21 steals. Lipka has a little Triple-A time and I imagine he’ll spend the coming season as the roving Double-A and Triple-A depth outfielder. He’s not a prospect anymore. Just a roster filler signing.

Hutchison and Lipka join catcher Ryan Lavarnway, infielder Gio Urshela, lefty Rex Brothers, lefty Danny Coulombe, and outfielder Billy Burns as minor league contract depth pickups this winter. You never know with these things, but that might be it for the non-roster signings. If nothing else, the Yankees have addressed all Triple-A Scranton’s roster needs.

Update: Yanks sign Tulowitzki, designate Cole for assignment

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(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Friday: The Yankees announced the Tulowitzki signing earlier today, so it’s a done deal. No word on his number. Tulowitzki wore No. 2 with the Rockies and Blue Jays because he idolizes Derek Jeter. No. 2 is retired and No. 22 is taken (Jacoby Ellsbury). The Yankees could give him No. 12 and bump Tyler Wade to No. 14, which is the number he wanted last year before the Neil Walker signing. Well, whatever. Tulowitzki’s number is a #thingtowatch.

“I can’t say what it would take us out of, but we’re going into this with a commitment level to try Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop,” said Brian Cashman during a conference call, adding it’s been made clear Didi Gregorius will be the starting shortstop when he returns. It’s been reported that, if the Yankees manage to sign Manny Machado, they would play him at third base and Tulowitzki at short. Also, it turns out Tulowitzki had multiple workouts for the Yankees before signing.

To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, righty A.J. Cole was designated for assignment. He had a nice little two-month run last season after coming over from the Nationals in a cash trade, but he really fell apart in the second half, and Cole finished the year with a 4.26 ERA (4.92 FIP) in 38 innings in pinstripes. He did have a 29.2% strikeout rate, so that’s cool. My guess is Cole will be traded for cash or a player to be named later. I don’t think he’ll clear waivers and remain in the organization a non-40-man roster player.

Tuesday: According to Jeff Passan, the Yankees have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent infielder Troy Tulowitzki. The contract is pending a physical, which is no small thing given his injury history. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki last month and still owe him $38M the next two years. The Yankees are only responsible for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum ($555,000).

Tulowitzki, 34, has not played since July 2017 due to various injuries, including a pair of heel surgeries. He hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) in 260 plate appearances when healthy two years ago. The Yankees have never been shy about bringing in former stars as reclamation projects (Darryl Strawberry, Eric Chavez, etc.) and Tulowitzki fits the mold. Watch him hit .300/.350/.475 or something.

Passan says that while Tulowitzki is expected to play shortstop while Didi Gregorius rehabs from Tommy John surgery, the signing doesn’t take the Yankees out of the running for Manny Machado. It’s a low cost, low risk signing that’s easy to back out of should a better option come along. This signing is more about adding depth than bringing in a no-doubt solution to the middle infield situation.

It’s worth noting that, when he worked out for scouts last month, Tulowitzki said he’s willing to play second or third base, but he doesn’t want to be a utility man. If he makes the Opening Day roster, either he’s going to start somewhere or he’s had a change of heart about the whole utility player thing. We’ll see. Anyway, one or two clutch doubles and you’ll all love him.

Taking stock of the 2019 Yankees with two months to go until Spring Training

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Where does Bird fit in? (Omar Rawlings/Getty)

At the moment the Yankees are a little more than halfway through their offseason. It has been 68 days since their ALDS Game Four loss and there are 58 days to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Hooray for being closer to Spring Training than the ALDS. Baseball is approaching.

The Yankees have been fairly busy this offseason, most notably adding James Paxton and re-signing several players (Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia). They also added some depth pieces through waiver claims and minor trades. Still on the offseason to-do list is find a Didi Gregorius replacement and also bolster the bullpen. That’s the short version. There are still other needs as well.

With the Winter Meetings over and the Yankees slightly more than halfway through their offseason, I figured this was as good a time as any to take a step back and examine the current state of the roster. The projected 25-man Opening Day roster, that is. Here’s what we know right now:

Catcher Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Luke Voit LF Brett Gardner J.A. Happ Dellin Betances
2B G. Torres/OPEN CF Aaron Hicks James Paxton Aroldis Chapman
SS G. Torres/OPEN RF Aaron Judge CC Sabathia Chad Green
3B Miguel Andujar OF Giancarlo Stanton Luis Severino Jonathan Holder
Masahiro Tanaka OPEN
BENCH DISABLED LIST OPEN
Austin Romine Didi Gregorius LIMBO OPEN
OPEN Ben Heller Jacoby Ellsbury OPEN
OPEN Jordan Montgomery Sonny Gray

Also on the 40-man roster: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Parker Bridwell, RHP Luis Cessa, RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Domingo German, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Stephen Tarpley, C Kyle Higashioka, IF Hanser Alberto, 1B Greg Bird, IF Thairo Estrada, UTIL Tyler Wade, UTIL Tim Locastro, OF Clint Frazier.

That is a sneaky number of OPEN spots! I count seven. Four in the bullpen, two on the bench, and one at either second base or shortstop. The Yankees of course have in-house options for those seven OPEN spots and, in some cases, the in-house options are preferable to spending on a back of the roster player(s). Why spend money on a utility infielder who is no lock to perform better than Wade or Albert or Locastro, you know?

There are 18 healthy players on the 40-man roster who are not part of my projected big league roster in that table. We can drop those 18 players into one of five buckets. Let’s do exactly that.

1. Going to the minors (4). I think we can safely assume Abreu, Acevedo, Higashioka, and Estrada are going to begin 2019 in the minors. Higashioka is the third catcher and both Abreu and Acevedo have development remaining. They’re not MLB ready. Estrada missed basically the entire 2018 season with various injuries and needs to catch up on lost at-bats. The Yankees have plenty of other infield options.

2. Out of options (6). Six of those 18 players can not be sent to the minors next year without passing through waivers: Alberto, Bridwell, Cessa, Cole, German, and Kahnle. Chances are a few of these guys will be gone before Spring Training begins — the Yankees still have to open a 40-man spot for Happ, for example — but they’re on the roster right now, so they get dropped in this bucket.

Being out of options does not guarantee a player an MLB roster spot but it can be a tiebreaker. If, for example, the final bench spot comes down to Alberto or Wade, it could go to Alberto because he can’t be sent down and Wade can. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want German (long man/spot starter) and Kahnle (middle reliever) to shove in Spring Training and grab bullpen spots. But, if Bridwell or Cessa or Cole appear to be better options, then they’ll get the Opening Day bullpen assignments.

3. Other bullpen candidates (4). Adams, Harvey, Loaisiga, and Tarpley are bullpen candidates in addition to those out-of-options arms. Tarpley strikes me as most likely to win an Opening Day roster spot simply based on the fact he impressed enough in September to get an ALDS roster spot. Also, he and Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, and Chapman’s the closer. He’s not going to be brought into a sixth inning matchup situation. Left-on-left relievers are largely disappearing from baseball, but Tarpley could crack the Opening Day roster.

Tarpley. (Getty)

My hunch is the Yankees want Loaisiga to go to Triple-A to begin next year. He impressed in his four-start cameo this summer (not so much in September) but the kid has never pitched in Triple-A and he has 196 career innings to his credit. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry Loaisiga in their bullpen next year if he’s one of their best options — he has a scary injury history and you might as well get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again — but, in a perfect world, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A for more tune-up work.

Adams and Harvey are straight up bullpen candidates. Surely the Yankees hope to have better options come Spring Training, but, if they don’t, Adams and especially Harvey could win bullpen jobs. Adams might be at a disadvantage given his ability to start. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter and go with someone else in the bullpen. Adams wouldn’t be the first guy to lose out on a big league bullpen gig because the team wants stash him in Triple-A as a starter.

4. Second base/shortstop options (2). Assuming Estrada is indeed ticketed for Triple-A, the top in-house second base/shortstop candidates aside from Alberto are Locastro and Wade. I expect the Yankees to add a middle infielder at some point between now and Spring Training, but, if they don’t, those are the internal options. Locastro and Wade (and Alberto). Seeing how Wade was the Opening Day second basemen this year, and Locastro is more of an outfielder who can play second base than the other way around, I think Wade would be the guy right now. If the season started today, Wade and Gleyber Torres would be the starting middle infielders. That’s what I think.

5. Other bench candidates (2). We’re down to two names: Bird and Frazier. Two former top prospects who have lost a lot of time to injuries in recent years. We know all about Bird’s problems. Last year’s oblique injury and this year’s concussion issues have limited Frazier to 745 plate appearances and 182 total games the last two years. That’s a real bummer. Had he been healthy this past season, Clint could’ve filled in for Judge in August and who knows, perhaps he plays well enough to win the 2019 left field job outright and convince the Yankees to move on from Gardner.

As for Bird, gosh, I don’t know what the Yankees will do with him. Voit has clearly jumped him on the first base depth chart, but the Yankees do love Bird, and would it really shock anyone if they carried him on the bench next year? I mean, they did this year, right? It’s one thing to do it in August and just buy time until rosters expand on September 1st. It’s another to do it on Opening Day. The Yankees are an eight-man bullpen/three-man bench team and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a backup first baseman seems … unwise.

The x-factor here is Ellsbury. He’s coming back from major hip surgery and Brian Cashman is already hedging against Ellsbury being ready for Opening Day, but, if he is ready, he might get a bench spot by default. I think it is far more likely the Yankees will release Ellsbury than carry him on the roster next year, but what do I know? If he’s healthy and Frazier needs Triple-A time after all the injuries, carrying Ellsbury as the reserve outfielder could very well be in the cards. As for Gray, the other guy in limbo, he’s a goner. He’ll be traded at some point.

* * *

To me, Locastro is the under-the-radar guy to watch. He can play almost anywhere, he’s a .307/.402/.443 (128 wRC+) hitter in 471 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a great runner (169-for-208 career stealing bases, an 81% success rate), and he doesn’t strike out much (career 11.5% strikeouts). I’m not saying I want Locastro on the Opening Day roster. I’m just saying he’s currently the odds on favorite to be this year’s “no one expected him to make the team but he did” guy.

Anyway, we had seven OPEN spots in our original table and this is how I think the Yankees would fill them if the season started today, which thankfully it does not.

Catcher Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Voit LF Gardner Happ CL Chapman
2B Torres/Wade CF Hicks Paxton SU Betances
SS Torres/Wade RF Judge Sabathia SU Green
3B Andujar OF Stanton Severino MR Holder
BENCH Tanaka MR Kahnle
C Romine DISABLED LIST MR Tarpley
IF Alberto Ellsbury Heller LG Cessa
UTIL Locastro Gregorius Montgomery LG German

That leaves the out-of-options Bridwell and Cole out in the cold — the Yankees really seems to like Cessa — Loaisiga and Frazier getting regular playing time in Triple-A, and Bird in Scranton. As much as the Yankees like (or liked, once upon a time) Bird, I think they’re at the point where they need to see health and production before giving him a roster spot. That Voit is around as a viable first base alternative makes this even more likely.

Would the Yankees play Wade at second base and Torres at shortstop, or the other way around? Either way works, really. I think I’d prefer Wade at short and Torres at second because second base is Gleyber’s likely long-term position and he still has only 132 career games worth of experience at the position. My preference, whether the Yankees go internal with Wade (nah) or bring in a middle infielder from outside the organization (yup), is to keep Torres at second base. I’d have no problem with him at short. Second would be my preference though.

Anyway, this is all a very long way of me saying the Yankees still have some unresolved roster spots, maybe more than anyone realized. The middle infield is unsettled, two bench spots are unclaimed, and there are four open bullpen spots. It’s easy to see why the Yankees want two relievers, right? Yes, they can fill some of those spots internally and I’m sure they will. Filling all of them internally seems like a non-option though. The good news is there’s lots of offseason remaining. The bad news is the Yankees still have a sneaky large amount of work to do this winter.

The Sub-Replacement Relievers [2018 Season Review]

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A.J. Cole (Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees bullpen was nothing short of great this year, despite some noteworthy implosions and the occasionally questionable usage patterns. It ranked first in baseball in fWAR by a full win, and also paced the league in K% and WPA. And, even in the face of the occasional meltdown, they ranked second-to-last in FanGraphs meltdown metric – meaning those rough patches happened less frequently than all but one other team.

That, of course, does not mean that they were without weak links in the chain. Let’s take a look at their two worst relievers this year, beginning with:

A.J. Cole

On April 23, the Yankees acquired Cole from the Nationals for cash considerations. It was essentially a nothing trade, with an eye towards depth rather than tangible improvements to the front end of the bullpen. There was some semblance of a notion that Cole could be more than that, given that he had only just turned 26, and was only a few years removed from being one of the 50 or so best prospects in baseball. His 5.32 ERA in 110.0 big league innings left a great deal to be desired – but, for cash and cash alone, it was a worthwhile move regardless of expectations.

And Cole kicked-off his Yankees career in rather grand fashion, tossing five straight scoreless outings, and pitching to the following line: 8.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 BB, 12 K. It was notable that those five appearances came over a four week span, so it wasn’t as though he was working regularly; moreover, the average leverage index was 0.73, which means that those appearances were predominantly low-pressure. But, even so, it seemed that Brian Cashman may’ve found another weapon for the bullpen.

Cole took his first lumps as a Yankee on May 28, allowing a run in 2.1 IP against the Astros. That, however, represented his worst appearance in his first three months with the team (albeit in just 13 games in that span). In that time Cole pitched to a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 IP, allowing just 18 base-runners while striking out 28. And, as a testament to his effectiveness, he did not allow a single one of his five inherited runners to score.

Was there something tangible here to tell us that he might be for real? Yes, actually: the Yankees anti-fastball approach.

As a member of the Nationals, Cole was throwing between 52 and 70% fastballs; with the Yankees, he threw 25.4% overall. He primarily replaced the fastball with sliders, and that made sense, given that (as per BrooksBaseball) his fastball was his worst pitch, and the slider his best. And it paid huge dividends for several month.

And then Cole fell apart.

It doesn’t bear reliving to a significant degree, but Cole would go on to make 15 more appearances in 2018, and he’d allow at least 1 run in 9 of those games. His line: 16.1 IP, 27 H, 21 R, 16 ER, 10 BB, 21 K, 8.82 ERA. Batters hit .346/.420/.744 with 8 home runs in 88 PA in this time, and Yankees fans had a collective coronary whenever he graced the mound.

What was the reason for this backslide? It’s not entirely clear. His velocity was steady, and batters continued to struggle against his slider even as he fell apart. It may’ve just been a matter of regression to the mean combined with the league learning to simply avoid his slider.

Cole ended the Bronx portion of his season with a 4.26 ERA in 38.0 ERA, which works out to a slightly above-average 103 ERA+. He still has five years of team control remaining, as per Baseball-Reference; he’s out of options, though, so he’d have to pass through waivers if the Yankees wanted to send him down. I could see him remaining with the organization as a depth arm, but there’s a good chance he’s done in pinstripes.

Tommy Kahnle

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Yankees acquired Kahnle from the White Sox a couple of weeks before the 2017 trade deadline, along with Todd Frazier and David Robertson. The latter two had more name value, but Kahnle was thought to be the the biggest and best chip in the deal. It’s not hard to see why, either; he was 27 at the time, came with four-plus seasons of team control remaining, and had been utterly dominant since first suiting up with the South Siders in 2017.

Kahnle was pretty darn good with the Yankees in 2017, pitching to a 2.70 ERA (169 ERA+) in 26.2 IP, and continuing to mow down batters to the tune of a 31.3% strikeout rate. His walk rate spiked from 5.0% in Chicago to 8.7% in the Bronx, which was somewhat disconcerting – but it was still league-average, and it didn’t hinder his overall effectiveness. All signs pointed to Kahnle being a true weapon in the late innings.

And then Kahnle opened the season with a stark reduction in his velocity, and limped out to a 6.14 ERA in his first six appearances. There was nothing promising about those outings, either; I suppose you could point to his 9 strikeouts in 7.1 IP, but those were countered by 8 walks, and it looked like the pre-Chicago version of Kahnle was back. It was so bothersome that there was a collective sigh of relief when he hit the DL with tendinitis on April 17, as it meant that there was an underlying cause for his awfulness beyond him … well … being awful.

Kahnle made a couple of tune-up appearances in the minors in late May, and didn’t look too good, allowing five hits (including a home run) and two runs in three innings. There were reports that his velocity was still down, but he nevertheless rejoined the team and returned to big league action on May 26. He faced-off against the Angels that day, and allowed two hits, two walks, and four runs in 0.2 IP. His fastball velocity was back above 96 MPH, but he looked bad. And he was back in the minors a week later.

Kahnle spent all of June and July in Triple-A, and he was effective, pitching to a 2.18 ERA and striking out 31 (against 8 walks) in 20.2 IP. The velocity was still down in the 95-96 range, instead of the 98ish that we saw in 2017, but he was getting outs, and that’s what matters. His free agency was also delayed for a year, which is a fringe benefit (assuming that he’s worth having around).

The now 29-year-old returned to the Yankees for good in mid-August, but the struggles continued. He appeared in fifteen games from that point forward, pitching to a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 IP; he continued to strike out batters in droves, with 19 strikeouts, and his 5 walks were palatable – but he was hit hard when batters did make contact. It was ugly. All told, Kahnle pitched to a 6.56 ERA (67 ERA+) in 23.1 big league innings.

Unlike Cole, it’s easy to pinpoint a reason for Kahnle’s struggles – and it comes in graph form.

Kahnle’s fastball averaged 97.0 MPH in 2016, 98.1 in 2017, and 95.5 in 2018 – and that’s incredibly significant. His other offerings dipped at similar rates, too, so it does make one wonder if the aforementioned shoulder tendinitis played a role throughout the season. His overall walk rate of 14.0% was awful, but his walks trended downwards when he was recalled, and it didn’t really matter; Kahnle’s biggest issue was that batters were able to square-up all of his pitches and drive them with authority. The fact that he wasn’t locating didn’t help, of course, but it’s a bit easier to get away with that when you have truly elite stuff (see: Betances, Dellin).

The Yankees have three more years of team control remaining on Kahnle, and this will be his second trip through arbitration as a Super Two. He’s slated to earn about $1.5 MM this year, and I fully expect the team to keep him around for at least another season, with the hopes that an off-season of rest will cure what ails him.

Another attempt at a bad contract for bad contract trade with Jacoby Ellsbury

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(Presswire)

The 2018-19 offseason is now underway, and over the next several months the Yankees will look to improve their big league roster while sticking to some sort of budget. Every team has a budget. Some teams have bigger budgets than others, but every team has a budget. This past season the Yankees’ budget was the $197M luxury tax threshold, and they stuck to it. They stayed under the threshold.

The luxury tax threshold jumps to $206M next year and the early indications are Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t want to exceed the threshold. “I don’t want to speak for (Hal Steinbrenner), but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us,” said Brian Cashman recently, referring to the fact a portion of the money paid into luxury tax is distributed to other teams.

Cashman indicated he can go to Hal to get approval to exceed the threshold, and I sure hope that is the case, because there are some great free agents out there this winter. Either way, that $206M number is an obstacle of some sorts, and my estimate says the Yankees have $49.7M to spend underneath the threshold. That’s a lot! Not enough for a truly massive free agent spending spree, but it is a lot.

As the Yankees move through the winter they will have to navigate around Jacoby Ellsbury’s albatross contract. There are still two years and roughly $47M remaining on that deal, and Ellsbury missed the entire 2018 season with injuries. It’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough for Opening Day. This is also a guy who hit .261/.331/.372 (91 wRC+) in his last 1,500 plate appearances. Now he’s a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery. Yuck.

Trading Ellsbury for value is pretty much a pipe dream at this point. The best case scenario is trading him and saving some money, and, even then, the Yankees will have to kick in a sweeter. Remember the Chase Headley trade? The Yankees attached Bryan Mitchell to Headley and saved $13M (!) against the luxury tax this year. Doing something similar with Ellsbury feels like it would take a minor miracle, at least something that leads to that much savings.

Rather than shoot for the moon, I think I’ve found a smaller bad contract for bad contract swap that could work for both teams. The details:

  • Yankees get: Wei-Yin Chen
  • Marlins get: Jacoby Ellsbury and an out of options arm

No, it is not the most exciting trade in the world, but it doesn’t have to be exciting to be worthwhile. Long story short, the Yankees and Marlins would move some money around, which would improve the luxury tax situation in the Bronx and send a younger pitcher to Miami. Let’s break this down.

1. How does the math work? The Yankees and Marlins are concerned about very different numbers. The Yankees are worried more about the luxury tax hit than the actual salary. They care about the actual salary too, don’t get me wrong, but the luxury tax has been driving all their decisions recently. The Marlins, meanwhile, are focused on actual salary. They’re not close to the luxury tax threshold. Luxury tax hits mean nothing to them.

Both Ellsbury and Chen have two years remaining on their contracts. Ellsbury is owed approximately $47M while Chen is owed $42M. Here’s the full breakdown:

Chen Ellsbury
2019 Salary $20M $21.14M
2020 Salary $22M $21.14M
Option Buyout
 N/A $5M
Total Remaining $42M $47.28M
Contract
 5 yrs, $80M 7 yrs, $153M
Contract AAV $16M $21.86M

A straight up trade would save the Yankees $5.86M against the luxury tax in 2019 and again in 2020 ($21.86M minus $16M). They wouldn’t save $13M like the Headley trade, but it’s something, and something is better than nothing. Ellsbury hasn’t played since last year and he’s just sitting on the roster, soaking up luxury tax payroll space. This at least clears some of that space.

Of course, a straight one-for-one trade means the Marlins would absorb $5.28M in real salary spread across 2019-20 ($47.28M minus $42M). Would they do that? Not out of the kindness of their hearts. That’s where the out of options arm comes in.

2. Why would the Marlins do this? The Marlins have two options. One, they could keep Chen and pay him that $42M the next two years. Chen is 33 years old, he has a 4.75 ERA (4.38 FIP) over the last three seasons, and he’s missed a bunch of time with lingering elbow trouble. He has no long-term value to a rebuilding team like Miami. He’s an innings guy they hope will stay healthy and pitch well enough to create some trade value, which is unlikely. That rarely happens.

Or two, they could make the trade outlined above and essentially buy a young pitcher. The Yankees have three out of options pitchers, meaning they can’t be sent to the minors next season without going through waivers: Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, and Domingo German. (Tommy Kahnle is out of options too, but I don’t think he’d interest the Marlins.) I’d rank those three pitchers German, Cessa, Cole in that order. Remember that $5.28M the Marlins would have to eat in the trade? How’s this work:

  1. Marlins eat all $5.28M and get German.
  2. Marlins eat half the $5.28M and get Cessa.
  3. Marlins eat none of the $5.28M and get Cole.

The more money Miami eats, the better the pitcher they get in return. (Who the Marlins consider the best pitcher may not be who I consider the best pitcher, obviously.) If they eat the $5.28M difference in salary, they get a the best young pitcher in German and the Yankees get Chen with a $16M luxury tax hit. If the Yankees have to eat the entire $5.28M, the Marlins get the worst out of options arm in Cole and the Yankees get Chen with an $18.64M luxury tax hit — that’s the $5.28M cut in half and added to the $16M in 2019 and 2020 — which is still $3.22M in luxury tax savings in 2019 and 2020.

So it boils down to this: The Marlins can either keep Chen, who has no value to them, or make the trade and get a young enough arm who might help long-term. They’re buying a young arm, basically. Keep in mind Marlins executive Gary Denbo was the Yankees’ farm system head from 2014-17. He presumably has some insight into German and Cessa, which could help push things along. The $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Marlins have to pay it to someone no matter that. They can either pay it to Ellsbury and get a younger pitcher in the process, or pay it to Chen.

(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

3. Why would the Yankees do this? For the luxury tax savings, obviously. The worst case scenario here is eating the $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in Cole, who is probably not going to stick on the roster all offseason anyway, and saving $3.22M against the luxury tax payroll. The best case scenario is the shedding the full $5.28M difference in salaries and giving up a spare out of options arm in German, who also might not stick on the roster all offseason, and saving $5.86M against the luxury tax. Worthwhile either way.

What do the Yankees do with Chen? Beats me. They could simply release him. I’d recommend taking Chen into Spring Training and seeing whether he can help in some capacity, even as a mop-up guy, then making a decision at the end of camp. Again, the $40-something-million is a sunk cost. The Yankees have to pay it no matter what, and, right now, they’re paying it to Ellsbury to do nothing. Maybe they can instead pay it to Chen to soak up low-leverage innings. The primary objective here is the luxury tax savings. Anything Chen gives them is a bonus.

4. Why would Ellsbury agree to this? Ellsbury’s contract includes a full no-trade clause. Even if it didn’t, he’s been with the Yankees long enough now to pick up five-and-ten rights, which is kinda crazy. Why would Ellsbury go to the Marlins? There is only one good reason: Because they’ll release him. That’s the condition of the trade. The Marlins have to release Ellsbury immediately after the deal.

It sounds crazy, I know, but it is not unprecedented. Remember the big Dodgers-Braves salary shuffle deal that sent Matt Kemp back to Los Angeles last offseason? Adrian Gonzalez was in that trade and Atlanta had to release him as the condition to get him to waive his no-trade clause. Gonzalez got to keep every penny in his contract and pick his next team, who he could sign with at the pro-rated minimum. Once the Marlins release Ellsbury, he’d still get every penny, he’d get to pick his next team, and it wouldn’t cost anyone anything substantial to sign him. For Ellsbury, that would presumably be preferable to sticking with the Yankees, who don’t seem to have a place for him.

* * *

Over the next two years the Marlins owe Chen $42M and the Yankees owe Ellsbury $47.28M. There’s no getting out of that money. So, to make the best of a bad situation, the two teams could swap those contracts and figure out what to do with the $5.28M difference. Shouldn’t be hard. The Yankees would get a lower luxury tax hit and the Marlins would add a pitcher in his mid-20s with a chance to help long-term. And if he doesn’t, so be it. But at least they get to try.

A win-win? Well, I wouldn’t go that far. This is more like two teams making the best of a bad situation. They’re both stuck paying an unproductive veteran $40-something-million in real dollars the next two years. The Yankees and Marlins can either stick with their current situation, or work with each other to make things a little more palatable. To me, it seems better than staying with the status quo.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

Yankeemetrics: Wild win, playoff ticket punched (Sept. 21-23)

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(AP)

Win is a win
Survive and advance was the theme of Friday’s near-disaster series opener, as the Yankees staved off a late rally to beat the Orioles 10-8. The Yankees led 6-0 entering the fifth inning and 9-4 at the start of the eighth and somehow still needed Dellin Betances to get three outs in the ninth for the save.

CC Sabathia rebounded from a terrible start last week against the Blue Jays, limiting the Orioles to two runs across six innings. It snapped a 10-start winless streak vs. the O’s, the longest by a Yankee pitcher against them in the Divisional era (since 1969). And it was his 128th win as a Yankee, matching Jack Chesbro for 11th place on the franchise all-time list.

The parade of relievers that followed CC’s strong performance did their best to keep him from getting that milestone victory. Jonathan Loaisiga, A.J. Cole and David Robertson were pounded by the Orioles lineup, giving up a trio of longballs while getting only one out each. And for that ugly statline, they get our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series:

This was the first game in franchise history that they Yankees had three guys give up at least one homer while pitching no more than one-third of an inning.

Despite having three regulars on the bench, the Yankees still were able to explode for 10 runs on 10 hits. Aaron Hicks was one of the stars, reaching base four times (and scoring four times), while driving in a couple runs with a two-run homer in the fourth. It was his 25th home run, giving the Yankees five 25-homer players. That’s a nice round number ….

And a #FunFact to celebrate the underrated Hicks: in the last two decades, the only other Yankee leadoff batters to score four or more runs and hit a homer in the same game were Johnny Damon (April 29, 2006) and Derek Jeter (June 21, 2005).

(AP)

Postseason bound
The Yankees officially punched their ticket to the playoff party with a dramatic, 11th-inning walk-off win on Saturday afternoon/night. The last time they clinched a postseason berth with a walkoff win, this happened:


On September 24, 1999, Alfonso Soriano cemented his name in the Yankee record books with his first career hit, a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th against the Rays that wrapped up the AL East title for the Yankees.

Fast-forward nearly two decades and Saturday’s hero was Aaron Hicks, who drilled a one-out double down the left field line in the bottom of the 11th inning, scoring Didi Gregorius to seal the historic win. It was Hicks’ third career walk-off hit and first with the Yankees. He is the first Yankee with a walk-off double in the 11th inning or later since Bernie Williams on August 27, 1998 against the Angels. And, just for fun, he joins this list of legends, Yankee centerfielders (since 1925) that have a walk-off hit against the Orioles/Brown franchise:

  • Aaron Hicks (Sept. 22, 2018)
  • Bernie Williams (1996 ALCS Game 1)
  • Mickey Mantle (Aug. 10, 1956)
  • Joe DiMaggio (Aug. 6, 1949)
  • Joe DiMaggio (July 13, 1938)
(Newsday)

Blown lead, Bad Loss and Boo-birds
Less than 24 hours removed from one of the most exhilarating wins of the season, the Yankees crashed back to earth and capped off the Bronx version of the regular season with a depressing, uninspiring loss on Sunday afternoon. Thanks to another bullpen implosion they coughed up an early 3-0 lead, and the offense went M.I.A. after the first inning as it was held to no runs and just two hits in the final eight frames. The end result: a miserable 6-3 defeat to the 110-loss Orioles.

The turning point came in the sixth inning when A.J. Cole was called on to protect a 3-1 lead, and three batters later he was booed off the mound after all three guys scored, with two of them sending the ball into the seats. Only one other pitcher in franchise history had an outing at Yankee Stadium (old or new) in which he got no outs while giving up at least two homers and three runs: Steve Howe on September 24, 1995 against the Tigers.

Cole — who fortunately will not be on any playoff roster — has been awful over the past two months, with 21 runs and 26 hits (eight homers) allowed in his last 15 innings pitched (14 appearances) since July 31. And his struggles have been dumpster-fire terrible in four September outings:

Rather than end on that miserable note, let’s celebrate another #MiggyMantle milestone. In the third inning, Miguel Andujar belted his 43rd double and 70th extra-base hit of the season. Those 43 doubles are the second-most ever by a Yankee rookie, one shy of the record set by Joe DiMaggio in 1936. Perhaps more impressive is the 70 extra-base hits for a guy as young as Andujar. Since the first Rookie of Year trophy was first handed out in 1947, three other American League rookies age 23 or younger have recorded 70 or more extra-base hits in a season: Nomar Garciaparra (1997), Mark McGwire (1987), and Fred Lynn (1975). Each of those three players won the AL Rookie Year award.